A Very Darrelly Dynasty League

[z3r0s]

He was great through April and May, then the wheels fell off and have stayed off. One of many True Cardinals that have been bitterly disappointing this season.

 

may as well trade him to me.

[BTS]

may as well trade him to me.

 

No!

 

Actually, I'm pretty sure we've never made a trade.

[KingKat]

 

I knew what that would be and I was pleased.

[The Cats Ass]

Dibs on Bautista.

 

f*** You... Already spoken for.

[z3r0s]

No!

 

Actually, I'm pretty sure we've never made a trade.

 

That is very likely true. Xander would be a good starting point

[Fearthedoc]

f*** You... Already spoken for.

 

I'll probably have to jump into the Cliff Lee sweepstakes soon with the way my pitchers are dropping like flies.

[Boxcar]

Yup. Followed by some smarmy comment along the lines of "that's what the projections say. I'm not sure why you'd ignore them". That guy was an endless provider of cringe and douche chills.

 

I remember when he was freaking out when the league handed his "biggest competition" the title after Stanton slid in the draft. It was bad but it is hilarious that his team has been beyond mediocre after acting like he was the clear cut favorite to win it all.

[The Cats Ass]

I'll probably have to jump into the Cliff Lee sweepstakes soon with the way my pitchers are dropping like flies.

 

You can have Lee if I can have Bautista?

[Fearthedoc]

You can have Lee if I can have Bautista?

 

Okay deal.

 

I get Lee, you get Bautista, BTS gets Martinez. Now how are we splitting up Fraizer, Verlander, and Hudson?

[Dr. Dinger]

The bottom is going to fall out on Locke any day now.

[Dr. Dinger]

I'm in on Bautista and I have a chip that I know Spanky wants.

[BTS]

So as far as I can tell, when Spanky decides to take offers on Bautista he'll be the only top-100 bat on the trade market. Seller's market.

[Dr. Dinger]

Shin-Soo Choo and Allen Craig are also on the market.

[BTS]

Shin-Soo Choo and Allen Craig are also on the market.

 

I'm curious to see what you get back for Craig, because it will likely closely resemble what I would get back for Butler if I shopped him.

[Dr. Dinger]

Haven't had a lot of interest in him so far, it seems nobody in this league likes a buy-low opportunity. There are rumours he could end up in Boston as part of a Jake Peavy trade.

[NorthOf49]

Haven't had a lot of interest in him so far, it seems nobody in this league likes a buy-low opportunity. There are rumours he could end up in Boston as part of a Jake Peavy trade.

The rumours are based off pure speculation from Ken Rosenthal. There's no actual evidence that it's going to happen.

 

I didn't realize Craig was having quite so bad a year. When BTS mentioned Butler I thought it was a stretch, but it doesn't appear to be. They're very similar players in age, profile and batted ball distribution. I like buying low but I just don't see it with Craig.

[BTS]

Haven't had a lot of interest in him so far, it seems nobody in this league likes a buy-low opportunity. There are rumours he could end up in Boston as part of a Jake Peavy trade.

 

Not surprised. I'm fully intending to go into next season with Butler on my bench, because I know if I shop him now I won't get much of anything.

[jaysblue]

The rumours are based off pure speculation from Ken Rosenthal. There's no actual evidence that it's going to happen.

 

I didn't realize Craig was having quite so bad a year. When BTS mentioned Butler I thought it was a stretch, but it doesn't appear to be. They're very similar players in age, profile and batted ball distribution. I like buying low but I just don't see it with Craig.

 

Was Craig ever really that good though? I mean he put together solid years in 2012 and 2013, though I felt he was always overrated. Doesn't walk that much - his .OBP driven by his high averages those seasons and he was never a profound power hitter. He had some sexy RBI totals, though other than that I just was never that high on him as some others made out to be.

 

He's still a solid player though and I think a change of scenery is what he needs.

[jaysblue]

Not surprised. I'm fully intending to go into next season with Butler on my bench, because I know if I shop him now I won't get much of anything.

 

Luckily he's eligible at 1B as well in Yahoo. I have Butler in my ESPN salary league and he only has UTL eligibility ugh. Alongside he's $10.25 million against my cap this season and next.

[jaysblue]

So as far as I can tell, when Spanky decides to take offers on Bautista he'll be the only top-100 bat on the trade market. Seller's market.

 

If he shops Bautista, you would think V-Mart is on the market as well. Ugh I still regret trading V-Mart to Spanky. I'm shocked V-Mart alone hasn't carried Spanky to first place. The guy has been a beast since I traded him.

[BTS]

Was Craig ever really that good though? I mean he put together solid years in 2012 and 2013, though I felt he was always overrated. Doesn't walk that much - his .OBP driven by his high averages those seasons and he was never a profound power hitter. He had some sexy RBI totals, though other than that I just was never that high on him as some others made out to be.

 

He's still a solid player though and I think a change of scenery is what he needs.

 

140 wRC+ over 1300 PA from 2011-2013. He really was that good.

[NorthOf49]

Craig wasn't overrated prior to last year because before then he actually did him for decent power. He was a versatile good average, good power hitter in a very good lineup.

 

Then last year his HR/FB went way down, and this year it's still down and his FB% has also cratered. He's going to have to do something different to get the power back, this isn't a traditional bad luck buy-low situation.

[jaysblue]

140 wRC+ over 1300 PA from 2011-2013. He really was that good.

 

Jumped the gun too quickly before I made that comment. He was definitely a top 25 bat over 2012 and 2013 after looking into his stats more in detail.

[BTS]

Luckily he's eligible at 1B as well in Yahoo. I have Butler in my ESPN salary league and he only has UTL eligibility ugh. Alongside he's $10.25 million against my cap this season and next.

 

Eww.

[Fearthedoc]

it seems nobody in this league likes a buy-low opportunity.

 

The problem with the terms "buy-low" and "sell-high" is that they aren't really accurate. In a situation like this, you wouldn't be moving Craig for "low", but for fair value given the circumstances. The discount you are giving (relative to Craig's career production) is offset by the risk factor being transferred to the new owner. The risk factor that these struggles could be an ongoing problem, leading to serious declines in year-to-year production.

 

I'm not singling Craig out individually. I haven't even looked much into his struggles; I'm just addressing these types of deals as a whole. Ultimately, I stay away from these kinds of deals because I see them as nothing more than a 50-50 gamble. You both know all the same information; either he returns to pre-2014 Craig and Team A wins, or he never recaptures his career numbers and Team B wins.

 

Pretty much the only two reasons I'll make trades are: 1) To adjust for positional needs/positional depth (team management I guess) and 2) If I see a blatant gap in value in how another manager and I value an asset.

 

To conclude this mammoth post, the only time I get on board with buy-low/sell-high trades is when the owner flies to close to either extreme (i.e. buying/selling at a price too close to their actual 2014 line).

[NorthOf49]

Good post FTD. I tend to do subtle buy-low/sell-high trades.

 

If I have a player who in my opinion is over-performing enough for other teams to consider him to be in a new class of players but not enough for him to be having a clear "breakout," then I'll sometimes make him available and make it seem like I'm selling for roster reasons and not because he's a "sell-high" candidate. Or if another team has a somewhat expendable (for roster or timeline reasons) player who is under-performing but not enough for the other owner to worry he's "selling low" then I'll inquire and make a legitimate offer, ensuring that it doesn't seem like I'm "buying low."

 

In general I don't really believe in the extreme low/high structure because any player can go in any direction. Instead of selling low on a player, you may be smartly salvaging whatever value you can get. Or instead of buying high, you could be smartly betting on an even more extreme breakout. I.e., Silvergun's sale of Josh Donaldson last year to therealmin. He probably thought it was clever to cash in on a scrub like Donaldson. But instead, Donaldson rose even higher and is now a premium piece.

[BTS]

My god I want Josh Donaldson on my team.

[GD]

I traded Dallas Keuchel for him in another league.

 

Straight up.

 

4 weeks after I got him off of waivers.

[BTS]

I traded Dallas Keuchel for him in another league.

 

Straight up.

 

4 weeks after I got him off of waivers.

 

Why even play in that league?

[Fearthedoc]

Instead of selling low on a player, you may be smartly salvaging whatever value you can get.

 

Exactly. One could even consider these situations "sell highs" because you're moving them before they're potentially worthless. We'll see this happen A LOT with prospects in the upcoming years of our dynasty league. Actually, we just did see it. You could say that I just bought low on Gyorko. However, he could easily suck next year, become worthless, and end up being a great sell by BTS.