Hitter Volatility: J.P. Arencibia ranks as league's 2nd most inconsistent hitter

[GD]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitter-volatility-through-mid-june/

 

Behind only Albert Pujols. I don't know how credible the stat is but it seems interesting.

 

The Jays are up there as a team, as well.

[JFD]

so much for Pujols being babe ruth

[Angrioter]

JPA

current line

.216/.238./445/.683 OPS..... .229 ISO

 

No dingers line

.167/.191/.221/.412 OPS........054 ISO

 

http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2013/6/17/4439418/j-p-arencibia-and-all-or-nothing-hitting

[dineke]

Cool, JPA is second best at something.

[GD]

Neat thread, but I can't think of a single reason why I should care about this statistic.

 

It's more of a fun fact / another reason to hate JPA, as if we needed one. Plus, the issue of consistency is interesting. Would going (0/3, 0/3, 3/3) or going (1/3, 1/3, 1/3) as a pattern throughout your season be more beneficial to your team? Makes me wonder.

[John_Havok]

I read this also. Very intriguing to know that two payers might have the same overall production/value, but see one that's very streaky and one that's steady and consistent, never too hot or too cold. I wonder if they'd be able to run numbers to see if the consistant wOBA is actually more valuable than the streaky wOBA, if both are equal

[GD]

Would going (0/3, 0/3, 3/3) or going (1/3, 1/3, 1/3) as a pattern throughout your season be more beneficial to your team?

 

I wonder if they'd be able to run numbers to see if the consistant wOBA is actually more valuable than the streaky wOBA, if both are equal

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/does-consistent-play-help-a-team-win/

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/offensive-volatility-and-beating-win-expectancy/

 

Some nice reading material on it. Makes me hate the O's a bit more lol.

[jaysfaithful8]

"Wooo! Top 5!!" - Arencibia

[GD]

"Wooo! Top 5!!" - Arencibia

 

#top2player #Pujolslevel

[TRM]

I don't know what this mean, but somehow it means JPA is extra garbage!

[GD]

I don't think its a bad thing to have poor consistency as long as the overall production is there. I wonder how long things like this take to stabilize? Guys with similar batted-ball profiles probably regress to whatever average is over time.

 

For players, not teams? I would assume more than one season.

 

I wonder, like a comment suggested, if it's possible that a 2.5 WAR player who's consistent is more valuable than a 3.0 WAR one that's wildly inconsistent. Probably not but it's definitely food for thought.

[GD]

I dunno - intuitively I don't see why this would be the case.

 

When I say valuable, I mean contributing to his team's winning. If the 2.5 player went 1/3 every day and the 3.0 player went 0/3, 0/3, 3/3, the first player may help his team more. That'd probably be a WAR/WPA comparison.

[sachmo55]

When I say valuable, I mean contributing to his team's winning. If the 2.5 player went 1/3 every day and the 3.0 player went 0/3, 0/3, 3/3, the first player may help his team more. That'd probably be a WAR/WPA comparison.

 

Im intrigued by this too.

 

In the long run, I'd imagine consistent and inconsistent players would provide the same true value to the team (in terms of generating wins).

But over the course of a single season, a steaky player could possibly make or break a team depending on when their streaks occur.

Would it worth paying a slight premium for one over the other?

 

Another question would be, is inconsistency consistent (i.e. are streaky players forever steaky, or is it mostly just perceptual biases)?

[InAAwetrust]

John buck2.0

[InAAwetrust]

Am glad though they traded high on tad league average catcher is all I ask

[GD]

Another question would be, is inconsistency consistent (i.e. are streaky players forever steaky, or is it mostly just perceptual biases)?

 

I think it was stated in the article that it's kind of noise, that it doesn't correlate too well season to season. Didn't see any data on that though.

[JugglingPitches]

Did you see his post-game interview last night? "I'm not worried at all about my hitting, I'm focused on calling the game and defence."

 

a) This is concerning because you would think a "top 10 catcher, bro" would have a more well-rounded game.

 

His defence is f***ing atrocious and his game calling is horrible, so if he's really focusing on his defence and game calling, this is a huge concern.

 

c) It's obviously his way of copping out of a terrible year at the plate and claiming it doesn't matter.

 

The team is winning now so the heat is off him a bit, but this guy is a bigger clown every time they put a camera on him. He LOVES the camera...trying to set himself up for a career in broadcasting but with a voice like that he's got a better chance of getting a voiceover role for Despicable Me 3.

[Candy Maldonado]

http://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2013/06/19/blue_jays_arencibia_catches_fire_as_team_continues_to_roll_griffin.html

 

 

“It was kind of the game in Chicago where he failed to drive the guy in from third three times, where he kind of said, ‘OK, it’s time to make the adjustment,’” Mottola recalled of the decision to get back to basics upon the team’s arrival in Texas.

 

“We’re trying to get (his front foot down) early. When he’s there early, he has a better chance of recognizing pitches. When he gets in trouble, he gets fast and tries to do too much. We’re trying to take out the peaks and valleys.”

[Caper]

Did you see his post-game interview last night? "I'm not worried at all about my hitting, I'm focused on calling the game and defence."

 

a) This is concerning because you would think a "top 10 catcher, bro" would have a more well-rounded game.

 

His defence is f***ing atrocious and his game calling is horrible, so if he's really focusing on his defence and game calling, this is a huge concern.

 

c) It's obviously his way of copping out of a terrible year at the plate and claiming it doesn't matter.

 

The team is winning now so the heat is off him a bit, but this guy is a bigger clown every time they put a camera on him. He LOVES the camera...trying to set himself up for a career in broadcasting but with a voice like that he's got a better chance of getting a voiceover role for Despicable Me 3.

 

 

His game calling has been excellent over the past couple of weeks. When Rogers gave up his last homerun... He did so because he shook off JPA. He's been fine with MB.

[JugglingPitches]

His game calling has been excellent over the past couple of weeks. When Rogers gave up his last homerun... He did so because he shook off JPA. He's been fine with MB.

 

Admittedly I wasn't able to watch any games last week because I was moving, but I find it hard to believe he's gone from being the worst I've ever seen to "excellent" in such a short span of time. More likely, the pitchers are beginning to take matters into their own hands or someone on the bench is directing JP (which should have happened from the beginning). Either way...

[Caper]

Admittedly I wasn't able to watch any games last week because I was moving, but I find it hard to believe he's gone from being the worst I've ever seen to "excellent" in such a short span of time. More likely, the pitchers are beginning to take matters into their own hands or someone on the bench is directing JP (which should have happened from the beginning). Either way...

 

 

MB himself spoke about how well his game calling has been. I listen to the JPA haters as much as anyone else... But you have to give credit where credit is due.

[JugglingPitches]

MB himself spoke about how well his game calling has been. I listen to the JPA haters as much as anyone else... But you have to give credit where credit is due.

 

In fairness, players say things like that in the media all the time. Not long ago Dickey was saying JP could catch him just fine, and we know how that went. MB could have wanted to throw the guy a bone and get him some positive media attention to boost his confidence. That said, I will withdraw my comment until I watch him more closely the next few games. Been watching the entire Colorado series since I (finally) got my cable back but wasn't really paying much attention to JP since the pitchers have been mowing everyone down.

[Arkadium]

I'm not sure if anyone mentioned this but you gotta give JPA some credit, he's had to learn a record number of new pitchers in a short span... that's gotta be mentally exhausting, maybe now that the rotation is somewhat settling down he's playing an all around better game?

[Caper]

I'm not sure if anyone mentioned this but you gotta give JPA some credit, he's had to learn a record number of new pitchers in a short span... that's gotta be mentally exhausting, maybe now that the rotation is somewhat settling down he's playing an all around better game?

 

Small sample, but yes. Last night Rogers got a bunch of calls out if the zone. Can't say JPAis responsible... But I do t think you can say he's a horrid reciever either.

[GD]

I've never had an issue with his game calling. I don't think it's enough to outweigh his general shittiness, but it's certainly not bad.

[John_Havok]

Small sample, but yes. Last night Rogers got a bunch of calls out if the zone. Can't say JPAis responsible... But I do t think you can say he's a horrid reciever either.

 

Recently I've seen very marginal improvements in JPA's efforts at framing. There's times that he still stabs at the balls not directly where his glove is and still moves way too much overall, but the effort is noticeable.

 

I still hate his game calling though. Not so much pitch selection, but location. You can't throw to the same spot 5 times in a row, then again the next AB to a good hitter and expect him not to figure it out. I don't think he calls for the up and in fastball near enough, not like it has to happen 20 times a game or anything, but when guys are diving over the plate to get the that outside pitch that he just called for 7 times, stand the f***er up!