NHL Thread

[havok24]

11 regulation wins in 38 games = Great team!!!

[theblujay]

Fire Carlyle

[mitchf]

Lol at Bozak comments. Bozak should be considered a fringe AHL player.

Bozak is a 3rd line center just like Matt Stajan is. There is a role for players like him.

[theblujay]

Please just win

[havok24]

Jonathan Bernier vs The New York Rangers.

 

Scoreless after two periods of play.

[GD]

31-15 lol

[GD]

Management has been making ALL the right moves.

 

See: my sig.

 

Lol Leafs.

[GD]

???

 

Getting badly outshot and somehow magically tying it up in the final minute-ish. I'm happy and all but that's just so Leafs.

 

McDonagh (sp?) having a great shift.

[GD]

11 regulation wins in 39 games lol.

 

Go proofread my column you knobjockey!

[GD]

Are you implying me, what column?

 

Nah just asking BTS to proofread my Breaking Blue post cause I'm too dumn to be grammatically correct half the time.

 

Anyone else watching 24/7? Still nothing too funny yet.

[Abomination]

Sorry...... JFaS, matinee in Calgary? Nice W in the SO good s***.

 

Against my fantasy goalie

[GD]

I love Jake Gardiner.

[havok24]

I would sort by PAA (RAA or RAR baseball equivalent) for value. Points would be equivalent to runs created.

 

Nice work bud, much appreciated.

[Frag]

Well done Chris! Btw, did you use BtN's data or Hockey Analysis? I ask this because the latter provides teammate Corsi for% when the player of interest is not on the ice, while BtN's QOT includes the player of interest's effect on his teammates.

 

In fact, could you PM me the methods you did to calculate PAA? Thanks!

[Frag]

Love this gif of the Carlyle Squad:

 

http://i.imgur.com/y1Q9eKn.gif

[Frag]

BtN, I'll send you a PM when I have some time!

 

Okay thanks!

[Frag]

So, this stat called THoR has been updated and converted into WAR. Seems to be pretty good predictor of future THoR, too.

 

Seeing the top names, while talented, doesn't entirely pass the sniff test. Kunitz over Crosby?

[Nox]

So, this stat called THoR has been updated and converted into WAR. Seems to be pretty good predictor of future THoR, too.

 

Seeing the top names, while talented, doesn't entirely pass the sniff test. Kunitz over Crosby?

 

I just skimmed it. A couple of comments/questions:

 

A) Does he talk anywhere about how he determined replacement level? That's not a trivial problem.

 

I'm not sure why he's so concerned with the predictive power of an economic framework. That's not really what WAR is intended for.

[TheHurl]

I just skimmed it. A couple of comments/questions:

 

A) Does he talk anywhere about how he determined replacement level? That's not a trivial problem.

 

I'm not sure why he's so concerned with the predictive power of an economic framework. That's not really what WAR is intended for.

 

Don't think he does. Here is the original paper http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_Curro_MIT_Sloan_THoR.pdf

 

Edit, found this "relative to an average player"

[Frag]

Don't think he does. Here is the original paper http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_Curro_MIT_Sloan_THoR.pdf

 

Edit, found this "relative to an average player"

 

He tweeted today that it actually is Wins Above Replacement:

 

[Frag]

I just skimmed it. A couple of comments/questions:

 

A) Does he talk anywhere about how he determined replacement level? That's not a trivial problem.

 

I'm not sure why he's so concerned with the predictive power of an economic framework. That's not really what WAR is intended for.

 

A) I haven't seen him post anywhere his methods. My guess would be that he looked into the average 4th line forward (+13th forward) or 3rd pairing D (+7th D), both of which determined using TOI/GP, and used that as a proxy. However, I don't want to assume anything here.

 

That does puzzle me (though, if it's both a good evaluator of past performance and a good predictor of future performance, then THoR may be a really promising stat IMO). I would prefer to see an analysis of his tool in comparison to past performance (especially on team level).

[Frag]

Why do we want wins for hockey? Because of the extra point games, it's not just straight up wins and losses. I think it would make the most sense to be in Points (League points).

 

Not that it matters, but it would be nice if they used "Threshold" player instead of "Replacement" player in addition to using "Points" as opposed to "Wins". So as to call it "PAT" instead of "WAR", but I digress.

[Frag]

Looks like Phaneuf's extension is pretty much done. 7 years, $7 M AAV.

[GD]

The Leafs might be making Kadri available in trade talks.

 

Oi

[havok24]

The Leafs might be making Kadri available in trade talks.

 

Oi

 

Are you serious? Given Dave Nonis' fine history as a GM in this league, we can expect team X to rape and pillage him in any deal for Kadri. Oh and if the Leafs have any more second round picks, you can add that in the deal as well. Maybe toss a facepuncher the Leafs way, because we all know to win hockey games, you got to win meaningless staged fights.

[GD]

Are you serious? Given Dave Nonis' fine history as a GM in this league, we can expect team X to rape and pillage him in any deal for Kadri. Oh and if the Leafs have any more second round picks, you can add that in the deal as well. Maybe toss a facepuncher the Leafs way, because we all know to win hockey games, you got to win meaningless staged fights.

 

Dave Nonis is giving away quality centers at a remarkable clip

[havok24]

Dave Nonis is giving away quality centers at a remarkable clip

 

Tyler Bozak >>>>>>>>>>>> Nazem Kadri lol.

[GD]

Tyler Bozak >>>>>>>>>>>> Nazem Kadri lol.

 

David Clarkson > Mikhail Grabovski

 

But don't worry. Every move we've made in the past 4 years has been golden.

[GD]

Kadri for Glencross please.

 

How are his possession stats? Solid scorer but idk if I'd do Kadri for him. He's 31.

[Abomination]

How are his possession stats? Solid scorer but idk if I'd do Kadri for him. He's 31.

 

Keep in mind JFaS is a Flames fan