I'll leave this right here...
3. Shane Bieber, RHP
Projected Contract: 5 years, $150M
There’s an argument to be made that Bieber is the best available starting pitcher in this year’s class. He doesn’t possess the top-shelf stuff quality of Valdez and Cease, but his on-field performance has perhaps more upside than either.
The key metric for Bieber is fastball velocity. During the 2022 and 2023 seasons, Bieber’s velocity dipped to 91.3 mph, and his strikeout rate plummeted. Coming back from surgery this season, Bieber proved that his velocity was almost all the way back to where it was when he started his career, averaging 92.6 mph. With a full, healthy offseason, he very likely could look like the pitcher he was in 2019-2021—a dominant strikeout artist and Cy Young Award winner.
That’s the optimistic scenario in which Bieber fully recaptures his velocity and challenges for Cy Youngs. In the pessimistic scenario, in which Bieber’s velocity returns to 2022-2023 levels, you get a pitcher with 3.25 ERA, which is right in line with his career ERA of 3.24—better than either of the two pitchers listed before him.
Bieber likely won’t get the biggest contract this offseason, but his combination of floor and ceiling is unmatched in this free agent class.