NHL Thread

[Laika]

Maybe not the Vezina either

[P2F]

Odds are stacked against him in the Norris, but he just might find a way to come through in the clutch!

[Cyborg]

Also, the second goals by both teams were hilariously bad goaltending fails.

[P2F]

Also, the second goals by both teams were hilariously bad goaltending fails.

Dat Hamilton goal...

[Laika]

Dem backups

[Cyborg]

Dem backups

Johnson isn't really a backup, or backup quality at least. He is just behind a top 5ish goalie.

[Laika]

Johnson isn't really a backup, or backup quality at least. He is just behind a top 5ish goalie.

 

lmao holy f*** ok, biased much

[Laika]

horrible D by Calgary, wow

[Cyborg]

lmao holy f*** ok, biased much

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=1&gameType=2&report=goaliebystrength&pos=G&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20112012&seasonTo=20162017&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,80&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,&sort=evSavePctg

[Laika]

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=1&gameType=2&report=goaliebystrength&pos=G&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20112012&seasonTo=20162017&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,80&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,&sort=evSavePctg

 

Not sure if serious

[Cyborg]

Not sure if serious

Well large sample EV SV% is the best public metric for goalies... so yes.

[Laika]

Well large sample EV SV% is the best public metric for goalies... so yes.

 

He played on a lockdown defensive team in STL, he switched teams within your sample, he's like 40th this year in SV% or something... SV% is like 2/3 team, 1/3 goalie.

 

Guaranteed, gun to your head, there are like 15 goalies you would take over Elliot right now.

[King]

Well large sample EV SV% is the best public metric for goalies... so yes.

Do you know what kind of metrics they use to evaluate goalies internally?

[Cyborg]

He played on a lockdown defensive team in STL, he switched teams within your sample, he's like 40th this year in SV% or something... SV% is like 2/3 team, 1/3 goalie.

 

Guaranteed, gun to your head, there are like 15 goalies you would take over Elliot right now.

More like 3/4 luck, 3/16 team, 1/16 goalie, but yes your point stands. Can't take anything from just this year with any meaning though.

He's also only 22nd out of 43 goalies in EV SV% this year when I set the limit to 25 games. Overall SV% is skewed by Calgary penalties.

[Cyborg]

Tier 1

Price

 

Tier 2

Holtby

Lundqvist

Rask

 

Tier 3

Crawford

Elliot

Murray

Dubnyk

Schneider

Talbot

Bobrovsky

Anderson

Mason

Bishop

Quick

Gibson

Andersen

 

Tier 4

Miller

Lehner

Greiss

Johnson

Rinne

Smith

Varlamov

Allen

Fleury

etc.

[Jonn]

That Boston line is filth. Have all 3 on my fantasy hockey team. Fun to watch. Marchand is playing on another level.

[Laika]

Close enough, but some guys like Bobrovsky, Anderson, and Dubnyk probably belong either in tier 2 or in tier 2.5

[P2F]

Close enough, but some guys like Bobrovsky, Anderson, and Dubnyk probably belong either in tier 2 or in tier 2.5

I'd throw Murray in that tier as well. #notbiased

[Cyborg]

I'd throw Murray in that tier as well. #notbiased

Just not enough sample yet to do that. Though he seems to be heading that way.

[z3r0s]

The real question is if only 1/16 of the value is a result of the player, why bother using tiers at all.

 

On another note, I don't believe that at all.

[P2F]

Just not enough sample yet to do that. Though he seems to be heading that way.

Yup, totally understandable - only 54 regular season games under his belt thus far. He seems legit, though we'll see soon enough.

 

By the way, I'm totally not a Penguins fan!

[Cyborg]

The real question is if only 1/16 of the value is a result of the player, why bother using tiers at all.

 

On another note, I don't believe that at all.

When you try to project goalies SV% and properly regress to the mean, the SV% spread from top to bottom is only around .005. There really isn't a good way to evaluate goalies yet unless you have much better data than just shots and goals.

[Laika]

The real question is if only 1/16 of the value is a result of the player, why bother using tiers at all.

 

On another note, I don't believe that at all.

 

It's more like 1/6 of the measurable skill is the result of the player. That's slightly different. There are still obviously better goalies, and value is distributed like skill at a position in any sport - it's just really hard to tell through all the noise who is good and who is average.

[King]

Yup, totally understandable - only 54 regular season games under his belt thus far. He seems legit, though we'll see soon enough.

3000 shots on goal is the stabilization point by my understanding and he's at ~1200

[Cyborg]

On another note I was going to s*** on Tkachuk for taking too many penalties but... http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=0&gameType=2&report=skaterscoring&pos=S&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20162017&seasonTo=20162017&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,30&sort=penaltiesDrawnPer60Minutes

[P2F]

On another note I was going to s*** on Tkachuk for taking too many penalties but... http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=0&gameType=2&report=skaterscoring&pos=S&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20162017&seasonTo=20162017&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,30&sort=penaltiesDrawnPer60Minutes

 

Wow!

[P2F]

3000 shots on goal is the stabilization point by my understanding and he's at ~1200

1500. But yes, the point stands. He's at 2100 if you include last season's playoffs, but I guess we can't really do that. And the point still stands regardless.

[King]

1500. But yes, the point stands. He's at 2100 if you include last season's playoffs, but I guess we can't really do that. And the point still stands regardless.

1200 even strength

[P2F]

1200 even strength

Ah.

[Cyborg]

Gaudreau's penalty differential is crazy.