A Very Darrelly Dynasty League

[Dr. Dinger]

Duct tape that elbow, Pestano.

[Dr. Dinger]

who wants to play the "how far does Burch Smith slide down the waiver priority" game?

 

It's hard to imagine him making a 20 man roster in February. However I say he gets claimed in the mid-teens.

[TheHurl]

I just wish Yahoo would react to discussions of people being called up rather than additions to the roster. Smith was announced on Monday and I refreshed at 3:00 am each day as they added new players. I'm not giving up the number 2 priority for him though. Although I don't even know the rules on Waiver priority, does it even effect next year's waiver draft?

[Dr. Dinger]

I just wish Yahoo would react to discussions of people being called up rather than additions to the roster. Smith was announced on Monday and I refreshed at 3:00 am each day as they added new players. I'm not giving up the number 2 priority for him though. Although I don't even know the rules on Waiver priority, does it even effect next year's waiver draft?

 

No. Use it or lose it. Also, read the rules, I spent a lot of time writing them.

[Dr. Dinger]

Trade completed!!

 

NorthOf49 receives: Doubront + #78 + #82 + #117.

Dr. Dinger receives: Pestano + #110 + #111

 

BTS, I'm curious as to why you dislike this trade? It seems pretty innocuous to me.

[TheHurl]

No. Use it or lose it. Also, read the rules, I spent a lot of time writing them.

 

can I get an audio version?

[z3r0s]

Nice add by z3r0s on Derek Dietrich. They talked about him on the BA podcast, I missed out on him by a half hour.

 

I was going to waiver him but cancelled it and grabbed him this morning. Worked out for me.

[Dr. Dinger]

There are a bunch of previously-unowned prospects that have come up and done well, grabbing them is a market inefficiency.

 

No harm in using a waiver claim IMO, there won't be much if any elite talent hitter waivers.

[Laika]

BTS, I'm curious as to why you dislike this trade? It seems pretty innocuous to me.

 

I'm just not sure why you felt the need to give up Doubront+ for Pestano? Doubront misses bats as a starter, he had a sub 4 xFIP last year and his DIPS are all below 3.50 so far this year.

 

2012 Pestano had more or less the same peripherals as 2012 Doubront, except as a non closing RP. And he's hurt right now.

 

If anything, Doubront > Pestano IMO.

 

Being said, it's only late picks being thrown around so you can't really lose hard. Maybe you just don't like FD.

[Laika]

There are a bunch of previously-unowned prospects that have come up and done well, grabbing them is a market inefficiency.

 

It definitely is until we fully fill out our minor league systems. I got Tony Cingrani for a middle of the pack waiver priority (I think). That seems like a case in point to me.

[Dr. Dinger]

I'm just not sure why you felt the need to give up Doubront+ for Pestano? Doubront misses bats as a starter, he had a sub 4 xFIP last year and his DIPS are all below 3.50 so far this year.

 

2012 Pestano had more or less the same peripherals as 2012 Doubront, except as a non closing RP. And he's hurt right now.

 

If anything, Doubront > Pestano IMO.

 

Being said, it's only late picks being thrown around so you can't really lose hard. Maybe you just don't like FD.

 

I actually like Doubront alright, even though he's on the verge of losing his rotation spot. He strikes guys out, but he's a bit of a liability otherwise. I've owned him since last year in FC and he's a pretty consistent gascan... hell, NorthOf49 almost immediately dropped him (see waivers). I was facing a roster crunch to take on Uehara, and I needed to cut one of Doubront, Tepesch, or Rajai Davis. I decided to see what I could get for one of them, and I also needed Holds help. Pestano was a pretty good fit as I could stash him on my DL immediately. Really, FIP is pretty irrelevant here unless you suddenly think Doubront is going to start pitching to a sub-4 ERA, which I don't. Pestano is a much more fantasy relevant player in holds leagues, unless his elbow essplodes, which is a distinct possibility and, I assume, the primary reason why NorthOf49 was eager to part with him. If he returns to health, he and Uehara will add a lot to my bullpen, whereas Doubront was strictly a Ks guy who got bumped from his start this week for Allen Webster.

 

I agree about the draft picks and relative value, but I think it's pretty clear at this point that I don't give a s*** about the upcoming draft.

[Dr. Dinger]

Also, we're discussing players that will almost certainly be in the Waiver Draft next year. Hardly anything to get up in arms about.

[Dr. Dinger]

It definitely is until we fully fill out our minor league systems. I got Tony Cingrani for a middle of the pack waiver priority (I think). That seems like a case in point to me.

 

Tony Cingrani will be the waiver add of the year, although I think Evan Gattis has been a nice surprise too and will soon be C/1B/OF eligible.

[Dr. Dinger]

Can't disagree with that assessment. I'm the opposite, I've done very little draft research and I don't want to bother doing much this year. I'm in too many leagues and busy with a new role at work. Also, my other deep dynasty is a total rebuild, so I'm more interested in being an immediate competitor here.

[Laika]

A) Doubront isn't really anything, he walks way too many guys to be effective. Nothing to get excited for in the future, and I have no use for him presently.

 

Pestano was second in baseball in holds last year

 

A) 3.87 xFIP in 228.2 career innings = effective. It's irrelevant how many guys he walks. That's not enough innings to throw DIPS out the window and look at his ERA. I would've dropped Porcello before him if I were you.

 

So what? The predictive value of last year's Holds total is basically nil. Mitchell Boggs was 3rd in baseball and now he's dead. KRod was fifth and he's terrible. Holds are fleeting no matter how many a guy had last year, and they are a totally waiver-wire acquirable commodity.

 

You got tangibly more value in this trade, but as has already been said, it's pretty irrelevant.

[Dr. Dinger]

Who would you pick up off the wire right now for holds? It's much thinner than you're supposing.

[Laika]

Who would you pick up off the wire right now for holds? It's much thinner than you're supposing.

 

I dunno. Joba? DO?

 

It's not so much that they're always sitting there in the FA pool, it's just that new opportunities pop up fairly frequently as guys get hurt, demoted, whatever.

[Dr. Dinger]

I would've dropped Porcello before him if I were you.

 

I'd agree with you there, Porcello is shite. However, I think you need to separate what you know about the usefulness of ERA in real life from it's fantasy function. Doubront is a ratio torcher, plain and simple. I think a 4.50 ERA ROS is about the best you could hope for, and right now it seems far more likely that he'll lose his rotation spot altogether.

[Dr. Dinger]

I dunno. Joba? DO?

 

It's not so much that they're always sitting there in the FA pool, it's just that new opportunities pop up fairly frequently as guys get hurt, demoted, whatever.

 

I wouldn't touch Joba with a 10 foot pole, he's not even 3rd on their bullpen depth chart and his K/BB is a mess. Holds guys become available no more frequently than serviceable 5th/6th starters become available. IMO there aren't any holds guys nearly as good as Pestano available as FAs. Meanwhile, there is always a Porcello/Doubront/Tepesch/Westbrook/Lackey/Kazmir floating around.

[Laika]

I'd agree with you there, Porcello is shite. However, I think you need to separate what you know about the usefulness of ERA in real life from it's fantasy function. Doubront is a ratio torcher, plain and simple. I think a 4.50 ERA ROS is about the best you could hope for, and right now it seems far more likely that he'll lose his rotation spot altogether.

 

I like how 200 innings is enough to prove that someone is a DIPS buster.

 

The "losing his rotation spot" argument might be legitimate. I'm not really following lots of these stories this year with the same type of fantasy slanted hawk eye that I have in the past. I have no idea what they're doing in Boston. I don't think I own a single Boston pitcher in any of my leagues.

[Boxcar]

Wow, a lot of discussion about a pretty insignificant trade.

 

Anyway, I'm looking to move Dempster for someone younger and nearly as good. I'm willing to throw in a 2nd rounder.

[Dr. Dinger]

I care less and less about DIPS. FIP doesn't take into account LOB% or H/9, and it pretty much loves any high K pitcher with an average HR rate. Some pitchers consistently outpitch their FIP (Cain, Vogelsong), and some consistently underdeliver it (Morrow, Doubront), and the difference often comes down to how well they pitch with runners on. Doubront gets knocked around a lot and has a poor walk rate. You can bank on his FIP if you want, but where fantasy is concerned, I care more about results. I consider that career 5+ ERA and s***** WHIP (or OBPA) over 200+ IP much more informative than his FIP.

[Laika]

Ricky Nolasco was a free agent until yesterday (speedygose grabbed him) and has a career 3.79 xFIP.

 

I made a mental note to put a waiver claim in on him, but then I was too busy and forgot

 

I believe Doubront's good xFIP is a product of his LD% being abnormally high (23.4% last year, 26.7% this). If you normalize that, his fly-ball rate goes up and the xFIP doesn't look special any more.

 

Um. Wat.

That seems kind of dumb. Not even sure how to approach a rebuttal... there are several weird limbs sticking out of that reasoning.

[Dr. Dinger]

Good holds guys are only really available at the very start of the season before the manager's BP tendencies are known.

 

I actually strongly agree with this. You can tell pretty early who the consistent holds guys are going to be, and they get snapped up and held onto. There are no 2012 Grillis still floating on the waiver wire.

[Boxcar]

Um. Wat.

That seems kind of dumb. Not even sure how to approach a rebuttal... there are several weird limbs sticking out of that reasoning.

 

I like how he assumes every liner would turn into a fly ball.

[Dr. Dinger]

I don't actually hate this trade. My comment was regarding the ridiculous amount of picks being moved in otherwise small small deals. I do like Doubront, but Cherington's idiocy will probably cost him a rotation spot. He clearly looks more at ERA than DIPS, and is going to destroy a serviceable starter's fantasy value by moving him to the pen unless his luck changes over the next start or two.

 

Those picks are meaningless. Next year, many of those picks won't even be used.

[Dr. Dinger]

This seems ill-advised.

 

I'm not saying I don't like FIP or use it, I just won't cling to it when a fringe starter is repeatedly lighting up my fantasy line. There's virtually no chance that Doubront is a keeper for any team in this league.

[Laika]

I care less and less about DIPS. FIP doesn't take into account LOB% or H/9, and it pretty much loves any high K pitcher with an average HR rate. Some pitchers consistently outpitch their FIP (Cain, Vogelsong), and some consistently underdeliver it (Morrow, Doubront), and the difference often comes down to how well they pitch with runners on. Doubront gets knocked around a lot and has a poor walk rate. You can bank on his FIP if you want, but where fantasy is concerned, I care more about results. I consider that career 5+ ERA and s***** WHIP (or OBPA) over 200+ IP much more informative than his FIP.

 

lol. ERA ftw.

[Dr. Dinger]

I also have a theory that guys with high walk rates are overrated by FIP. If you walk more guys, your K/9 will go up because you'll have more chances. I've moved to using % stats (K% or BB%) instead of /9 stats because they're more accurate.

 

More walks lead to more strikeouts per nine, but more strikeouts do NOT lead to more walks per nine. FIP doesn't take that into account and is flawed.

 

I have a theory that I was right about Rick Porcello and NJH & BTS were wrong, and therefore my logic is infallible.

[Dr. Dinger]

lol. ERA ftw.

 

ERA is a category in this league. A liability to 3 categories isn't worth a boost in one. By all means, put a claim on him. I actually might. I do think he's a serviceable 5/6, but I also think he's cuttable if necessary.