2013 draft

[GD]

What day is the draft?

 

June 6-8

[Captain Adama]

It is ridiculous that we have barely any good hitters in our system. You would think one of the position players we took high in the last few years (like Anderson, Thon, Smith Jr, ect.) would have turned out to be decent.

 

Funny thing is Smith Jr. was basically supposed to be a refined hitter, he started off really good and then fell off a cliff. oh well.

[GD]

Funny thing is Smith Jr. was basically supposed to be a refined hitter, he started off really good and then fell off a cliff. oh well.

 

Anderson was incredible in 2011 in his pro debut, started off well too.

[theblujay]

Anderson was incredible in 2011 in his pro debut, started off well too.

 

He's only 20, but he batted sub .200 last year

[theblujay]

Funny thing is Smith Jr. was basically supposed to be a refined hitter, he started off really good and then fell off a cliff. oh well.

 

Actually Smith isn't doing too bad. He's only 20 and he has a .262/.348/.377 line in Lansing. Not great, but the best out of the three of them.

[GD]

He's only 20, but he batted sub .200 last year

 

He just strikes out so much. He's got so much talent but he needs to cut down on the damn K's.

[dineke]

I don't know much about prospects but are there no top notch catchers in this year's draft like Zunino? I just want JPA gone.

[GD]

I don't know much about prospects but are there no top notch catchers in this year's draft like Zunino? I just want JPA gone.

 

There most certainly are not. The best bets are Denney and McGuire and they're both HS catchers who... are sketchy at best.

 

I'd love to go for Jeremy Martinez in the later rounds who's just a solid defense first guy with sooooooome bat i.e. A.J. Jimenez. With Jimenez, Nessy, Martinez, and maybe even Conner in our system, JPA should have a suitable replacement.

[Angrioter]

He's only 20, but he batted sub .200 last year

 

He just strikes out so much. He's got so much talent but he needs to cut down on the damn K's.

 

Jake/Jacob Anderson bust

[IronLadle]

A high ceiling premium position player available at #10 like....?

 

 

Depends on who slips - but I think Ball, Denney/Mcguire, Stanek, Shipley, Crawford maybe around at the 10 spot. I'd rather have DJ Petersen than Smith.

[GD]

Depends on who slips - but I think Ball, Denney/Mcguire, Stanek, Shipley, Crawford maybe around at the 10 spot. I'd rather have DJ Petersen than Smith.

 

I don't like Ball. McGuire and Denny would be nice options. The pitchers you listed would be great but I thought you wanted a position player. I like Crawford too. Not AS high on Petersen.

 

I guess this is more of a matter of a difference of opinion, I like Smith more than you do. Oh well. It's nice that we have a high pick in a draft deep enough to have these debates.

[Laika]

Why don't you like Ball? Scouts/analysts like him as a top 10 talent with plenty of projection and present stuff. He's 6-6 and athletic.

 

He just seems like such typical draft day fools gold to me.

 

Who cares how tall he is? That's a vastly overrated prospect trait. Who cares if he's a two way player? You're only drafting him to do one thing. I also DGAF that he's left handed.

 

A good looking prospect, no doubt, but it just seems like such an old school reach at #10.

 

The usual caveat though - I know nothing.

[GD]

Why don't you like Ball? Scouts/analysts like him as a top 10 talent with plenty of projection and present stuff. He's 6-6 and athletic.

 

I do like him in general but I think that he's a really risky talent with a lot of margin for error both ways. He'll really need to fill out as a hitter and I don't like his secondaries as a pitcher. I think he'll be solid but guys like Meadows and Smith are muuuuuuch better fits.

[Laika]

Is Trey Ball even a consensus pitcher? I remember reading an (older) report that said he had more promise at the plate. Something like "5 tool potential OF with an easy stroke that should add power. Shawn Green look".

[Boxcar]

Is Trey Ball even a consensus pitcher? I remember reading an (older) report that said he had more promise at the plate. Something like "5 tool potential OF with an easy stroke that should add power. Shawn Green look".

 

He could be Shawn Green or Pedro Martinez, really. Maybe both at the same time.

 

Reminds me of notorious overrated bust Casey Kelly.

[GeorgiaPeach]

I would be surprised in Toronto didn't draft a college player though. The system is in need of some good talent that can reach New Hampshire quickly.

 

I'm not a fan of an urgency push because that's where the team's at. I hate any talks of we only have a window of this timeframe. The window should be a moving window that changes slightly over time.

[GeorgiaPeach]

You're most likely right, I just like the kid and we could probably use an SS prospect that can stick there. If we sign that Gudino kid though I probably wouldn't want him as much. It's more of a need pick.

 

Did they eliminate trading in baseball?

[GD]

He could be Shawn Green or Pedro Martinez, really. Maybe both at the same time.

 

Reminds me of notorious overrated bust Casey Kelly.

 

Kaleb Cowart comes to mind.

 

Yep, that mindset is what gets you in trouble. It's how we ended up with Deck McGuire.

 

Chris Sale or Yasmani Grandal would be so nice right now.

 

Did they eliminate trading in baseball?

 

If there's a good SS prospect that only takes money, why give up a quality asset? Because it'd take a good amount to get a good SS prospect nowadays. Most of the top 10 are pretty freaking good.

[ace3113]

Jonathan Mayo says Ball's curveball is a present 5 (future 6) and a good feel for the change. I also kinda like Manaea, hopefully he falls.

 

I would love Manaea, but he's represented by Boras and the Jays seem to avoid him like the plague. I got my wish list for 10 pretty much down to one of Frazier, Meadows, Stewart, and Stanek, with and outside chance of Shipley or Ball.

[SpeedyGose]

He just seems like such typical draft day fools gold to me.

 

Who cares how tall he is? That's a vastly overrated prospect trait. Who cares if he's a two way player? You're only drafting him to do one thing. I also DGAF that he's left handed.

 

A good looking prospect, no doubt, but it just seems like such an old school reach at #10.

 

The usual caveat though - I know nothing.

 

Height factors into projection though. He is sitting 89-91 right now and up to 95 and he still has to fill out his frame, so there is definite room for growth there. Curve looks to be plus and the change has really developed this year, one of our board experts ace seems to think it is better than the curve. I've read all teams except maybe the Padres see him as a LHP rather than an OF.

 

Here's a recent video of him http://www.bbprospectreport.com/2013/05/14/trey-ball-video-2

[ace3113]

Height factors into projection though. He is sitting 89-91 right now and up to 95 and he still has to fill out his frame, so there is definite room for growth there. Curve looks to be plus and the change has really developed this year, one of our board experts ace seems to think it is better than the curve. I've read all teams except maybe the Padres see him as a LHP rather than an OF.

 

Here's a recent video of him http://www.bbprospectreport.com/2013/05/14/trey-ball-video-2

 

Thanks, Speedy but please don't call me a board "expert." I laugh at some guys who talk so expertly about prospects they've never seen based on regurgitated scouting reports. Worse when those scouting reports are outdated. All I have is an opinion, and I try my best to make sure it's informed by the best possible sources. Right now Ball projects to have at least 3 average pitches according to Law, but the scouts who want to dream on his size and huge development curve (once focusing strictly on pitching) see a guy who can have potentially 3 above average to plus pitches. We won't know who's right for at least 4 years.

[ace3113]

Here's a less optimistic view of Ball by Law, Speedy as a counter point to guys like Jim Callis and Rawnsley who love him.

 

Ball is the draft's best two-way prospect, so promising as a position player and as a pitcher that he could go in the first round as either one of the two. On the mound, his talent is easier to spot -- a 6-foot-6 left-hander with a loose arm, a fastball up to 94, and feel for a breaking ball already. His delivery has some effort in it, but he stays on top of the ball well and keeps himself online to the plate. He's inconsistent in finishing his pitches and doesn't get enough hip rotation, but there's nothing here that couldn't be fixed or improved in pro ball. As a position player, Ball has similar upside but is more crude, showing great bat speed and some raw power but lacking bat control and barring his lead arm when he loads. He's a plus runner who projects as a right fielder who, of course, would have a 60 or 70 arm. My gut feel on Ball would be to send him out as a pitcher, because he's closer to major league value on the mound with No. 2 or No. 3 starter ceiling, but I wouldn't argue with a team that wants to send him out as a hitter, figuring that it's easier to return to pitching after a layoff than it is to return to hitting. Either way he's a clear top 20 talent in this draft class.

 

Fastball 55 55 -- --

FB Movement 50 50 -- --

Command 35 50 -- --

Control -- -- -- --

Curveball 40 50 -- --

Changeup -- -- -- --

Feel for Pitching 40 50

[SpeedyGose]

Thanks, Speedy but please don't call me a board "expert." I laugh at some guys who talk so expertly about prospects they've never seen based on regurgitated scouting reports. Worse when those scouting reports are outdated. All I have is an opinion, and I try my best to make sure it's informed by the best possible sources. Right now Ball projects to have at least 3 average pitches according to Law, but the scouts who want to dream on his size and huge development curve (once focusing strictly on pitching) see a guy who can have potentially 3 above average to plus pitches. We won't know who's right for at least 4 years.

 

 

Haha. Fair enough. I didn't mean it to come off negatively. That's what I have read on Ball as well, 3 average pitches at this time with all having plus potential. Outside of Meadows and Frazier, Ball and Smith sit at the top of my list. Also, I have zero interest in a defense first catcher with a questionable bat @ #10.

[ace3113]

Yeah, the only guy I've heard connected to us that I'm weary of is McGuire. I would rather just get a guy like Jeremy Martinez or Brian Navarreto later in the draft or a college guy like Stuart Turner. Look up Turner is you have a chance, he's a pretty interesting prospect. Anyway, I just came here to post these ESPN updates.

 

It's the final weekend of the regular season, but it may be the biggest start of the year for a pair of SEC rivals, and they'll go toe-to-toe Saturday in Baton Rouge. Ole Miss right-hander Bobby Wahl (1.43 ERA, 88 IP, 55 H, 73 SO, 40 BB) looks to prove that he can be more than a reliever at the next level, while LSU righty Ryan Eades (2.29 ERA, 82 2/3 IP, 83 H, 69 SO, 23 BB) hopes to get back the crisp fastball and sharp off-speed stuff that could make him a first-round selection.

 

Both schools will hit the SEC Tournament and perhaps beyond, so it's not the final outing of the year for either pitcher, but it's another chance to shine in front of scouts.

 

"This is the stretch drive, the time when a huge showing could make the difference," said one club's national crosschecker. "When I send in final reports and I can point to at least one big game, that signature performance, it lends more confidence in that player."

 

How high Wahl and Eades can climb remains to be seen, but on draft boards, at least a few of them, there's room for both to jump.

 

"Even if Bobby closes (in pro ball), he can show me something this weekend," a regional crosschecker said. It's a big game on the road and things like this make a difference."

 

What about Eades?

 

"For me," the national checker said, "he probably is what he is, but it's always better to finish strong. He can certainly solidify his place in this draft, wherever that is."

 

There do not appear to be many questions about Eades' future role, but Wahl is still, in theory, fighting against the bullpen label.

 

"I'm not sure he can," said one assistant scouting director of Wahl's chances to avoid a future relief role, "but I'm not positive he can't, either."

 

Keith Law ranks Eades at No. 30 on his latest top 100 Draft Prospects. Wahl ranks at No. 66.

 

What to Watch

 

• Right-hander and UC Irvine ace Andrew Thurman (2.98 ERA, 84 2/3 IP, 75 H, 72 SO, 14 BB) and two-way prospect Michael Lorenzen of Cal State Fullerton square off Friday in one of the better pitcher-batter matchups of the week. Lorenzen is batting .328/.409/.527 with 20 extra-base hits on the year, but is a better prospect on the mound where he has 16 saves and sits in the mid-90s with his fastball. Neither is a first-round prospect, but the second round is within reach for both.

 

• Mississippi State right fielder Hunter Renfroe will face South Carolina for three games starting Thursday. The Gamecocks are a team with a lot of strong pitching, including a nasty relief corps and an overall team ERA below 3.00. Renfroe has as many home runs by himself, 15, as South Carolina has given up as a staff all season.

 

• Arizona's Konner Wade, a Day 2 prospect, and Arizona State ace Trevor Williams figure to go against each other Friday night in Tempe, as both pitchers have been their schools' No. 1 starter all spring. Williams has a chance to be taken off the board on day one of the draft.

 

• Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray will head to Manhattan, Kansas to face Kansas State, who have their own prospect in Jared King, an outfielder and slugger that figures to be off the board in the first five rounds. Gray, of course, could go as high as No. 1 overall, and may actually be the favorite.

 

• Left-hander Sean Manaea has big numbers -- 1.58 ERA, 88 strikeouts in 68 1/3 innings and just 44 hits allowed -- but he hasn't shown the elite stuff he flashed last summer in the Cape Cod League and has lacked consistency. He's still likely to be gone by pick No. 10 or so, but a strong finish to the season couldn't hurt.

 

• Fresno State outfielder Aaron Judge will get a look at Nevada right-hander Braden Shipley in a battle of probable first-round picks. Shipley struggled last weekend versus UNLV and his stock may be slipping a bit on some boards. The same goes for Judge to a lesser extent, so both will be looking to finish well and leave a positive impression on scouts in attendance.

 

• As is with Wahl, Florida's Jonathon Crawford may need to shake the bullpen label with better performances down the stretch, though he may have already pitched his way out of the first round. His velocity has been down a bit this season from last, and the third pitch has not been promising. He'll face Georgia on the road over the weekend.

 

• Ryne Stanek still has a chance at the top five or six picks and his final regular season start is Saturday at Auburn.

 

• Mark Appel, the top prospect in the class, has two regular season starts left, with this weekend's tilt in Berkeley versus the California Bears. The Bears' top draft prospect is catcher Andrew Knapp, the top college catcher in the draft class, who figures to be a Day 2 selection.

[Slade]

This is the first year Brian Parker will handle the draft since joining the team, right? It's possible we might see a different draft philosophy.

[GD]

This is the first year Brian Parker will handle the draft since joining the team, right? It's possible we might see a different draft philosophy.

 

That's right, but I'd assume Tinnish is still involved at least a bit.

[Laika]

Height factors into projection though.

 

So says the common assumption. I'm not saying that it's old school ******** or anything, but the degree of significance that teams place on it could very well be disproportionate to the actual effect.

 

And judging from that video, it's not exactly an "easy" 89-91 anyway. Looks like a high effort delivery.

 

6'6" is probably past the point of height being as asset too. Longer levers = more difficult to repeat mechanics and release point.

 

I'll stand by what I said

[Angrioter]

Looks like a high effort delivery

 

Agree 100%

Edited May 17, 2013 by G-Snarls

[Angrioter]

Trey Ball

 

Current - Future

Fastball: 50/55 --> 60

Curveball: 40/45--> 60

Changeup: 45/50 -->55/60

Command: 35/40-->55/60

Control: 45--->60/65

Feel: 40-->55/60

Overall Future Potential:58/61

Adjusted OFP:56/62

 

 

Very good athlete w/good body control; projectable frame; should add strength; room for growth in stuff; potential for three + offerings; command will come; + makeup.

 

Physical Description:

 

Projectable big league frame with high waist, medium broad hips, broad shoulders, and long limbs. Good control of body and solid flexibility to go with athleticism that plays. Long strides helps plus speed play up when underway.

 

Mechanics:

 

Ball utilizes a compact “phone booth” step-in and leg lift to start his delivery, then relies on long limbs and good drive to create extension and late release. His hand split, backswing, pronation, and acceleration all work pretty well with his lower half, creating solid timing and momentum, and his top shelf athleticism and body control help him to repeat his mechanics well, particularly for a prep player who splits his attention between the field and the mound, in addition to other sports. He can fail to keep a tight front side from time-to-time, in addition to coming with some tilt and corresponding fall-off to the third base side, which will lead to inconsistencies in his release and negatively affect his command and control. His three-quarters release and long arms help to create good plane on his fastball, and he does a decent job of repeating the slot with his curve and changeup. There is some effort stemming from his drive, momentum, and arm speed, which too causes some inconsistencies in his release and in his ability to command the ball, but overall he does a solid job of moving his pitches around, with his fastball and change-up command currently outdistancing his breaking ball command by a fair amount. He’s slow to the plate from the stretch, even when incorporating a slide step, so his drafting organization will need to determine whether the best solution to this issue is faster pacing or a focus on disrupting runners’ timing and jumps.

 

Stuff:

 

Fastball – Ball’s fastball has reportedly reached as high as 96 mph this spring, and has routinely sat in the low-90s (fading some only recently this spring). With a projectable frame, and plenty of room to add additional strength, durability concerns are lessened some, with solid plus velocity likely, long term. Ball produces some arm-side action, but the pitch falls short of being truly explosive. He moves it around pretty well to both sides of the plate and has little trouble elevating when needed, though he works well down in the zone, creating plane.

 

Curveball – Ball’s curve is a future plus offering that is at its best in as a 1-to-7 offering with late bite and good depth. When clicking, he’ll bring the pitch in the mid-70s, helping it to serve as a quality change-of-pace pitch without affording hitters recoup time to make adjustments. He has trouble commanding the pitch with consistency, and his control of the offering also lags behind that of his fastball and off-speed. He’ll drop his release on occasion, as well, forcing him to come around the pitch, which produces a soft, slurvy breaker that tends to stick on the hit plane. With a little more consistency in execution, it should be a worthy weapon at the next level, playing at plus—perhaps better.

 

Changeup – Ball’s arm action produces good fade on the changeup, which mirrors the arm-side run noted above on the fastball. He throws the pitch with a high level of comfort and creates arm speed and arm slot deception, giving amateur hitters little chance to defend themselves. He generally throws the pitch in the 78-82 mph range, creating a solid velo delta that should play well against pro bats. It’s a third offering with plus potential for the lefty.

 

Discussion:

 

Ball boasts a solid three-pitch foundation, a projectable frame with long limbs and the athleticism and coordination to control them, and high marks in make-up and work ethic, combining to present an enticing draft profile. The lefty has shown well this spring and seems a good bet to offer at least mid-rotation production when all is said and done. As with most high school arms, some fluctuations in velocity and inconsistency in his secondaries can leave an evaluator with concerns as to whether these issues will be magnified once the player is asked to throw more frequently and in higher effort situations. There is some solace to be found in his projectable frame, which should allow for additional strength to come as he fills in, and much solace to be taken from Ball’s athleticism and work ethic, would should allow him to incorporate pro instruction well. In addition to being a top tier pitching prospect, Ball is a worthy first round target as an outfielder, though his combination of “now” stuff, relatively clean mechanics, athleticism, and track record this spring make the mound a slightly safer proposition. His Adjusted OFP, listed above, gets a bump due to physical projection and the potential for a better-than-projected bump in stuff, and a slight knock due to typical concerns relating to durability and the potential negative impacts inherent in prep arms jumping from amateur to pro ball. The Texas commit should come off the board in the first round and fits well as a top ten pick on the bump.

 

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20615&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[G-Snarls]

Keith Law's draft prediction is up. Can someone with insider subscription please post:

 

@keithlaw: ICYMI, my projection of the first round of the 2013 draft is up for Insiders: http://t.co/T2MYCi8m9G