The Prospect/Minor Leagues Thread

[Angrioter]

I'll take Barreto, Pillar, Gose and Jimenez over Burns. That being said he's probably the Jay's best MIF prospect outside of short season A ball.

 

Nay, Dean, Lugo, Richard

[KingKat]

I'll take Barreto, Pillar, Gose and Jimenez over Burns. That being said he's probably the Jay's best MIF prospect outside of short season A ball.

I'll take Barreto, Pillar, Gose and Jimenez over Burns. That being said he's probably the Jay's best MIF prospect outside of short season A ball.

 

Burns has had the best offensive season of any season but whether he's actually the best prospect is up for debate.

 

- Jimenez is a wild card. It really depends how good his defense is. It needs to be great for him to be a good prospect but maybe it is? Defensive scouting isn't worth a damn so who really knows.

- Pillar had a good season in a sense but it's the kind of season that doesn't profile well at all for a major league OF. As many have pointed out, too much of his success is tied to batting average. Depending on his defense, he might be a good reserve.

- Gose still has the same floor, he's always had. The gap between his ceiling and his floor is shrinking but he's at worst a valuable role player. If you take the pessimistic view on Burns, Gose is the better prospect but like I said I'm jumping on the Burns bandwagon and I really don't think Gose will ever hit.

- Barreto is really young but he's not amazing. He had some pretty glowing scouting reports prior to signing and he's young enough that those still hold some weight. Given that the upside of the others isn't so high, I wouldn't argue with someone who calls him the best prospect. I kind of felt that way myself for awhile but now I'd rather reserve judgement.

 

Right now for me it goes:

 

1. Andrew Burns (the only guy I'm high on)

Big gap

2. Barreto

Big gap

3. Lopes

4. Gose (the defense is for real, the base stealing is worrisome but I'll make allowances for him being in the minors and possibly being intentionally over-aggresive as part of his development, the bat will probably never come)

5. Jimenez (I realize I've done a 180 on Jimenez but I'm just not comfortable making assumptions about the quality of his defense anymore).

 

Pillar doesn't register for me. I'd rank anyone who's had a decent short-season year ahead of him.

[DuckDuckGose]

Nay, Dean, Lugo, Richard

 

All in short season A ball though. I'd take Burns over Dickie Joe as well.

[DuckDuckGose]

Burns has had the best offensive season of any season but whether he's actually the best prospect is up for debate.

 

- Jimenez is a wild card. It really depends how good his defense is. It needs to be great for him to be a good prospect but maybe it is? Defensive scouting isn't worth a damn so who really knows.

- Pillar had a good season in a sense but it's the kind of season that doesn't profile well at all for a major league OF. As many have pointed out, too much of his success is tied to batting average. Depending on his defense, he might be a good reserve.

- Gose still has the same floor, he's always had. The gap between his ceiling and his floor is shrinking but he's at worst a valuable role player. If you take the pessimistic view on Burns, Gose is the better prospect but like I said I'm jumping on the Burns bandwagon and I really don't think Gose will ever hit.

- Barreto is really young but he's not amazing. He had some pretty glowing scouting reports prior to signing and he's young enough that those still hold some weight. Given that the upside of the others isn't so high, I wouldn't argue with someone who calls him the best prospect. I kind of felt that way myself for awhile but now I'd rather reserve judgement.

 

Right now for me it goes:

 

1. Andrew Burns (the only guy I'm high on)

Big gap

2. Barreto

Big gap

3. Lopes

4. Gose (the defense is for real, the base stealing is worrisome but I'll make allowances for him being in the minors and possibly being intentionally over-aggresive as part of his development, the bat will probably never come)

5. Jimenez (I realize I've done a 180 on Jimenez but I'm just not comfortable making assumptions about the quality of his defense anymore).

 

Pillar doesn't register for me. I'd rank anyone who's had a decent short-season year ahead of him.

 

Because of Burns' proximity to the majors, fairly high floor and some upside I can understand the case for top positional prospect. IMO best case scenario is he is an average starter which is definitely better than most players in the upper minors but I lean towards upside. I'll take the huge upside and extremely high floors of Jimenez and Gose over Burns for sure.

[KingKat]

Because of Burns' proximity to the majors, fairly high floor and some upside I can understand the case for top positional prospect. IMO best case scenario is he is an average starter which is definitely better than most players in the upper minors but I lean towards upside. I'll take the huge upside and extremely high floors of Jimenez and Gose over Burns for sure.

 

I don't really see the huge upside. Neither can hit. I'll give you the floors though (assuming that Jimenez has Gose level defense which is still a question mark for me).

[DuckDuckGose]

I don't really see the huge upside. Neither can hit. I'll give you the floors though (assuming that Jimenez has Gose level defense which is still a question mark for me).

 

Don't really need to talk about Gose, if he hits he'll be an AS, if he doesn't he'll be a 4th OF'er. 22 in AAA and he's still getting on base at a decent clip and playing plus defence in CF. K rates are back up though.

 

Jimenez has sneaky upside. I don't really trust scout's defensive evaluations either, he'll need a large MLB sample to cement himself as a defensive whiz. That being said a number of former MLB C have seen the D and rave about it, I'm going under the assumption they know what they are talking about (a big if, I know). If the defence is as good as advertised and he puts up a 100 wRC+ he'll be a 3-4 WAR player. I see him more as a 1-2 WAR notch above replacement level guy right now though.

[DuckDuckGose]

In other words he's already leagues above JPA.

 

Has a worse catcher ever gotten 300AB's in a season? JP has to be a lock for the worst C ever to get 3 seasons of +300 AB's...

[theblujay]

Hollon was promoted to Bluefield. He said so on his twitter

[Angrioter]

Hollon was promoted to Bluefield. He said so on his twitter

 

Amazing debut

[ace3113]

Hollon was promoted to Bluefield. He said so on his twitter

 

Nice.

[DuckDuckGose]

If Hollon dominates Bluefield like he did with GCL,,,, is there any chance he could start next year in Lansing?

 

IMO there is very little chance Hollon starts the year in Lansing. Going on past BJ progression patterns I think he'll start in either Bluefield or Van City possibly finishing the year in Lansing. Also Hollon is a late '94 Bday so maybe he gets promoted a little sooner as he is older than most of the recent draft class.

[ace3113]

It's amazing how differently you guys view Hollon now.

 

Not really for me personally. Here's what I said immediately after the Hollon pick.

 

Wow. I can live with that.

 

Followed by.

 

Last summer Hollon was considered the top high school pitcher in the 2013 class. Obviously he's fallen a bit, but the stuff is pretty much the same as it was then.

[GD]

I think I was worried about his health. That's still a concern for me but he's healthy atm so I like him lol.

[imsorry4beatinU]

It's amazing how differently you guys view Hollon now.

 

That's how Ontario sport team's fans are..

[digiblader]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/eye-on-baseball/23152041/minor-league-team-loses-thanks-to-walkoff-intentional-walk

 

Can you believe this? And to think, Alan Farina was a top prospect for the Jays at one time..

[Abomination]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/eye-on-baseball/23152041/minor-league-team-loses-thanks-to-walkoff-intentional-walk

 

Can you believe this? And to think, Alan Farina was a top prospect for the Jays at one time..

 

Misleading, but hilarious.

[ace3113]

Promising lefty prospect Zak Wasiewski aka Scrabble 3.0 with a nice start today: 5ip 6h 0r 0bb 4so

 

On the year he's 4-1 with a 2.68era. Has to cut down on the walks though (23), so today's line is a nice change.

 

In other news, Sanchez pitching in Dunedin: 5ip 4h 0r 1bb 6so (game in progress).

[John_Havok]

Andy Burns having a nice run at AA after a slow star after his promotion.

 

Hitting .300/.349/.600 over his last 10 with 6 star base hits including 2 HR

[theblujay]

Andy Burns having a nice run at AA after a slow star after his promotion.

 

Hitting .300/.349/.600 over his last 10 with 6 star base hits including 2 HR

 

You're one page behind.

[theblujay]

Promising lefty prospect Zak Wasiewski aka Scrabble 3.0 with a nice start today: 5ip 6h 0r 0bb 4so

 

On the year he's 4-1 with a 2.68era. Has to cut down on the walks though (23), so today's line is a nice change.

 

In other news, Sanchez pitching in Dunedin: 5ip 4h 0r 1bb 6so (game in progress).

 

Sanchez is done with that line. 9 groundouts 0 flyouts as well

[theblujay]

Tirado: 5IP 1H 0ER 2BB 6K

[KingKat]

Has a worse catcher ever gotten 300AB's in a season? JP has to be a lock for the worst C ever to get 3 seasons of +300 AB's...

 

Oh if you go back through history into pre-sabermetric days, you will find plenty of spectacuarly s***** catchers who got even more ABs because they had a reputation for calling a good game or some other folksy justification. Believe me if this message board existed in the 80's, we'd all be JP is great because HR + RBI. Evaluating players is a lot easier these days. Just look at this year's WAR/Win graph.

 

http://blogimages.thescore.com/mlb/files/2013/08/fwar-to-wins-2013.png

 

This is seriously amazing stuff. fWAR isn't perfect but the relationship to actual wins is remarkably strong and with tweaking it can only get better. With fWAR, the casual fan can readily access a single number that gives a better idea of value then anything the smartest pre-Billy Beane GM could access. This is why in today's baseball, we expect a guy like JPA to get weeded out but in another era he probably sticks around for twenty years.

[theblujay]

Oh if you go back through history into pre-sabermetric days, you will find plenty of spectacuarly s***** catchers who got even more ABs because they had a reputation for calling a good game or some other folksy justification. Believe me if this message board existed in the 80's, we'd all be JP is great because HR + RBI. Evaluating players is a lot easier these days. Just look at this year's WAR/Win graph.

 

http://blogimages.thescore.com/mlb/files/2013/08/fwar-to-wins-2013.png

 

This is seriously amazing stuff. fWAR isn't perfect but the relationship to actual wins is remarkably strong and with tweaking it can only get better. With fWAR, the casual fan can readily access a single number that gives a better idea of value then anything the smartest pre-Billy Beane GM could access. This is why in today's baseball, we expect a guy like JPA to get weeded out but in another era he probably sticks around for twenty years.

 

Based on that graph could you say something about the teams, like the ones a good bit above/below the line were lucky/unlucky or they have the team chemistry or clutch hitting that results in wins? Or is it just problems with the fWAR stat itself.

 

Because just looking at the teams above the line (A's, Braves, Pirates, Cardinals) you could say they have been the teams that seem to find ways to win.

[KingKat]

Based on that graph could you say something about the teams, like the ones a good bit above/below the line were lucky/unlucky or they have the team chemistry or clutch hitting that results in wins? Or is it just problems with the fWAR stat itself.

 

Because just looking at the teams above the line (A's, Braves, Pirates, Cardinals) you could say they have been the teams that seem to find ways to win.

 

You'd really have to dig into the numbers to see what's happening. There are any number of factors. Assuming that there aren't problems with fWAR would be naive but sometimes that may not be as big a factor as simple timing. Every year there are teams that get better or worse results than their run differential would suggest. Whether that's being "clutch" or "unclutch" or simply good or bad fortune is up for interpretation. Generally, because clutchiness doesn't seem to be repeatable skill, it's assumed to be largely the product of good fortune but that's not set in stone or anything.

 

Do the Cards and A's have a superior way of evaluating value that allows them to consistently outperform their fWAR? You'd have to see a year to year trend to support that belief but those are two of the smartest orgs in baseball so I wouldn't put it past them.

Edited August 15, 2013 by KingKat

[GD]

Do the Cards and A's have a superior way of evaluating value that allows them to consistently outperform their fWAR?

 

I know the A's certainly don't use fWAR, as they've spoken on their own WAR metric that valued Miguel Cabrera more than Mike Trout last year.

[GD]

Going to the Bisons game today. Have no clue who's starting lol. Will report back.

[theblujay]

fWAR uses FIP, not actual results of runs, HR/FB% and BABIP are probably the main reasons that some teams are farther off the line. FIP is better at predicting future ERA's than estimating current ERA. The offensive WAR is more accurate to results.

 

So that's why JJs WAR is high when he's been terrible. His FIP

[theblujay]

Robson had another good start in Vancouver: 5IP 2H 1ER 2BB 4K, 8-2 GO-FO, (ERA: 0.79)

 

Labourt, Jenkins and Norris pitch today.

[GD]

Bisons game done. Impressions:

 

-Goins is really solid defensively

-Gose looks a bit better at the plate

-Get rid of f***ing Sierra already

-Brad Glenn hit super well, a HR and some hard hit drives. Threw me a ball too

-Marty Brown is insane

-Michael Tonkin is pretty nice for Rochester

[DuckDuckGose]

fWAR uses FIP, not actual results of runs, HR/FB% and BABIP are probably the main reasons that some teams are farther off the line. FIP is better at predicting future ERA's than estimating current ERA. The offensive WAR is more accurate to results.

 

I'd imagine quality of competition would be a big part of it as well. I'm not sure if this has been tested but you would think run differential per win would be different in the AL East vs AL Central.