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It's an exciting time around baseball for prospect watchers and fans looking towards the future, as MLB's Spring Breakout is coming soon, with top prospects from every team suiting up and putting on a showcase. The Blue Jays' prospects will face the Phillies' prospects on Saturday, March 21 at 1:05 p.m. E.T., on the road in Clearwater at BayCare Ballpark. Here is the Blue Jays' 2026 Spring Breakout roster: Pitchers RHP Austin Cates LHP Javen Coleman RHP Daniel Guerra LHP Adam Macko RHP Landen Maroudis RHP Carson Messina RHP Nolan Perry RHP Grant Rogers RHP Gage Stanifer Catchers Edward Duran Aaron Parker Brandon Valenzuela Infielders 3B Cutter Coffey SS Josh Kasevich 3B/1B Sean Keys 3B/1B Charles McAdoo SS Arjun Nimmala SS JoJo Parker 3B Tim Piasentin SS Josh Rivera 3B Juan Sanchez Outfielders Jace Bohrofen Blaine Bullard Jake Casey Eddie Micheletti Jr. Yohendrick Pinango RJ Schreck And here are some key things to pay attention to during the game: Debuts for Some High-Profile 2025 Draftees JoJo Parker was the Jays’ first-round pick, as they used the eighth overall pick on him, but he has yet to make his professional debut. In spring training, he was in the minor league camp, which hid him from the general public. This will be the first time that Jays fans will get to see him live on a broadcast. Parker is still only 19, and despite the advanced hit tool, this will be his first look at professional pitching in a game setting. High schoolers Tim Piasentin, out of Alberta, and Blaine Bullard are also making their debuts in this Spring Breakout game. They’re definitely more raw than Parker is, but the Jays shelled out big bonuses for both of them of $747,500 and $1,697,500, respectively. Juan Sanchez wasn’t drafted in 2025, but was signed out of international amateur free agency and had a breakout 2025 in the Dominican Summer League. This will be his first time in action with Statcast data publicly available, and hopefully, fans will get to see his plus power and advanced physicality. Return of the Injured Players Nolan Perry was a 12th-round pick in the 2022 draft for the Blue Jays, and in his age-20 season with the Dunedin Blue Jays, he pitched to a 2.93 ERA in 14 starts with a 27.5% K-rate, although he walked batters 18.8% of the time. Despite his lack of command, he was positioned for a breakout before heading to the injured list due to Tommy John surgery, making him miss all of the 2025 season. This will be his first time pitching in a game since he had the surgery, and it will be nice to see him back in action. Carson Messina is the brother of Rockies prospect Cole Messina, and unlike his brother, he pitches instead of catching. Signed out of high school for a $550,000 bonus, he was shelved for the 2025 season with elbow inflammation, but is back and throwing again. If he gets into this game, we’ll get to see him in pro action for the first time since his one appearance in the Complex League in 2025. He reportedly hit triple digits in that appearance, and hopefully, he’s healthy enough to do so again. Landen Maroudis had a lost 2025 season after returning from Tommy John surgery, showing reduced stuff, velocity and command. Reportedly, he’s back sitting where he was in the first Spring Breakout game: the mid 90s. If Maroudis has returned to his pre-Tommy John form, he’ll return as a breakout candidate for the Blue Jays. The 2027 Spring Breakout event will be modified to be a tournament-style bracket, but in 2026, it will just be a singular exhibition game. This will mean that some players won't be able to get in the game, due to the limited number of innings and teams wanting to protect the health of their prospects. Still, this is a great day for all prospect watchers across every organization and should provide great insight into the future of the Blue Jays.
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Toronto Blue Jays 2026 Top Prospect Rankings: No. 16-20
Simon Li replied to Simon Li's topic in Blue Jays Minor League Talk
There are some guys that I would have ranked over these three that have a ton of promise as well. The depth is definitely lacking a bit, mostly due to us selling every deadline, but there are still 10+ prospects that could have been considered for the last 3 slots.- 9 replies
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The Toronto Blue Jays have had some of the strongest catching tandems in the sport over the past decade, as they have the third-highest fWAR amongst catchers since the 2015 MLB season. They’ve now locked up their star catcher Alejandro Kirk for the foreseeable future, and with some recent trades and development amongst prospects, the Jays should be set for at least the next few years. Toronto Blue Jays Catchers at a Glance Starter: Alejandro Kirk Backup: Tyler Heineman Depth: CJ Stubbs, Robert Brooks, Brandon Valenzuela, Geovanny Planchart Prospects: Valenzuela, Edward Duran, Juan Caricote, Franklin Rojas, Aaron Parker Blue Jays C fWAR rank in 2025: 2nd out of 30 Blue Jays C FGDC Projection for 2026: 2nd out of 30 The Good Alejandro Kirk is at minimum a top-five catcher in the sport, but has an argument to be the second best. The stocky catcher once again showed elite glovework in 2025, trailing only Patrick Bailey in Framing Run Value, and got snubbed from winning his first Gold Glove. Kirk also put it together once again on the offensive end, slashing .282/.348/.421 for a 116 wRC+, which was good for fifth overall among qualified primary catchers. Kirk’s underlying metrics point to even more offensive excellence, as the catcher paired a 91st-percentile hard-hit rate with a diminutive whiff rate, and the projections think that he will either repeat or exceed his last season’s performance. Adding on to the brilliance of Alejandro Kirk, the magician and super-sub Tyler Heineman was incredible in 2025 as well, putting up 2.1 fWAR off the bench. His offensive performance was buoyed by an unsustainable BABIP of .347, but Heiney’s defensive profile makes him a valuable second-string catcher even without carrying a 120 wRC+. Heineman also had a +8 Fielding Run Value, which helped the Blue Jays lead the league in defensive value from the catcher position last season. He is unlikely to come near his offensive production from the 2025 season, but will be a stable presence whenever Kirk needs to sit. The Jays made some high-profile moves around the trade deadline last year to shore up their bullpen, but a trade that seemed to sneak under the radar was their acquisition of Brandon Valenzuela from the Padres in exchange for Will Wagner. Heralded for his defensive chops, Valenzuela showed a plus arm last season, with 33 runners caught stealing in the minors. The Jays might have also found something offensively, as in a tiny sample size in spring training (as of March 13), Valenzuela has started off scorching, making consistent and loud contact. Graphic via @TJStats Lastly, the Jays are lacking a little at the catcher position in the minors, but they just gave out their biggest international amateur free agency signing bonus of the period to a Venezuelan catcher named Juan Caricote. Edward Duran showed flashes in A-ball in 2025 and should be pushing to join the 40-man roster after a good 2026 season, while Franklin Rojas has been one of the better hitters in the Dominican Summer League for the Blue Jays. The Bad With Kirk signed through the 2030 season, the Jays have no pressing need for another starting-caliber catching prospect in their system. Still, there is a glaring talent gap between Kirk and the prospects in the organization. The top catching prospects for the Jays all profile more as backup catchers or third-stringers, and although the Jays have shown a penchant for developing starting catchers (Gabriel Moreno, Danny Jansen and Kirk in recent years), they could be in a tough spot if Kirk is hurt for an extended amount of time. The Jays also lack depth options with MLB experience like they had last season, with Ali Sánchez and Christian Bethancourt having left the org. Instead, Valenzuela will most likely be the main third-string catcher, and he has yet to play an MLB game. If he isn’t available, the next catcher is CJ Stubbs, who has a singular game with the Nationals under his belt. After that, Robert Brooks and recent minor league signing Geovanny Planchart could see game time if worse comes to worst. These are all nitpicky, however, as things will have to go really wrong for these issues to rear their ugly heads, and the Jays value the catcher position heavily, which leads me to believe that these issues can be resolved. The Bottom Line Alejandro Kirk has reclaimed his spot as one of the best catchers in the game, and the Jays’ success at catcher will reflect mostly on his performance. With Bo Bichette leaving the organization, Kirk becomes the Jays’ second most important position player for the foreseeable future, and at his peak, he is one of the best in the game. The depth charts do look a little light without him, and Heineman will not repeat the performance of his previous season, but Toronto still has a solid contingent of defensively capable catchers whenever Kirk needs a rest. Hopefully, the Jays will develop some of their younger catching prospects to be ready when Kirk is a free agent after 2030, but for now, they’re in a great spot. View full article
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The Toronto Blue Jays have had some of the strongest catching tandems in the sport over the past decade, as they have the third-highest fWAR amongst catchers since the 2015 MLB season. They’ve now locked up their star catcher Alejandro Kirk for the foreseeable future, and with some recent trades and development amongst prospects, the Jays should be set for at least the next few years. Toronto Blue Jays Catchers at a Glance Starter: Alejandro Kirk Backup: Tyler Heineman Depth: CJ Stubbs, Robert Brooks, Brandon Valenzuela, Geovanny Planchart Prospects: Valenzuela, Edward Duran, Juan Caricote, Franklin Rojas, Aaron Parker Blue Jays C fWAR rank in 2025: 2nd out of 30 Blue Jays C FGDC Projection for 2026: 2nd out of 30 The Good Alejandro Kirk is at minimum a top-five catcher in the sport, but has an argument to be the second best. The stocky catcher once again showed elite glovework in 2025, trailing only Patrick Bailey in Framing Run Value, and got snubbed from winning his first Gold Glove. Kirk also put it together once again on the offensive end, slashing .282/.348/.421 for a 116 wRC+, which was good for fifth overall among qualified primary catchers. Kirk’s underlying metrics point to even more offensive excellence, as the catcher paired a 91st-percentile hard-hit rate with a diminutive whiff rate, and the projections think that he will either repeat or exceed his last season’s performance. Adding on to the brilliance of Alejandro Kirk, the magician and super-sub Tyler Heineman was incredible in 2025 as well, putting up 2.1 fWAR off the bench. His offensive performance was buoyed by an unsustainable BABIP of .347, but Heiney’s defensive profile makes him a valuable second-string catcher even without carrying a 120 wRC+. Heineman also had a +8 Fielding Run Value, which helped the Blue Jays lead the league in defensive value from the catcher position last season. He is unlikely to come near his offensive production from the 2025 season, but will be a stable presence whenever Kirk needs to sit. The Jays made some high-profile moves around the trade deadline last year to shore up their bullpen, but a trade that seemed to sneak under the radar was their acquisition of Brandon Valenzuela from the Padres in exchange for Will Wagner. Heralded for his defensive chops, Valenzuela showed a plus arm last season, with 33 runners caught stealing in the minors. The Jays might have also found something offensively, as in a tiny sample size in spring training (as of March 13), Valenzuela has started off scorching, making consistent and loud contact. Graphic via @TJStats Lastly, the Jays are lacking a little at the catcher position in the minors, but they just gave out their biggest international amateur free agency signing bonus of the period to a Venezuelan catcher named Juan Caricote. Edward Duran showed flashes in A-ball in 2025 and should be pushing to join the 40-man roster after a good 2026 season, while Franklin Rojas has been one of the better hitters in the Dominican Summer League for the Blue Jays. The Bad With Kirk signed through the 2030 season, the Jays have no pressing need for another starting-caliber catching prospect in their system. Still, there is a glaring talent gap between Kirk and the prospects in the organization. The top catching prospects for the Jays all profile more as backup catchers or third-stringers, and although the Jays have shown a penchant for developing starting catchers (Gabriel Moreno, Danny Jansen and Kirk in recent years), they could be in a tough spot if Kirk is hurt for an extended amount of time. The Jays also lack depth options with MLB experience like they had last season, with Ali Sánchez and Christian Bethancourt having left the org. Instead, Valenzuela will most likely be the main third-string catcher, and he has yet to play an MLB game. If he isn’t available, the next catcher is CJ Stubbs, who has a singular game with the Nationals under his belt. After that, Robert Brooks and recent minor league signing Geovanny Planchart could see game time if worse comes to worst. These are all nitpicky, however, as things will have to go really wrong for these issues to rear their ugly heads, and the Jays value the catcher position heavily, which leads me to believe that these issues can be resolved. The Bottom Line Alejandro Kirk has reclaimed his spot as one of the best catchers in the game, and the Jays’ success at catcher will reflect mostly on his performance. With Bo Bichette leaving the organization, Kirk becomes the Jays’ second most important position player for the foreseeable future, and at his peak, he is one of the best in the game. The depth charts do look a little light without him, and Heineman will not repeat the performance of his previous season, but Toronto still has a solid contingent of defensively capable catchers whenever Kirk needs a rest. Hopefully, the Jays will develop some of their younger catching prospects to be ready when Kirk is a free agent after 2030, but for now, they’re in a great spot.
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Toronto Blue Jays 2026 Top Prospect Rankings: No. 16-20
Simon Li replied to Simon Li's topic in Blue Jays Minor League Talk
The tools do not necessarily match the results so people are mixed on how high his ceiling can be. He's probably most suited to be a 4th outfielder type/platoon bat. There's a disconnect between the scouts/analysts essentially. I personally had him closer to the top 10, but I can see the argument for him being lower than that.- 9 replies
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The Toronto Blue Jays had a great year on the farm in 2025, and although there were some key subtractions as they added at the deadline to compete for the division, the minor league system is in a stronger place than it was this same time last year. Here are the prospects ranked 16th to 20th in the Jays organization, as voted on by JaysCentre writers. 20. RHP Landen Maroudis (FCL, Dunedin Blue Jays) ERA FIP xFIP IP G GS K% BB% K-BB% HR/9 SwStr% Whiff% WHIP BABIP LOB% LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB 6.55 6.11 6.88 45.1 18 17 15.7% 20.8% -5.1% 0.2 10.1% 24.9% 1.79 .282 63.3% 14.6% 46.3% 39.% 12.5% 2.1% Landen Maroudis was a name to watch at the beginning of the 2024 season. He had a promising showing in an appearance in the MLB Spring Breakout game and pitched in just three games in Single-A Dunedin before heading to the injured list with an elbow injury. After more than a year of rehab and recovery, Maroudis was back pitching, but things had changed significantly. His velocity on his fastball, once sitting at 94 mph, only sat at 90 mph. The pitch dropped from 13 inches of vertical break down to 11, but did gain four inches of run. His control disappeared, as he walked more batters than he struck out and had a strike rate of just 51.8%. Maroudis will only be 21 years old in the 2026 season, and despite the setback to his health, pitch quality, velocity, and command, there’s practically nowhere for him to go but up. With a full offseason not spent rehabbing, there’s reason to believe that he’ll rediscover the velocity that he had prior to the elbow surgery, and that he’ll find some semblance of command as well. His pitches looked mediocre due to the lack of velocity, but when he was able to find the zone, Single-A hitters didn’t make great contact, and his curveball had a whiff rate of over 40%. Maroudis’ future looks much shakier than ever before, but the athleticism and potential from when the Jays gave him a $1.5 million signing bonus in 2023 can still prevail if he returns to form. Maroudis will get another chance to pitch in Dunedin this season, and reportedly, his velocity is back up to the 93-95 mph range. 19. OF Yeuni Munoz (FCL, Dunedin Blue Jays) PA H 2B 3B HR OPS wRC+ wOBA K% BB% SwStr% Whiff% PULL% CENT% OPPO% LD% GB% FB% IFFB% SB CS SB% 90th EV 127 28 8 0 6 .809 125 .380 29.9% 9.4% 16.6% 33.6% 56.9% 25.0% 18.1% 18.6% 50.0% 31.4% 27.3% 2 1 66.67% 107.1 Yeuni Munoz was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2021, and although he hit decently in the Dominican Summer League as a 17-year-old, he hasn’t been able to put together a season worth remembering since, as he has struggled with inconsistency and injuries. However, as a 21-year-old in his second trip to Single-A, he really found his footing out of the gate, hitting .323/.408/.645 for a 186 wRC+ in April, with extremely strong batted ball data to back up the performance. He was consistently at the top of the exit velocity leaderboards after every game. Unfortunately for Munoz, he hurt his knee, which sidelined him until August. He struggled to make contact as effectively upon his return, resulting in a quieter end to his season. Yet, Munoz showed improved contact metrics; his 67.8% contact rate was still poor, but a 10% increase from his 2024 season. His power was on display as well, with a max exit velocity of 112.2 mph, a 107.1 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, and a 92.4 mph average exit velocity. Munoz was seemingly on the pathway to being a breakout prospect for the Jays, but the expectations have dampened due to his inability to stay healthy. He will project to have plus power given his strong exit velocities as a 21-year-old, but he’s already only a corner outfielder at this stage of his career, and he isn’t much of a runner with his hulking frame, meaning that the majority of his value will have to come from his bat. His strikeout issues are still a large concern, as he ran nearly a 30% K rate even with improved contact metrics. If Munoz can make just enough contact, he has a path to being a platoon hitter with power; he’ll just need to stay healthy enough to get enough reps to prove it. 18. LHP Brandon Barriera (FCL) ERA FIP xFIP IP G GS K% BB% K-BB% HR/9 SwStr% Whiff% WHIP BABIP LOB% LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB 14.29 6.21 6.64 5.2 5 5 21.4% 28.6% -7.10% 0.0 15.9% N/A 1.94 0.231 25.0% 10.0% 60.0% 30.0% 33.3% 0.0% Brandon Barriera has been snake-bitten ever since he was drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays back in 2022 as their first-round pick. He dealt with multiple arm injuries in his first professional season and had issues with his conditioning. He then had elbow surgery in 2024 after making just one start, leading to another injury-plagued season. Despite the injuries, reports came out on Barriera looking really good on the backfields, showing much improved stuff. He returned to pitching in the Florida Complex League, where he only pitched five and a third of an inning, with extremely wild command, walking nearly 30% of the batters that he faced. Adding on to his injury woes, he then fractured his elbow, putting him on the injured list for the rest of the season. Despite the poor results, and another season cut short by injury, Barriera’s fastball reached 99 mph, and his cutter and slider both looked great despite the wildness. Barriera has a ton of reliever risk, given his prolonged injury history and inability to throw strikes, and his future outlook will highly depend on if he can stay on the field or not. The Jays will take it slow with him to ensure that he can stay healthy. If he can figure out a consistent release point that allows him to throw strikes, he’ll jump up this list. 17. 1B/3B Sean Keys (Vancouver Canadians) PA H 2B 3B HR OPS wRC+ wOBA K% BB% SwStr% Whiff% PULL% CENT% OPPO% LD% GB% FB% IFFB% SB CS SB% 90th EV 529 92 22 1 19 .773 119 .360 22.1% 16.3% 8.4% 27.4% 53.4% 22.0% 24.6% 19.7% 38.8% 41.4% 25.8% 8 1 88.9% 102.7 Sean Keys was selected in the fourth round of the 2024 draft by the Blue Jays out of Bucknell. In his first stint in Single-A Dunedin, he showed an advanced approach, with a 134 wRC+ in 98 plate appearances. The Jays then sent him up to Vancouver the following year, where Keys performed solidly but didn’t have numbers that jumped off the page, hitting .217/.365/.408 for a 119 wRC+ in 529 plate appearances. Vancouver is one of the toughest parks in which to hit in the minor leagues, however, and Keys showed underlying metrics that signified he had a much better season than his results showed, with strong barrel rates and plate discipline. Keys is strong bodied, standing 6-foot-2 and weighing 232 pounds, and when he made contact, he had strong exit velocities that translated to above-average raw power, as he was adept at turning on pitches at optimal launch angles, leading to a Vancouver Canadians record 19 homers in a single season. Defensively, Keys is most suited to first base. Although he has the arm for third, the range can be a little stretched thin at the position. He’s still new at first, and it shows a bit, but he’s a smart player and has taken to it pretty well. His glove is secondary to his bat, which is where he will derive most, if not all of his value. He’ll most likely get a chance to see more advanced pitching soon, as he’s on track to start the season off with Double-A New Hampshire. 16. OF RJ Schreck (New Hampshire FisherCats, Buffalo Bisons) PA H 2B 3B HR OPS wRC+ wOBA K% BB% SwStr% Whiff% PULL% CENT% OPPO% LD% GB% FB% IFFB% SB CS SB% 90th EV 427 85 14 2 18 .854 143 .393 21.3% 16.4% 8.2% 22.1% 55.4% 21.1% 23.5% 21.9% 35.6% 42.5% 31.4% 9 1 90.0% 103.3 RJ Schreck was acquired from the Seattle Mariners at the 2024 trade deadline for the old vet Justin Turner after breaking out with their High-A team. He continued that momentum with the Jays organization, with a strong finish to the year at Double-A for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, slashing .255/.377/.521 in 114 plate appearances. He was even better in 2025, continuing his success with a .266/.396/.518 slash line before getting promoted to Triple-A Buffalo. Schreck did deal with an injury after his promotion to Buffalo but still performed well after coming back. He capped off his season in Triple-A with a 129 wRC+. Schreck’s offensive production is backed by solid swing decisions that may be a little passive, with a 22.3% chase rate as well as an innate ability to barrel the ball in the air to the pull side. His raw exit velocities do not jump off the page, and although he’s stronger than he was just a few years ago, his average exit velocities were below average in Triple-A. His max and 90th percentile exit velocities were fringe-average as well, although he did set a new career high max velocity at 111.9 mph in Double-A. Although the data looks very good for Schreck, there are some concerns with his swing being a little too long and stiff to match up to higher velocities. The Jays have found success with similar style hitters to Schreck — older prospects carried by a strong approach more than significant tools like Davis Schneider and Spencer Horwitz —which gives him a solid floor as a platoon bat/fourth outfielder, but the ceiling may also be limited in the same vein. Defensively, Schreck is more suited to the corners, especially as an average runner, but the Jays like to throw him out in center field anyway. There’s a bit of a crowded outfield situation, even with the injury to Anthony Santander, as the Jays just acquired Jesús Sánchez, but there’s definitely a path forward for Schreck as a fourth outfielder. Schreck will be a part of Team Israel in the 2026 WBC, which will give him a chance to face MLB-level talent. View full article
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The Toronto Blue Jays had a great year on the farm in 2025, and although there were some key subtractions as they added at the deadline to compete for the division, the minor league system is in a stronger place than it was this same time last year. Here are the prospects ranked 16th to 20th in the Jays organization, as voted on by JaysCentre writers. 20. RHP Landen Maroudis (FCL, Dunedin Blue Jays) ERA FIP xFIP IP G GS K% BB% K-BB% HR/9 SwStr% Whiff% WHIP BABIP LOB% LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB 6.55 6.11 6.88 45.1 18 17 15.7% 20.8% -5.1% 0.2 10.1% 24.9% 1.79 .282 63.3% 14.6% 46.3% 39.% 12.5% 2.1% Landen Maroudis was a name to watch at the beginning of the 2024 season. He had a promising showing in an appearance in the MLB Spring Breakout game and pitched in just three games in Single-A Dunedin before heading to the injured list with an elbow injury. After more than a year of rehab and recovery, Maroudis was back pitching, but things had changed significantly. His velocity on his fastball, once sitting at 94 mph, only sat at 90 mph. The pitch dropped from 13 inches of vertical break down to 11, but did gain four inches of run. His control disappeared, as he walked more batters than he struck out and had a strike rate of just 51.8%. Maroudis will only be 21 years old in the 2026 season, and despite the setback to his health, pitch quality, velocity, and command, there’s practically nowhere for him to go but up. With a full offseason not spent rehabbing, there’s reason to believe that he’ll rediscover the velocity that he had prior to the elbow surgery, and that he’ll find some semblance of command as well. His pitches looked mediocre due to the lack of velocity, but when he was able to find the zone, Single-A hitters didn’t make great contact, and his curveball had a whiff rate of over 40%. Maroudis’ future looks much shakier than ever before, but the athleticism and potential from when the Jays gave him a $1.5 million signing bonus in 2023 can still prevail if he returns to form. Maroudis will get another chance to pitch in Dunedin this season, and reportedly, his velocity is back up to the 93-95 mph range. 19. OF Yeuni Munoz (FCL, Dunedin Blue Jays) PA H 2B 3B HR OPS wRC+ wOBA K% BB% SwStr% Whiff% PULL% CENT% OPPO% LD% GB% FB% IFFB% SB CS SB% 90th EV 127 28 8 0 6 .809 125 .380 29.9% 9.4% 16.6% 33.6% 56.9% 25.0% 18.1% 18.6% 50.0% 31.4% 27.3% 2 1 66.67% 107.1 Yeuni Munoz was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2021, and although he hit decently in the Dominican Summer League as a 17-year-old, he hasn’t been able to put together a season worth remembering since, as he has struggled with inconsistency and injuries. However, as a 21-year-old in his second trip to Single-A, he really found his footing out of the gate, hitting .323/.408/.645 for a 186 wRC+ in April, with extremely strong batted ball data to back up the performance. He was consistently at the top of the exit velocity leaderboards after every game. Unfortunately for Munoz, he hurt his knee, which sidelined him until August. He struggled to make contact as effectively upon his return, resulting in a quieter end to his season. Yet, Munoz showed improved contact metrics; his 67.8% contact rate was still poor, but a 10% increase from his 2024 season. His power was on display as well, with a max exit velocity of 112.2 mph, a 107.1 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, and a 92.4 mph average exit velocity. Munoz was seemingly on the pathway to being a breakout prospect for the Jays, but the expectations have dampened due to his inability to stay healthy. He will project to have plus power given his strong exit velocities as a 21-year-old, but he’s already only a corner outfielder at this stage of his career, and he isn’t much of a runner with his hulking frame, meaning that the majority of his value will have to come from his bat. His strikeout issues are still a large concern, as he ran nearly a 30% K rate even with improved contact metrics. If Munoz can make just enough contact, he has a path to being a platoon hitter with power; he’ll just need to stay healthy enough to get enough reps to prove it. 18. LHP Brandon Barriera (FCL) ERA FIP xFIP IP G GS K% BB% K-BB% HR/9 SwStr% Whiff% WHIP BABIP LOB% LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB 14.29 6.21 6.64 5.2 5 5 21.4% 28.6% -7.10% 0.0 15.9% N/A 1.94 0.231 25.0% 10.0% 60.0% 30.0% 33.3% 0.0% Brandon Barriera has been snake-bitten ever since he was drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays back in 2022 as their first-round pick. He dealt with multiple arm injuries in his first professional season and had issues with his conditioning. He then had elbow surgery in 2024 after making just one start, leading to another injury-plagued season. Despite the injuries, reports came out on Barriera looking really good on the backfields, showing much improved stuff. He returned to pitching in the Florida Complex League, where he only pitched five and a third of an inning, with extremely wild command, walking nearly 30% of the batters that he faced. Adding on to his injury woes, he then fractured his elbow, putting him on the injured list for the rest of the season. Despite the poor results, and another season cut short by injury, Barriera’s fastball reached 99 mph, and his cutter and slider both looked great despite the wildness. Barriera has a ton of reliever risk, given his prolonged injury history and inability to throw strikes, and his future outlook will highly depend on if he can stay on the field or not. The Jays will take it slow with him to ensure that he can stay healthy. If he can figure out a consistent release point that allows him to throw strikes, he’ll jump up this list. 17. 1B/3B Sean Keys (Vancouver Canadians) PA H 2B 3B HR OPS wRC+ wOBA K% BB% SwStr% Whiff% PULL% CENT% OPPO% LD% GB% FB% IFFB% SB CS SB% 90th EV 529 92 22 1 19 .773 119 .360 22.1% 16.3% 8.4% 27.4% 53.4% 22.0% 24.6% 19.7% 38.8% 41.4% 25.8% 8 1 88.9% 102.7 Sean Keys was selected in the fourth round of the 2024 draft by the Blue Jays out of Bucknell. In his first stint in Single-A Dunedin, he showed an advanced approach, with a 134 wRC+ in 98 plate appearances. The Jays then sent him up to Vancouver the following year, where Keys performed solidly but didn’t have numbers that jumped off the page, hitting .217/.365/.408 for a 119 wRC+ in 529 plate appearances. Vancouver is one of the toughest parks in which to hit in the minor leagues, however, and Keys showed underlying metrics that signified he had a much better season than his results showed, with strong barrel rates and plate discipline. Keys is strong bodied, standing 6-foot-2 and weighing 232 pounds, and when he made contact, he had strong exit velocities that translated to above-average raw power, as he was adept at turning on pitches at optimal launch angles, leading to a Vancouver Canadians record 19 homers in a single season. Defensively, Keys is most suited to first base. Although he has the arm for third, the range can be a little stretched thin at the position. He’s still new at first, and it shows a bit, but he’s a smart player and has taken to it pretty well. His glove is secondary to his bat, which is where he will derive most, if not all of his value. He’ll most likely get a chance to see more advanced pitching soon, as he’s on track to start the season off with Double-A New Hampshire. 16. OF RJ Schreck (New Hampshire FisherCats, Buffalo Bisons) PA H 2B 3B HR OPS wRC+ wOBA K% BB% SwStr% Whiff% PULL% CENT% OPPO% LD% GB% FB% IFFB% SB CS SB% 90th EV 427 85 14 2 18 .854 143 .393 21.3% 16.4% 8.2% 22.1% 55.4% 21.1% 23.5% 21.9% 35.6% 42.5% 31.4% 9 1 90.0% 103.3 RJ Schreck was acquired from the Seattle Mariners at the 2024 trade deadline for the old vet Justin Turner after breaking out with their High-A team. He continued that momentum with the Jays organization, with a strong finish to the year at Double-A for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, slashing .255/.377/.521 in 114 plate appearances. He was even better in 2025, continuing his success with a .266/.396/.518 slash line before getting promoted to Triple-A Buffalo. Schreck did deal with an injury after his promotion to Buffalo but still performed well after coming back. He capped off his season in Triple-A with a 129 wRC+. Schreck’s offensive production is backed by solid swing decisions that may be a little passive, with a 22.3% chase rate as well as an innate ability to barrel the ball in the air to the pull side. His raw exit velocities do not jump off the page, and although he’s stronger than he was just a few years ago, his average exit velocities were below average in Triple-A. His max and 90th percentile exit velocities were fringe-average as well, although he did set a new career high max velocity at 111.9 mph in Double-A. Although the data looks very good for Schreck, there are some concerns with his swing being a little too long and stiff to match up to higher velocities. The Jays have found success with similar style hitters to Schreck — older prospects carried by a strong approach more than significant tools like Davis Schneider and Spencer Horwitz —which gives him a solid floor as a platoon bat/fourth outfielder, but the ceiling may also be limited in the same vein. Defensively, Schreck is more suited to the corners, especially as an average runner, but the Jays like to throw him out in center field anyway. There’s a bit of a crowded outfield situation, even with the injury to Anthony Santander, as the Jays just acquired Jesús Sánchez, but there’s definitely a path forward for Schreck as a fourth outfielder. Schreck will be a part of Team Israel in the 2026 WBC, which will give him a chance to face MLB-level talent.
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Silvano Hechavarria was an overshadowed part of the Blue Jays' excellent 2025 season on the pitching end, as the Cuban righty put together a great campaign in his first year stateside. The 6-foot-4 righty was a man among boys, as he pitched to a 2.28 ERA/3.55 FIP with a 17.1% K-BB% in 86 2/3 innings pitched. Hechavarria utilized a strong three-pitch mix in 2025, with his four-seam fastball sitting 92-95 and touching 97 with average carry and strong arm-side run. His main secondary was his cut slider that sat in the upper 80s with strong whiff rates; hitters failed to make solid contact on the pitch. His third offering, deployed more to lefties, was a changeup with around nine inches of vertical separation from his fastball, sitting in the mid-80s. The stuff did not jump off the page despite the solid velocity, but it was able to play up given Hechavarria’s advanced command for his age. Graphic via @TJstats Here are Silvano’s three main pitches by location in 2025 in Single-A Dunedin. He was able to land his changeup in a really nice spot for lefties to miss, his sliders were consistently on the edge of the zone, and he was able to consistently land his four-seam fastball for strikes at the top of the zone. The results were there, with Hechavarria having only a 5.9% walk rate in Dunedin, as lower-level hitters were unable to do much with his pitches at those locations. Locations for Hechavarria's changeup, four-seam fastball, and slider/cutter, respectively. Hechavarria still has some developing to do, as although he was able to dominate lower-minors hitters, the arsenal may not be as effective against more advanced hitters, who will be less likely to chase pitches even with good location. Hechavarria’s command will still allow his pitches to play up, but without a true standout pitch, he may not have the highest upside, barring some advancement to the velocity or shape of his current arsenal. For now, the odds are more likely that he’ll be a solid fifth starter in the majors. The Jays are good at building strength, and despite Hechavarria already being 6-foot-4 and over 200 lbs, he still could add strength to his frame. Hechavarria is only turning 23 in March, and with his advanced command for his age and average stuff, there is some projection to dream on as he advances to the upper minors, where he could start the 2026 season. Hechavarria has been named a potential Blue Jays breakout prospect by Geoff Pontes from Baseball America, and in FanGraphs’ latest "Picks to Click" article, an anonymous scout named Hechavarria as a candidate to become a top-100 overall prospect in 2027. If he can prove that he can continue to get hitters out when he reaches the upper minors, he may very well fulfill that lofty evaluation. View full article
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Is Silvano Hechavarria the Blue Jays' Next Top-100 Prospect?
Simon Li posted an article in Minor Leagues
Silvano Hechavarria was an overshadowed part of the Blue Jays' excellent 2025 season on the pitching end, as the Cuban righty put together a great campaign in his first year stateside. The 6-foot-4 righty was a man among boys, as he pitched to a 2.28 ERA/3.55 FIP with a 17.1% K-BB% in 86 2/3 innings pitched. Hechavarria utilized a strong three-pitch mix in 2025, with his four-seam fastball sitting 92-95 and touching 97 with average carry and strong arm-side run. His main secondary was his cut slider that sat in the upper 80s with strong whiff rates; hitters failed to make solid contact on the pitch. His third offering, deployed more to lefties, was a changeup with around nine inches of vertical separation from his fastball, sitting in the mid-80s. The stuff did not jump off the page despite the solid velocity, but it was able to play up given Hechavarria’s advanced command for his age. Graphic via @TJstats Here are Silvano’s three main pitches by location in 2025 in Single-A Dunedin. He was able to land his changeup in a really nice spot for lefties to miss, his sliders were consistently on the edge of the zone, and he was able to consistently land his four-seam fastball for strikes at the top of the zone. The results were there, with Hechavarria having only a 5.9% walk rate in Dunedin, as lower-level hitters were unable to do much with his pitches at those locations. Locations for Hechavarria's changeup, four-seam fastball, and slider/cutter, respectively. Hechavarria still has some developing to do, as although he was able to dominate lower-minors hitters, the arsenal may not be as effective against more advanced hitters, who will be less likely to chase pitches even with good location. Hechavarria’s command will still allow his pitches to play up, but without a true standout pitch, he may not have the highest upside, barring some advancement to the velocity or shape of his current arsenal. For now, the odds are more likely that he’ll be a solid fifth starter in the majors. The Jays are good at building strength, and despite Hechavarria already being 6-foot-4 and over 200 lbs, he still could add strength to his frame. Hechavarria is only turning 23 in March, and with his advanced command for his age and average stuff, there is some projection to dream on as he advances to the upper minors, where he could start the 2026 season. Hechavarria has been named a potential Blue Jays breakout prospect by Geoff Pontes from Baseball America, and in FanGraphs’ latest "Picks to Click" article, an anonymous scout named Hechavarria as a candidate to become a top-100 overall prospect in 2027. If he can prove that he can continue to get hitters out when he reaches the upper minors, he may very well fulfill that lofty evaluation. -
Leo Jiménez has been a prospect in the Blue Jays system for a while now. Acquired as a teenager out of Panama in international amateur free agency, Jiménez has been in the organization for over six years. Despite missing time due to injury and the COVID year, Jiménez steadily climbed his way up the org, with strong on-base skills while playing a solid shortstop. That culminated in a “breakout” 2024, when Bo Bichette missed time due to injuries. Jiménez appeared in 63 games and took 210 PA; he was a league-average hitter (101 wRC+) and played solid defense at second base and shortstop. 2025 was a setback, however, for Jiménez, as although he was granted an additional option year due to his previous injury history, he struggled once again to stay healthy, only playing a combined 44 games across the major and minor leagues. In a short cup of coffee with the Jays, Jiménez slashed .069/.129/.172 for a -19 wRC+. It wasn’t all negatives, however, as when Jiménez was healthy and playing in Triple-A Buffalo, he showcased why the Jays have kept him around over all these years, with strong bat-to-ball skills with an 88.6% zone contact rate, as well as strong average exit velocities and hard hit numbers. He is mostly a line drive and groundball hitter, and instead of pulling the ball in the air, he sprays it to all fields instead, limiting his power production. Jiménez also showed solid plate discipline, leading to a high walk rate of 15.5%, but was passive, only swinging 39.3% of the time. He has a reputation as a ball magnet as well, as he’s had multiple seasons of 20+ hit by pitches, which adds to his on-base percentage. Jiménez's Triple-A season seems more representative of his abilities as a hitter, and despite his poor results in MLB in 2025, he still showed a knack for squaring up the ball. The biggest question for Jiménez is if he can break camp with Toronto, as he’s out of options now. The Jays' starting infield is already set, with Andrés Giménez at shortstop, Ernie Clement manning second base, and a platoon of Kazuma Okamoto and Addison Barger at third, leaving little room for Jiménez. However, with Clement thrust into a starting role, due to Bichette's departure and Giménez becoming the full-time shortstop, there is room for a backup middle infielder, and Jiménez is primed to take over. Toronto's recent trade for Jesús Sánchez, however, means another roster spot is locked in, as Sánchez is also out of options and will need to be on the MLB roster. Right now, FanGraphs' RosterResource has these position players projected to be on the MLB roster: C: Alejandro Kirk, Tyler Heineman INF: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Kazuma Okamoto, Ernie Clement, Andrés Giménez, Addison Barger OF: Nathan Lukes, Davis Schneider, George Springer, Daulton Varsho, Myles Straw, Jesús Sánchez Unfortunately for Jiménez, that is 13 hitters. Although the Jays could choose to roster only 12 pitchers and add an extra hitter, with the strenuous MLB season, teams usually roster the maximum number of pitchers. The outfield situation for the Jays is a little crowded, however. Even if Springer primarily plays DH while Anthony Santander is out for five to six months, there are five primary outfielders for three spots, in addition to Barger, who will move back and forth between third base and right field. The Jays could afford to option an outfielder so that they could bolster their infield depth. Lukes and Schneider both have at least one option remaining, as does Barger. Optioning one of them or trading one away could allow Clement to shift over to shortstop against tough lefties, while the righty-batting Jiménez steps in for the lefty-batting Giménez in the lineup. If Leo Jiménez cannot make the Opening Day roster, the Jays will be forced to make a similar decision to the one they made a few years ago with Otto Lopez, another right-handed hitting infielder who was granted an extra option year. Lopez has turned out to be a solid second division regular with the Marlins after being traded to the Giants and then DFA’d by San Francisco before Miami picked him up. Lopez has now had two straight seasons with over 2.0 fWAR for the Marlins, and Jiménez has the capability to be a similar player. There’s a spot on the Blue Jays roster for a right-handed hitting utility player; Jiménez just needs to take it. View full article
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Leo Jiménez has been a prospect in the Blue Jays system for a while now. Acquired as a teenager out of Panama in international amateur free agency, Jiménez has been in the organization for over six years. Despite missing time due to injury and the COVID year, Jiménez steadily climbed his way up the org, with strong on-base skills while playing a solid shortstop. That culminated in a “breakout” 2024, when Bo Bichette missed time due to injuries. Jiménez appeared in 63 games and took 210 PA; he was a league-average hitter (101 wRC+) and played solid defense at second base and shortstop. 2025 was a setback, however, for Jiménez, as although he was granted an additional option year due to his previous injury history, he struggled once again to stay healthy, only playing a combined 44 games across the major and minor leagues. In a short cup of coffee with the Jays, Jiménez slashed .069/.129/.172 for a -19 wRC+. It wasn’t all negatives, however, as when Jiménez was healthy and playing in Triple-A Buffalo, he showcased why the Jays have kept him around over all these years, with strong bat-to-ball skills with an 88.6% zone contact rate, as well as strong average exit velocities and hard hit numbers. He is mostly a line drive and groundball hitter, and instead of pulling the ball in the air, he sprays it to all fields instead, limiting his power production. Jiménez also showed solid plate discipline, leading to a high walk rate of 15.5%, but was passive, only swinging 39.3% of the time. He has a reputation as a ball magnet as well, as he’s had multiple seasons of 20+ hit by pitches, which adds to his on-base percentage. Jiménez's Triple-A season seems more representative of his abilities as a hitter, and despite his poor results in MLB in 2025, he still showed a knack for squaring up the ball. The biggest question for Jiménez is if he can break camp with Toronto, as he’s out of options now. The Jays' starting infield is already set, with Andrés Giménez at shortstop, Ernie Clement manning second base, and a platoon of Kazuma Okamoto and Addison Barger at third, leaving little room for Jiménez. However, with Clement thrust into a starting role, due to Bichette's departure and Giménez becoming the full-time shortstop, there is room for a backup middle infielder, and Jiménez is primed to take over. Toronto's recent trade for Jesús Sánchez, however, means another roster spot is locked in, as Sánchez is also out of options and will need to be on the MLB roster. Right now, FanGraphs' RosterResource has these position players projected to be on the MLB roster: C: Alejandro Kirk, Tyler Heineman INF: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Kazuma Okamoto, Ernie Clement, Andrés Giménez, Addison Barger OF: Nathan Lukes, Davis Schneider, George Springer, Daulton Varsho, Myles Straw, Jesús Sánchez Unfortunately for Jiménez, that is 13 hitters. Although the Jays could choose to roster only 12 pitchers and add an extra hitter, with the strenuous MLB season, teams usually roster the maximum number of pitchers. The outfield situation for the Jays is a little crowded, however. Even if Springer primarily plays DH while Anthony Santander is out for five to six months, there are five primary outfielders for three spots, in addition to Barger, who will move back and forth between third base and right field. The Jays could afford to option an outfielder so that they could bolster their infield depth. Lukes and Schneider both have at least one option remaining, as does Barger. Optioning one of them or trading one away could allow Clement to shift over to shortstop against tough lefties, while the righty-batting Jiménez steps in for the lefty-batting Giménez in the lineup. If Leo Jiménez cannot make the Opening Day roster, the Jays will be forced to make a similar decision to the one they made a few years ago with Otto Lopez, another right-handed hitting infielder who was granted an extra option year. Lopez has turned out to be a solid second division regular with the Marlins after being traded to the Giants and then DFA’d by San Francisco before Miami picked him up. Lopez has now had two straight seasons with over 2.0 fWAR for the Marlins, and Jiménez has the capability to be a similar player. There’s a spot on the Blue Jays roster for a right-handed hitting utility player; Jiménez just needs to take it.
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Trey Yesavage took the world by storm in 2025 with his high release point that led to a high rising fastball and a devastating splitter to pair alongside it. His third pitch is a harder gyro slider that sits in between the velo of his fastball and splitter, which forces hitters to guess when a pitch will be lower in the zone. The quirk of Yesavage’s arsenal is that none of his pitches break to the glove side, largely due to his release point and delivery, which make him such a nightmare for hitters to face. That does raise a concern, however, as if hitters know which direction his pitches are always going to move, will they figure him out faster than a pitcher with a more traditional four-pitch mix with pitches that break in both directions? And even if Yesavage remains effective with his current style of pitching, will he be able to stave off the three times through the order effect with just three pitches, or will he be able to get outs when one of his pitches isn’t 'on' on a certain day? Will he be able to maintain effectiveness over 30-ish starts, when division rivals are likely to see him multiple times? Graphic via @TJStats Meet the ‘new’ pitch, which is really an old pitch. Yesavage threw a low-80s 12-6 curveball in college, but since his three main pitches were so polished, it was a clear fourth pitch for him. Shape-wise, the curveball had little depth, with -7 inches of induced vertical break, and once again broke to the arm side. Baseball America gave the pitch a 45 FV grade, and with his limited usage of it in college, Yesavage wasn’t able to get a good enough feel for it to throw it in professional baseball. However, this didn’t mean that he completely left the curveball to rot. In August 2024, Mitch Bannon (now the Blue Jays beat reporter for The Athletic) reported that Yesavage was tinkering with a cutter and a curveball that he wanted to add prior to the 2025 season. This offseason, Yesavage has done more of the same, talking about adding a new pitch. Specifically, he mentioned bringing the curveball back to his arsenal in a recent interview with Jays reporters. The 22-year-old said that he “would love something that moves glove side.” So, what would this curveball look like for Yesavage? Given the uniqueness of his release point, it’s difficult to imagine how exactly a curve would look shape-wise, but a key to it being an effective pitch for Yesavage will be depth and movement to the glove side. Yesavage’s delivery allows him to be very behind the baseball when he throws his fastball, leading to the fifth highest active spin for four-seamers in 2025. This, however, creates an issue when he’s throwing his breaking balls, as not having cut-ride characteristics makes it difficult for Yesavage to supinate and get the glove side movement that pitchers like Justin Verlander and Nick Pivetta do. Both are high arm angle pitchers with high release points. Verlander and Pivetta were the only two pitchers in 2025 with an average release height of at least 6.8 feet that threw at least 100 curveballs at that release height, but Yesavage would find it difficult to replicate the shape of their breaking balls due to how efficient his four-seamer is. Verlander and Pivetta both have curveballs with at least 7 inches of glove side movement as well as over -12 inches of induced vertical break, which is a different beast compared to Yesavage's college curveball shape. There is a pitcher who has a similar profile to Yesavage, with a curveball that might be more similar to one Yesavage should be able to throw, and that is Bradley Blalock, recently traded from the Rockies to the Marlins. Another north-south pitcher with a high arm angle, Blalock has seen tough results due to pitching in Colorado. Yet, similar to Yesavage, he has > 99% active spin on his four-seamer, making it more difficult to supinate and get significant glove-side break. Blalock’s shapes were depressed by pitching in Coors, but on the road, he was able to get 1.4 inches of glove side movement and -11.3 inches of vertical break in 2025. Similar to Yesavage's in college, Blalock’s curveball sat in the low 80s as well. It’s weird looking at a pitcher with a 9.31 ERA and 7.31 FIP as someone Yesavage should replicate, but given the limitations of Yesavage's delivery, it’s difficult to find a shape that would work for him without changing what he’s best at. Here’s how his movement profile will look with a curveball similar to Blalock’s: Adding a curveball with this shape will help Yesavage perform much better against right-handed hitters. Although his slider and splitter were both effective, he performed much better against lefties than righties in 2025, with a 20.0 K-BB% against lefties compared to just a 7.4 K-BB% against same-handed hitters. A curveball that moves even slightly to the glove side will prevent hitters from knowing that all his pitches move to the arm side, and it should add an extra split-second to their decision-making process. Although Yesavage's funky delivery should help suppress familiarity, adding a fourth solid pitch will also make third time through the order penalties less severe and give him more options in pitch sequencing. The curveball is something that Yesavage has been tinkering with for years, however, and even if he can get its shape to a point where it will enhance his arsenal, he’ll still have to learn how to command it and get a feel for it. If he’s able to do that successfully, he'll have added another weapon to a devastating arsenal. View full article
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Trey Yesavage took the world by storm in 2025 with his high release point that led to a high rising fastball and a devastating splitter to pair alongside it. His third pitch is a harder gyro slider that sits in between the velo of his fastball and splitter, which forces hitters to guess when a pitch will be lower in the zone. The quirk of Yesavage’s arsenal is that none of his pitches break to the glove side, largely due to his release point and delivery, which make him such a nightmare for hitters to face. That does raise a concern, however, as if hitters know which direction his pitches are always going to move, will they figure him out faster than a pitcher with a more traditional four-pitch mix with pitches that break in both directions? And even if Yesavage remains effective with his current style of pitching, will he be able to stave off the three times through the order effect with just three pitches, or will he be able to get outs when one of his pitches isn’t 'on' on a certain day? Will he be able to maintain effectiveness over 30-ish starts, when division rivals are likely to see him multiple times? Graphic via @TJStats Meet the ‘new’ pitch, which is really an old pitch. Yesavage threw a low-80s 12-6 curveball in college, but since his three main pitches were so polished, it was a clear fourth pitch for him. Shape-wise, the curveball had little depth, with -7 inches of induced vertical break, and once again broke to the arm side. Baseball America gave the pitch a 45 FV grade, and with his limited usage of it in college, Yesavage wasn’t able to get a good enough feel for it to throw it in professional baseball. However, this didn’t mean that he completely left the curveball to rot. In August 2024, Mitch Bannon (now the Blue Jays beat reporter for The Athletic) reported that Yesavage was tinkering with a cutter and a curveball that he wanted to add prior to the 2025 season. This offseason, Yesavage has done more of the same, talking about adding a new pitch. Specifically, he mentioned bringing the curveball back to his arsenal in a recent interview with Jays reporters. The 22-year-old said that he “would love something that moves glove side.” So, what would this curveball look like for Yesavage? Given the uniqueness of his release point, it’s difficult to imagine how exactly a curve would look shape-wise, but a key to it being an effective pitch for Yesavage will be depth and movement to the glove side. Yesavage’s delivery allows him to be very behind the baseball when he throws his fastball, leading to the fifth highest active spin for four-seamers in 2025. This, however, creates an issue when he’s throwing his breaking balls, as not having cut-ride characteristics makes it difficult for Yesavage to supinate and get the glove side movement that pitchers like Justin Verlander and Nick Pivetta do. Both are high arm angle pitchers with high release points. Verlander and Pivetta were the only two pitchers in 2025 with an average release height of at least 6.8 feet that threw at least 100 curveballs at that release height, but Yesavage would find it difficult to replicate the shape of their breaking balls due to how efficient his four-seamer is. Verlander and Pivetta both have curveballs with at least 7 inches of glove side movement as well as over -12 inches of induced vertical break, which is a different beast compared to Yesavage's college curveball shape. There is a pitcher who has a similar profile to Yesavage, with a curveball that might be more similar to one Yesavage should be able to throw, and that is Bradley Blalock, recently traded from the Rockies to the Marlins. Another north-south pitcher with a high arm angle, Blalock has seen tough results due to pitching in Colorado. Yet, similar to Yesavage, he has > 99% active spin on his four-seamer, making it more difficult to supinate and get significant glove-side break. Blalock’s shapes were depressed by pitching in Coors, but on the road, he was able to get 1.4 inches of glove side movement and -11.3 inches of vertical break in 2025. Similar to Yesavage's in college, Blalock’s curveball sat in the low 80s as well. It’s weird looking at a pitcher with a 9.31 ERA and 7.31 FIP as someone Yesavage should replicate, but given the limitations of Yesavage's delivery, it’s difficult to find a shape that would work for him without changing what he’s best at. Here’s how his movement profile will look with a curveball similar to Blalock’s: Adding a curveball with this shape will help Yesavage perform much better against right-handed hitters. Although his slider and splitter were both effective, he performed much better against lefties than righties in 2025, with a 20.0 K-BB% against lefties compared to just a 7.4 K-BB% against same-handed hitters. A curveball that moves even slightly to the glove side will prevent hitters from knowing that all his pitches move to the arm side, and it should add an extra split-second to their decision-making process. Although Yesavage's funky delivery should help suppress familiarity, adding a fourth solid pitch will also make third time through the order penalties less severe and give him more options in pitch sequencing. The curveball is something that Yesavage has been tinkering with for years, however, and even if he can get its shape to a point where it will enhance his arsenal, he’ll still have to learn how to command it and get a feel for it. If he’s able to do that successfully, he'll have added another weapon to a devastating arsenal.
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Josh Kasevich was seemingly the next man up at the end of the 2024 MiLB season. He capped off a strong campaign with a 120 wRC+ in 41 games and 173 plate appearances at Triple A, showing the strong contact skills that he was known for while playing solid defense around the diamond. Although there were a few infielders ahead of him on the depth chart, especially after the trade for Andrés Giménez, Kasevich was seen as an MLB-ready prospect who was just knocking on the doors for a major league spot and a top-10 Jays Centre prospect. That went out the window early in spring training 2025. Although Kasevich appeared in a handful of games, he had a stress reaction in his back that made him miss the majority of the MiLB season. Kasevich was able to return to game action in May before aggravating his wrist and going down for another few months. When he did return to Buffalo, he did not perform well. In 29 games, he slashed just .173/.272/.184 for a 34 wRC+. In the Arizona Fall League, he also struggled in a high-offense environment, producing a .419 OBP but not getting a single extra-base hit. In that time, Ernie Clement established himself as what many hoped Kasevich would turn out to be: an elite defender at second and third base with elite contact skills. Although Bo Bichette has not re-signed with the Jays yet, they still have made some significant additions that may prevent Kasevich from making his MLB debut in 2026, with the addition of Kazuma Okamoto, an infielder who mans the corners but also adds another talented player ahead of Kasevich on the depth charts. Here are depth charts for the Blue Jays in 2026 at Kasevich’s best positions: 2B 3B SS Andrés Giménez Addison Barger Bo Bichette* Ernie Clement Kazuma Okamoto Andrés Giménez Davis Schneider Ernie Clement Ernie Clement Leo Jiménez Josh Kasevich Leo Jiménez (Out of Options) Josh Kasevich Note: Bo Bichette has not signed with a team yet and is included in case he signs with the Blue Jays before spring training. Bichette and Giménez may also swap positions if Bichette re-signs. Bichette has not signed with a team yet, and I have included him in case he does sign with the Jays before spring training starts. Bichette and Giménez may also swap positions if he does re-sign with the Blue Jays. As you can see, not only is Kasevich blocked at multiple key positions, but also, the players above him all share the same-handedness with him. There are a few factors that may allow for some playing time to creep in, however. If Bichette does not return to the Blue Jays, that allows Kasevich to bump up a spot on the depth charts. Leo Jiménez is Kasevich’s main competition for the “third” shortstop role on the team, and despite having an injury-plagued 2025 as well, with a poor showing in a small cup of coffee in the majors, Jiménez has also had a stretch in the majors with average offensive production. However, he is out of options, and as a result, he will need to be DFA’d or traded if he does not make the Opening Day roster. Another wrinkle is Davis Schneider’s playing time after the Jays signed Kazuma Okamoto. The Jays have described Okamoto as a super-utility player, according to Bob Nightengale, and although he mainly played the hot corner in Japan, he also gained outfield experience with the Yomiuri Giants. This addition could greatly reduce Schneider’s playing time, and the Jays may want to turn to a more defensively capable 13th man to play the infield instead of Schneider. Kasevich was described as the best defensive infielder in the Blue Jays' minor league system by Baseball America in 2025. One surprise that happened earlier in the offseason was the Jays' decision not to protect Kasevich before the Rule 5 Draft by adding him to the 40-man roster. Typically, defensively capable players are highly sought after by rebuilding teams in the Rule 5. Yet, Kasevich's offensive struggles and injuries prevented him from getting selected. This means that he will have all his options available when he does come up, which gives him time to rebuild his value as one of the Jays’ top prospects. However, not being added to the 40-man roster will also make it more difficult for him to get called up, unless significant injuries or trades clear space for him. So, he’ll face an uphill battle in a fight for playing time, especially if the Jays sign one of the remaining star position players on the market, Kyle Tucker or Bichette. Still, this year could be the one in which Kasevich breaks the major league roster and produces. As a high-contact, versatile infielder, he’ll fit right into the Blue Jays lineup and core. View full article
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Josh Kasevich was seemingly the next man up at the end of the 2024 MiLB season. He capped off a strong campaign with a 120 wRC+ in 41 games and 173 plate appearances at Triple A, showing the strong contact skills that he was known for while playing solid defense around the diamond. Although there were a few infielders ahead of him on the depth chart, especially after the trade for Andrés Giménez, Kasevich was seen as an MLB-ready prospect who was just knocking on the doors for a major league spot and a top-10 Jays Centre prospect. That went out the window early in spring training 2025. Although Kasevich appeared in a handful of games, he had a stress reaction in his back that made him miss the majority of the MiLB season. Kasevich was able to return to game action in May before aggravating his wrist and going down for another few months. When he did return to Buffalo, he did not perform well. In 29 games, he slashed just .173/.272/.184 for a 34 wRC+. In the Arizona Fall League, he also struggled in a high-offense environment, producing a .419 OBP but not getting a single extra-base hit. In that time, Ernie Clement established himself as what many hoped Kasevich would turn out to be: an elite defender at second and third base with elite contact skills. Although Bo Bichette has not re-signed with the Jays yet, they still have made some significant additions that may prevent Kasevich from making his MLB debut in 2026, with the addition of Kazuma Okamoto, an infielder who mans the corners but also adds another talented player ahead of Kasevich on the depth charts. Here are depth charts for the Blue Jays in 2026 at Kasevich’s best positions: 2B 3B SS Andrés Giménez Addison Barger Bo Bichette* Ernie Clement Kazuma Okamoto Andrés Giménez Davis Schneider Ernie Clement Ernie Clement Leo Jiménez Josh Kasevich Leo Jiménez (Out of Options) Josh Kasevich Note: Bo Bichette has not signed with a team yet and is included in case he signs with the Blue Jays before spring training. Bichette and Giménez may also swap positions if Bichette re-signs. Bichette has not signed with a team yet, and I have included him in case he does sign with the Jays before spring training starts. Bichette and Giménez may also swap positions if he does re-sign with the Blue Jays. As you can see, not only is Kasevich blocked at multiple key positions, but also, the players above him all share the same-handedness with him. There are a few factors that may allow for some playing time to creep in, however. If Bichette does not return to the Blue Jays, that allows Kasevich to bump up a spot on the depth charts. Leo Jiménez is Kasevich’s main competition for the “third” shortstop role on the team, and despite having an injury-plagued 2025 as well, with a poor showing in a small cup of coffee in the majors, Jiménez has also had a stretch in the majors with average offensive production. However, he is out of options, and as a result, he will need to be DFA’d or traded if he does not make the Opening Day roster. Another wrinkle is Davis Schneider’s playing time after the Jays signed Kazuma Okamoto. The Jays have described Okamoto as a super-utility player, according to Bob Nightengale, and although he mainly played the hot corner in Japan, he also gained outfield experience with the Yomiuri Giants. This addition could greatly reduce Schneider’s playing time, and the Jays may want to turn to a more defensively capable 13th man to play the infield instead of Schneider. Kasevich was described as the best defensive infielder in the Blue Jays' minor league system by Baseball America in 2025. One surprise that happened earlier in the offseason was the Jays' decision not to protect Kasevich before the Rule 5 Draft by adding him to the 40-man roster. Typically, defensively capable players are highly sought after by rebuilding teams in the Rule 5. Yet, Kasevich's offensive struggles and injuries prevented him from getting selected. This means that he will have all his options available when he does come up, which gives him time to rebuild his value as one of the Jays’ top prospects. However, not being added to the 40-man roster will also make it more difficult for him to get called up, unless significant injuries or trades clear space for him. So, he’ll face an uphill battle in a fight for playing time, especially if the Jays sign one of the remaining star position players on the market, Kyle Tucker or Bichette. Still, this year could be the one in which Kasevich breaks the major league roster and produces. As a high-contact, versatile infielder, he’ll fit right into the Blue Jays lineup and core.
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The Toronto Blue Jays have made a couple of surprising moves recently, including the very recent DFA of Yariel Rodríguez. This led to some speculation that they may select a player in today's Rule 5 draft. Once again, the Jays surprised people, not only by making a selection, but because they selected a pitcher with only 14 2/3 IP in his minor league career. Spencer Miles was a fourth-round pick for the San Francisco Giants in 2022, signing for a $347,500 bonus. He pitched 7 1/3 innings in 2022 before being sidelined for all of 2023. He once again threw 7 1/3 innings in 2024 before Tommy John surgery shelved him for all of 2025. However, Miles did make a return to pitching in the Arizona Fall League this October. He showcased an impressive four-pitch mix with strong results in 8 2/3 IP, striking out over 30% of the batters he faced and walking only 2.7%. Graphic via @TJStats Although Miles has a starter's arsenal, with a fastball, changeup, cutter and curveball, the Jays will definitely use him as a low-leverage reliever if he remains on the roster, as he has never pitched more than 10 innings in a professional season. This is the second consecutive starting pitching prospect the Jays have selected in the Rule 5 draft that recently underwent Tommy John surgery. Angel Bastardo, last year's selection, will still need to be rostered on the 26-man for at least 90 continuous days in 2026, barring another injury. He was not able to burn off his Rule 5 clock in 2025. The Jays can also breathe a sigh of relief, as their unprotected prospects, such as Yohendrick Pinango (Jays Centre's No. 7 prospect), Yondrei Rojas, and Victor Arias (Jays Centre's No. 8 prospect), were all left unselected. Ricky Tiedemann, Jays Centre's No. 5 prospect, was the only Rule 5-eligible player the team protected ahead of the draft. View full article
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Blue Jays Select Right-Hander Spencer Miles in Rule 5 Draft
Simon Li posted an article in Minor Leagues
The Toronto Blue Jays have made a couple of surprising moves recently, including the very recent DFA of Yariel Rodríguez. This led to some speculation that they may select a player in today's Rule 5 draft. Once again, the Jays surprised people, not only by making a selection, but because they selected a pitcher with only 14 2/3 IP in his minor league career. Spencer Miles was a fourth-round pick for the San Francisco Giants in 2022, signing for a $347,500 bonus. He pitched 7 1/3 innings in 2022 before being sidelined for all of 2023. He once again threw 7 1/3 innings in 2024 before Tommy John surgery shelved him for all of 2025. However, Miles did make a return to pitching in the Arizona Fall League this October. He showcased an impressive four-pitch mix with strong results in 8 2/3 IP, striking out over 30% of the batters he faced and walking only 2.7%. Graphic via @TJStats Although Miles has a starter's arsenal, with a fastball, changeup, cutter and curveball, the Jays will definitely use him as a low-leverage reliever if he remains on the roster, as he has never pitched more than 10 innings in a professional season. This is the second consecutive starting pitching prospect the Jays have selected in the Rule 5 draft that recently underwent Tommy John surgery. Angel Bastardo, last year's selection, will still need to be rostered on the 26-man for at least 90 continuous days in 2026, barring another injury. He was not able to burn off his Rule 5 clock in 2025. The Jays can also breathe a sigh of relief, as their unprotected prospects, such as Yohendrick Pinango (Jays Centre's No. 7 prospect), Yondrei Rojas, and Victor Arias (Jays Centre's No. 8 prospect), were all left unselected. Ricky Tiedemann, Jays Centre's No. 5 prospect, was the only Rule 5-eligible player the team protected ahead of the draft.- 2 comments
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The 2024 season was the last in which Shane Farrell was the Blue Jays’ scouting director, but the 2024 draft class was the second in a row from which the draftees have already started to show significant dividends. Although it is still early in all of these prospects’ professional careers, the 2025 season was able to show us some trends for Toronto’s early-round picks. This article was inspired by Cody Christie, who wrote a great piece about the Twins’ 2024 Draft Class on our sister site, Twins Daily. RHP Trey Yesavage (1st Round, 20th overall) The 2024 first-rounder for the Blue Jays really does not need to be talked about, as the 22-year-old burst onto the world stage with dominant performances in the 2025 playoffs. Yesavage was one of the more MLB-ready pitchers drafted in the first round, but his meteoric rise from Single-A Dunedin to starting Game 1 of the World Series is still extremely astonishing. He’s now the runaway favourite for the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year. Stock: To the Moon RHP Khal Stephen (2nd Round, 59th overall) - Traded to Guardians The Jays’ 2024 second-rounder was overshadowed by some big names in the system, but the big righty was performing as much as Yesavage at almost every step of the way. He, too, started off in Single-A, making it all the way to Double-A before getting shelved with a shoulder impingement. He eventually was traded for 2020 AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber, but has still been in consideration for the bottom end of top 100 prospect lists. For the 2025 season, Stephen pitched just over 100 innings with a 2.53 ERA and a 2.60 FIP. Stock: Up LHP Johnny King (3rd Round, 95th overall) Johnny King was drafted out of high school as a raw 17-year-old and did not pitch until the start of the Florida Complex League. He adjusted rather quickly, dominating rookie ball hitters, striking out 41.8% of the hitters he faced. He was then promoted to Single-A Dunedin, where he continued his strikeout dominance, K-ing 38.1% of A-ball hitters, although his walk rate also jumped as he struggled to repeat his delivery. King definitely proved that his stuff was immaculate, and although he still needs to figure out his command and needs to develop a third pitch, he has also earned consideration to be a top-100 prospect. Stock: Way Up 3B/1B Sean Keys (4th Round, 125th overall) Keys was drafted out of Bucknell and immediately produced in 22 G and 98 PA in Single-A Dunedin in 2024. He showed off his strong plate discipline, walking over 13% of the time, leading to a 134 wRC+. He earned his promotion to High-A Vancouver, where he quietly produced a strong season, showing off his strengths well. Keys continued to get on base, producing a .365 OBP carried by a 16.3% walk rate. He also showed off some real power, with 19 homers, 22 doubles and a triple to give him a .191 ISO. He got a little unlucky in terms of BABIP, as did many of the hitters in Vancouver. He’s been looked at as a potential breakout candidate for 2026. Stock: Up OF Nick Mitchell (4th Round, 136th overall) - Traded to Guardians Nick Mitchell was the compensation pick for Matt Chapman, and the outfielder performed well in 2024 and was subsequently traded to the Guardians with Spencer Horwitz for Andrés Giménez and Nick Sandlin. I will not comment on his stock, given that he was not in the Jays organization at all this past season, but he performed well with the Guardians, posting a 122 wRC+ across Single and High-A. RHP Jackson Wentworth (5th Round, 158th overall) It was a mixed bag for Jackson Wentworth, who had stretches of absolute dominance and also periods where he really struggled. The righty out of Kansas State made 26 starts with a slightly above-average FIP, but was overshadowed by many of his teammates who were able to make the jump to Double-A or who dominated coming out of Single-A. Still, Wentworth only started 16 games in college, so showing the capability to go out there and pitch every six days, whilst taking on the challenge of going straight to High-A out of college, was still not an easy feat. His season didn’t do too much to hurt his stock, but also did not let him establish himself as one of the better pitching prospects for the Jays. Stock: Neither Up nor Down While the top picks from the Jays' 2024 draft class have all performed well, quite a few of their later-round picks are trending in the right direction as well. Later-round picks or undrafted free agents who were able to raise their stocks include: RHP Austin Cates (7th Round, 217th pick) Austin Cates has been viewed as a breakout candidate since his velo started to tick up late in the season and he pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA and FIP in five starts for Vancouver. OF Eddie Micheletti Jr. (8th Round, 247th pick) Eddie Micheletti Jr. was the best qualified hitter for the Vancouver Canadians, and although his defensive fit is questionable, he has shown strong power and plate discipline from the left-hand side. RHP Troy Guthrie (11th round, 337th overall) Trot Guthrie was the best pitcher for the championship-winning FCL Jays in the complex league, showing advanced command for a teenager. OF/2B J.R. Freethy (14th Round, 427th overall) Although he had an injury mid-way through the season, J.R. Freethy’s on-base ability earned him a promotion to Double-A, and he was also able to get a highlight piece from me. LHP Javen Coleman (UDFA) Javen Coleman was a strikeout machine for Dunedin and Vancouver, as the lefty reliever struck out over 38% of the batters he faced. He also threw an immaculate inning early in the season and almost had another on August 15, falling one strike short. The Blue Jays are beginning to develop a penchant for lefty arms, and Coleman is another example of such. Although most of these players may not have the impact that Trey Yesavage has already had, this season was another step in the right direction for the Jays’ drafting and development. After struggling to find success in the early parts of Shapiro and Atkins’ term with the Blue Jays, their stock is finally starting to rise in the minor leagues. View full article
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The 2024 season was the last in which Shane Farrell was the Blue Jays’ scouting director, but the 2024 draft class was the second in a row from which the draftees have already started to show significant dividends. Although it is still early in all of these prospects’ professional careers, the 2025 season was able to show us some trends for Toronto’s early-round picks. This article was inspired by Cody Christie, who wrote a great piece about the Twins’ 2024 Draft Class on our sister site, Twins Daily. RHP Trey Yesavage (1st Round, 20th overall) The 2024 first-rounder for the Blue Jays really does not need to be talked about, as the 22-year-old burst onto the world stage with dominant performances in the 2025 playoffs. Yesavage was one of the more MLB-ready pitchers drafted in the first round, but his meteoric rise from Single-A Dunedin to starting Game 1 of the World Series is still extremely astonishing. He’s now the runaway favourite for the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year. Stock: To the Moon RHP Khal Stephen (2nd Round, 59th overall) - Traded to Guardians The Jays’ 2024 second-rounder was overshadowed by some big names in the system, but the big righty was performing as much as Yesavage at almost every step of the way. He, too, started off in Single-A, making it all the way to Double-A before getting shelved with a shoulder impingement. He eventually was traded for 2020 AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber, but has still been in consideration for the bottom end of top 100 prospect lists. For the 2025 season, Stephen pitched just over 100 innings with a 2.53 ERA and a 2.60 FIP. Stock: Up LHP Johnny King (3rd Round, 95th overall) Johnny King was drafted out of high school as a raw 17-year-old and did not pitch until the start of the Florida Complex League. He adjusted rather quickly, dominating rookie ball hitters, striking out 41.8% of the hitters he faced. He was then promoted to Single-A Dunedin, where he continued his strikeout dominance, K-ing 38.1% of A-ball hitters, although his walk rate also jumped as he struggled to repeat his delivery. King definitely proved that his stuff was immaculate, and although he still needs to figure out his command and needs to develop a third pitch, he has also earned consideration to be a top-100 prospect. Stock: Way Up 3B/1B Sean Keys (4th Round, 125th overall) Keys was drafted out of Bucknell and immediately produced in 22 G and 98 PA in Single-A Dunedin in 2024. He showed off his strong plate discipline, walking over 13% of the time, leading to a 134 wRC+. He earned his promotion to High-A Vancouver, where he quietly produced a strong season, showing off his strengths well. Keys continued to get on base, producing a .365 OBP carried by a 16.3% walk rate. He also showed off some real power, with 19 homers, 22 doubles and a triple to give him a .191 ISO. He got a little unlucky in terms of BABIP, as did many of the hitters in Vancouver. He’s been looked at as a potential breakout candidate for 2026. Stock: Up OF Nick Mitchell (4th Round, 136th overall) - Traded to Guardians Nick Mitchell was the compensation pick for Matt Chapman, and the outfielder performed well in 2024 and was subsequently traded to the Guardians with Spencer Horwitz for Andrés Giménez and Nick Sandlin. I will not comment on his stock, given that he was not in the Jays organization at all this past season, but he performed well with the Guardians, posting a 122 wRC+ across Single and High-A. RHP Jackson Wentworth (5th Round, 158th overall) It was a mixed bag for Jackson Wentworth, who had stretches of absolute dominance and also periods where he really struggled. The righty out of Kansas State made 26 starts with a slightly above-average FIP, but was overshadowed by many of his teammates who were able to make the jump to Double-A or who dominated coming out of Single-A. Still, Wentworth only started 16 games in college, so showing the capability to go out there and pitch every six days, whilst taking on the challenge of going straight to High-A out of college, was still not an easy feat. His season didn’t do too much to hurt his stock, but also did not let him establish himself as one of the better pitching prospects for the Jays. Stock: Neither Up nor Down While the top picks from the Jays' 2024 draft class have all performed well, quite a few of their later-round picks are trending in the right direction as well. Later-round picks or undrafted free agents who were able to raise their stocks include: RHP Austin Cates (7th Round, 217th pick) Austin Cates has been viewed as a breakout candidate since his velo started to tick up late in the season and he pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA and FIP in five starts for Vancouver. OF Eddie Micheletti Jr. (8th Round, 247th pick) Eddie Micheletti Jr. was the best qualified hitter for the Vancouver Canadians, and although his defensive fit is questionable, he has shown strong power and plate discipline from the left-hand side. RHP Troy Guthrie (11th round, 337th overall) Trot Guthrie was the best pitcher for the championship-winning FCL Jays in the complex league, showing advanced command for a teenager. OF/2B J.R. Freethy (14th Round, 427th overall) Although he had an injury mid-way through the season, J.R. Freethy’s on-base ability earned him a promotion to Double-A, and he was also able to get a highlight piece from me. LHP Javen Coleman (UDFA) Javen Coleman was a strikeout machine for Dunedin and Vancouver, as the lefty reliever struck out over 38% of the batters he faced. He also threw an immaculate inning early in the season and almost had another on August 15, falling one strike short. The Blue Jays are beginning to develop a penchant for lefty arms, and Coleman is another example of such. Although most of these players may not have the impact that Trey Yesavage has already had, this season was another step in the right direction for the Jays’ drafting and development. After struggling to find success in the early parts of Shapiro and Atkins’ term with the Blue Jays, their stock is finally starting to rise in the minor leagues.
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Munetaka Murakami is a powerhouse slugger who has broken homer records in a dead-ball era and was posted by his NPB team, the Tokyo Yakult Swallows, and will have 45 days to sign with an MLB team. Murakami will be 26 years old in the 2026 season, which makes it more likely he will get a longer-term deal, as he has not yet reached his physical prime. Murakami’s calling card is obvious; he absolutely demolishes baseballs. In seven NPB seasons, he hit 246 homers, including a shortened 2025 season where he was shelved early with an oblique injury in March. Murakami’s best season came in 2022, when he broke the record for most home runs by a Japanese-born player with 56, posting a 225 wRC+. He walked over 19% of the time and struck out a little over 20% of the time; however, it was below average, only within the 25th percentile, as NPB hitters typically strike out much less. After that season, a pressure-filled WBC tournament got the better of Murakami, where he notably struggled to live up to his vaunted 2022 season, which carried over into the next two seasons. The prodigious slugger’s low water mark for ISO (Isolated Power) was .228 in 2024, which was a “down” year for him as he “only” had a 156 wRC+. His strikeout rate ballooned from during that stretch to nearly 30%. On a rate basis, when healthy, Murakami was remarkably similar in 2025, but his strikeout rate continued to hover above 28% which was the bottom third percentile. Although he strikes out a ton, his plate discipline is firm, with an above-average chase rate and a 99th percentile walk rate. His strengths are glaring, but so are his weaknesses. As we saw, his strikeout rate was one of the worst in NPB, and that is more concerning given that he’s coming to MLB, where pitchers throw harder and have more advanced stuff overall. Murakami also struggled heavily with “velocity,” as James Schiano noted, “Murakami had a .095 batting average against pitches 93 MPH or harder last season in NPB.” Of course, that’s still a small sample, as NPB doesn't have many pitchers who throw that hard, but adding in Murakami’s contact issues and strikeout concerns will give teams pause in how they evaluate his ability to hit MLB pitchers, where the average fastball velocity clears 94 mph. His contact issues cannot be overblown either, as his contact rate of 63.9% and Swinging Strike Rate of 17.3% would be the worst among all qualified hitters in MLB. In addition to the concerns on the offensive end, Murakami also has significant concerns on the defensive end. He was a third baseman with the Swallows, but had a -8.4 Total Zone Rating (position adjusted), which was significantly below average. If the Jays were to sign him, his positional fit would immediately come into question, as the Blue Jays value defense quite highly, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. also occupies first base for the next 13 years. George Springer and Anthony Santander are also more likely to fill the designated hitter role in 2026, which means that Murakami will be forced to play mostly at third base. The Jays will do their due diligence and check in on Murakami as a free-agent target. Still, concerns about his offensive game will be a significant problem for a team trying to compete for a World Series title, as they may not have the time to let him figure out major league pitching. Although he does have 70 grade power that most teams would love, the margins of error are very slim for him, as evidenced by Joey Gallo, who went from a solid above-average hitter to out of the league in just a few seasons. Given the youth and productivity in NPB, Murakami will most likely seek a longer-term contract, which may also be harder for the Jays to swallow in terms of risk mitigation. ZIPS projects Murakami to have a 126 wRC+ with a 3.4 fWAR, but the range of outcomes is going to be super-high, depending on whether he can adjust to velocity and if his strikeout rate can be managed. With the poor defensive fit, however, the Jays may look to other free-agent options to fill a defensive need. Still, they also have the defensive flexibility to hide Murakami’s shortcomings. The Blue Jays would love an injection of power, and the potential for Murakami's massive power is intriguing; however, the concerns may outweigh the benefits for the Jays' front office. The Jays prioritize defensive flexibility and strong bat-to-ball skills, which Murakami cannot fit into, but which may, in turn, allow them to handle Murakami’s shortcomings. The ultimate question is whether Murakami’s youth and potential will spark a bidding war or whether the Jays can get him on a reasonable contract if they choose to pursue him, thereby mitigating the risk. View full article
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Munetaka Murakami is a powerhouse slugger who has broken homer records in a dead-ball era and was posted by his NPB team, the Tokyo Yakult Swallows, and will have 45 days to sign with an MLB team. Murakami will be 26 years old in the 2026 season, which makes it more likely he will get a longer-term deal, as he has not yet reached his physical prime. Murakami’s calling card is obvious; he absolutely demolishes baseballs. In seven NPB seasons, he hit 246 homers, including a shortened 2025 season where he was shelved early with an oblique injury in March. Murakami’s best season came in 2022, when he broke the record for most home runs by a Japanese-born player with 56, posting a 225 wRC+. He walked over 19% of the time and struck out a little over 20% of the time; however, it was below average, only within the 25th percentile, as NPB hitters typically strike out much less. After that season, a pressure-filled WBC tournament got the better of Murakami, where he notably struggled to live up to his vaunted 2022 season, which carried over into the next two seasons. The prodigious slugger’s low water mark for ISO (Isolated Power) was .228 in 2024, which was a “down” year for him as he “only” had a 156 wRC+. His strikeout rate ballooned from during that stretch to nearly 30%. On a rate basis, when healthy, Murakami was remarkably similar in 2025, but his strikeout rate continued to hover above 28% which was the bottom third percentile. Although he strikes out a ton, his plate discipline is firm, with an above-average chase rate and a 99th percentile walk rate. His strengths are glaring, but so are his weaknesses. As we saw, his strikeout rate was one of the worst in NPB, and that is more concerning given that he’s coming to MLB, where pitchers throw harder and have more advanced stuff overall. Murakami also struggled heavily with “velocity,” as James Schiano noted, “Murakami had a .095 batting average against pitches 93 MPH or harder last season in NPB.” Of course, that’s still a small sample, as NPB doesn't have many pitchers who throw that hard, but adding in Murakami’s contact issues and strikeout concerns will give teams pause in how they evaluate his ability to hit MLB pitchers, where the average fastball velocity clears 94 mph. His contact issues cannot be overblown either, as his contact rate of 63.9% and Swinging Strike Rate of 17.3% would be the worst among all qualified hitters in MLB. In addition to the concerns on the offensive end, Murakami also has significant concerns on the defensive end. He was a third baseman with the Swallows, but had a -8.4 Total Zone Rating (position adjusted), which was significantly below average. If the Jays were to sign him, his positional fit would immediately come into question, as the Blue Jays value defense quite highly, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. also occupies first base for the next 13 years. George Springer and Anthony Santander are also more likely to fill the designated hitter role in 2026, which means that Murakami will be forced to play mostly at third base. The Jays will do their due diligence and check in on Murakami as a free-agent target. Still, concerns about his offensive game will be a significant problem for a team trying to compete for a World Series title, as they may not have the time to let him figure out major league pitching. Although he does have 70 grade power that most teams would love, the margins of error are very slim for him, as evidenced by Joey Gallo, who went from a solid above-average hitter to out of the league in just a few seasons. Given the youth and productivity in NPB, Murakami will most likely seek a longer-term contract, which may also be harder for the Jays to swallow in terms of risk mitigation. ZIPS projects Murakami to have a 126 wRC+ with a 3.4 fWAR, but the range of outcomes is going to be super-high, depending on whether he can adjust to velocity and if his strikeout rate can be managed. With the poor defensive fit, however, the Jays may look to other free-agent options to fill a defensive need. Still, they also have the defensive flexibility to hide Murakami’s shortcomings. The Blue Jays would love an injection of power, and the potential for Murakami's massive power is intriguing; however, the concerns may outweigh the benefits for the Jays' front office. The Jays prioritize defensive flexibility and strong bat-to-ball skills, which Murakami cannot fit into, but which may, in turn, allow them to handle Murakami’s shortcomings. The ultimate question is whether Murakami’s youth and potential will spark a bidding war or whether the Jays can get him on a reasonable contract if they choose to pursue him, thereby mitigating the risk.
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Alejandro Kirk was a bat-first player when he arrived in the big leagues. The diminutive but stocky catcher soared through the minors off the strength of his bat, and at just 21 years old, debuted in the big leagues in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. He produced a 165 wRC+ in 25 plate appearances but had a -1.2 FanGraphs Def with a -2 Fielding Run Value. In 2021, Kirk dealt with a hip flexor strain early in the season that shortened his year, but he was still able to catch 338 innings and remained below average as a framer and backstop in general, with -3 Defensive Runs Saved and a -3 Fielding Run Value. He still was an above-average hitter during the 60 games he played, with a 106 wRC+, but at this point in his career, Kirk would be known as a player who only played catcher because he couldn’t play anywhere else. That would change in 2022, when Kirk had his breakout season, winning his first Silver Slugger and making his first All-Star appearance, hitting .285/.372/.415 for a 129 wRC+. The offensive numbers were spectacular and gaudy, but the most interesting thing about his season was not that he could hit, as he had already proved that throughout his short professional career up to that point, but that his defense took a massive leap forward. His Fielding Run Value jumped to 11, and he showed above-average abilities in blocking the ball with his athleticism and great positioning. He also became a great framer, with eight framing runs according to Statcast. Although Kirk wasn’t the best fielding catcher in the AL, he established himself in the upper echelons as a defender. The following year, he proved it wasn’t a fluke, almost repeating the same performance defensively in 2023, with a slightly lower fielding run value, although he caught over 100 more innings. The bat, however, took a step back, as he was a slightly below-average hitter. His woes on the hitting end continued in 2024, but his glove continued to trend upwards, as his framing improved again (12 framing runs), and he had a career high four throwing runs, according to Statcast. Although Cal Raleigh won the AL Gold Glove Award at catcher, as well as the Platinum Glove, some metrics pointed to Alejandro Kirk as the better defender that year. Kirk was a better defender according to Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, with 17 to Raleigh’s 14, but DRS preferred Raleigh over Kirk. The metrics being mixed as to who was better made the snub sting a little less, but Kirk should have won the award that year as well. In addition to voting, Rawlings uses a metric known as the SABR Defensive Index for awarding Gold Gloves. According to Rawlings, the SABR Defensive Index combines six different defensive data sources and includes factors such as arm strength & accuracy and range & sure-handedness, along with the number of “excellent” and “poor” fielding plays a fielder makes. For catchers, fielding bunts, blocking balls in the dirt, and stolen bases/caught stealing are included. There is one glaring part of catching that is missing from that list: Framing. Framing is 100% the most important part of a catcher’s defense. The highest number of stolen base attempts on any catcher this season was 89 on Yainer Diaz, which means that on only 89 plays did Diaz’s arm make any sort of direct impact. And sometimes, based on the runner or the pitcher, a catcher actually has zero impact on a base-stealing play. That’s why Statcast uses Caught Stealing Above Average, which translates to Catcher Stealing Runs. The best catcher in 2025 at throwing out runners was Luis Torrens with 12 CS above average. That equates to 8 Catcher Stealing Runs. On the other hand, the catcher who caught the most pitches this season was J.T. Realmuto with 9,714. Around 4,000 of those pitches were caught in the Chase/Waste areas, which are so far from the zone that framing makes minimal impact, and around 1,000 of those pitches were in the heart of the zone. Still, that leaves a few thousand pitches in the shadow of the zone. Not only do catchers need to help pitchers turn pitches one or two inches out of the zone into strikes, but they also help to ensure that pitches just one or two inches inside the zone are called strikes as well. One strike or ball call can make the difference between an 0-1 count or a 1-0 count, and each count has an assigned run value. Baseball Savant's Catcher Framing Runs converts strikes into runs on a .125 run/strike basis, taking park and pitcher adjustments into account. The best catcher in all of baseball in this metric was Patrick Bailey, who had a 47.7 shadow strike percentage, which converted to 25 Catcher Framing Runs. Kirk lagged behind with a 47.1 shadow strike percent, which made for “only” 16 Catcher Framing Runs. However, that shows the difference in the importance of each role a catcher plays. The best guy at throwing out runners only contributed half as many runs as the second-best framer in baseball. Defensive metrics are not a perfect science and are still improving every year, but the sheer volume of pitches a catcher receives makes the value of excellent framing outweigh a slightly stronger arm. When the 2025 season concluded, Alejandro Kirk stood at the peak of almost every catching metric: first in the AL in Statcast Catcher Framing Runs with 16 and first in the league in Blocking Runs with five, albeit with zero Throwing Runs. Still, he was easily the second-best catcher in the league in total Fielding Run Value at 22. DRS was lower on Kirk, but he still finished tied for eighth in DRS among catchers with 9, just below Carlos Narvaez among the finalists for the Gold Glove. Although, I’m not a fan of DRS because it uses catcher’s ERA as a component, which dinged Kirk for a -4. Catcher’s ERA is extremely misleading as a statistic, and although I would love to dive into why I think it is a poor metric, I’ve already rambled on long enough. Despite Kirk getting dinged on that front, he still finished ahead of the winner Dillon Dingler, who only had six Defensive Runs Saved. Dingler is an incredible catcher, and being the second or third best catcher in the AL is no small feat, but he was not better than Kirk. He was better at throwing out runners, and his 30% CS rate did dwarf Kirk’s 17%. However, he was a worse blocker by a significant amount and a worse framer by an even bigger amount. Dingler finished with a 12 FRV to Kirk’s 22. The stats were not comparable, and Kirk’s body of work showed why he should have won the award. Unfortunately, flaws within the voting system and the metrics used to determine the winner have now prevented Kirk from winning not one, but two Gold Gloves, and this loss was easily the more egregious of the two. Lastly, human beings are inherently biased. The way that we are brought up, the conventional wisdom of the past and what we consider common sense all play a part in how we view people and evaluate athletes. I have no idea what precisely led to Kirk’s unfortunate Gold Glove snub; it may have been SDI being a flawed metric, but it also may have been the coaches who vote not respecting his ability as a defensive catcher, despite him constantly proving himself as one of the best in the game. Kirk is unconventionally sized as a professional athlete, and the inherent biases of managers and coaches could have given Dingler a leg up in the voting. Even now, with a magnitude of evidence showcasing that one-knee catching is more effective than catching with two knees down, our beloved commentators like Buck Martinez cannot help themselves from sticking with tradition and thinking a worse method is better. What I implore people to do is move past what we think is right and instead look at the empirical evidence and see that this teapot-shaped looking fellow is, in fact, the best defensive catcher in the entire American League, and it isn’t even close. View full article
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Alejandro Kirk was a bat-first player when he arrived in the big leagues. The diminutive but stocky catcher soared through the minors off the strength of his bat, and at just 21 years old, debuted in the big leagues in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. He produced a 165 wRC+ in 25 plate appearances but had a -1.2 FanGraphs Def with a -2 Fielding Run Value. In 2021, Kirk dealt with a hip flexor strain early in the season that shortened his year, but he was still able to catch 338 innings and remained below average as a framer and backstop in general, with -3 Defensive Runs Saved and a -3 Fielding Run Value. He still was an above-average hitter during the 60 games he played, with a 106 wRC+, but at this point in his career, Kirk would be known as a player who only played catcher because he couldn’t play anywhere else. That would change in 2022, when Kirk had his breakout season, winning his first Silver Slugger and making his first All-Star appearance, hitting .285/.372/.415 for a 129 wRC+. The offensive numbers were spectacular and gaudy, but the most interesting thing about his season was not that he could hit, as he had already proved that throughout his short professional career up to that point, but that his defense took a massive leap forward. His Fielding Run Value jumped to 11, and he showed above-average abilities in blocking the ball with his athleticism and great positioning. He also became a great framer, with eight framing runs according to Statcast. Although Kirk wasn’t the best fielding catcher in the AL, he established himself in the upper echelons as a defender. The following year, he proved it wasn’t a fluke, almost repeating the same performance defensively in 2023, with a slightly lower fielding run value, although he caught over 100 more innings. The bat, however, took a step back, as he was a slightly below-average hitter. His woes on the hitting end continued in 2024, but his glove continued to trend upwards, as his framing improved again (12 framing runs), and he had a career high four throwing runs, according to Statcast. Although Cal Raleigh won the AL Gold Glove Award at catcher, as well as the Platinum Glove, some metrics pointed to Alejandro Kirk as the better defender that year. Kirk was a better defender according to Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, with 17 to Raleigh’s 14, but DRS preferred Raleigh over Kirk. The metrics being mixed as to who was better made the snub sting a little less, but Kirk should have won the award that year as well. In addition to voting, Rawlings uses a metric known as the SABR Defensive Index for awarding Gold Gloves. According to Rawlings, the SABR Defensive Index combines six different defensive data sources and includes factors such as arm strength & accuracy and range & sure-handedness, along with the number of “excellent” and “poor” fielding plays a fielder makes. For catchers, fielding bunts, blocking balls in the dirt, and stolen bases/caught stealing are included. There is one glaring part of catching that is missing from that list: Framing. Framing is 100% the most important part of a catcher’s defense. The highest number of stolen base attempts on any catcher this season was 89 on Yainer Diaz, which means that on only 89 plays did Diaz’s arm make any sort of direct impact. And sometimes, based on the runner or the pitcher, a catcher actually has zero impact on a base-stealing play. That’s why Statcast uses Caught Stealing Above Average, which translates to Catcher Stealing Runs. The best catcher in 2025 at throwing out runners was Luis Torrens with 12 CS above average. That equates to 8 Catcher Stealing Runs. On the other hand, the catcher who caught the most pitches this season was J.T. Realmuto with 9,714. Around 4,000 of those pitches were caught in the Chase/Waste areas, which are so far from the zone that framing makes minimal impact, and around 1,000 of those pitches were in the heart of the zone. Still, that leaves a few thousand pitches in the shadow of the zone. Not only do catchers need to help pitchers turn pitches one or two inches out of the zone into strikes, but they also help to ensure that pitches just one or two inches inside the zone are called strikes as well. One strike or ball call can make the difference between an 0-1 count or a 1-0 count, and each count has an assigned run value. Baseball Savant's Catcher Framing Runs converts strikes into runs on a .125 run/strike basis, taking park and pitcher adjustments into account. The best catcher in all of baseball in this metric was Patrick Bailey, who had a 47.7 shadow strike percentage, which converted to 25 Catcher Framing Runs. Kirk lagged behind with a 47.1 shadow strike percent, which made for “only” 16 Catcher Framing Runs. However, that shows the difference in the importance of each role a catcher plays. The best guy at throwing out runners only contributed half as many runs as the second-best framer in baseball. Defensive metrics are not a perfect science and are still improving every year, but the sheer volume of pitches a catcher receives makes the value of excellent framing outweigh a slightly stronger arm. When the 2025 season concluded, Alejandro Kirk stood at the peak of almost every catching metric: first in the AL in Statcast Catcher Framing Runs with 16 and first in the league in Blocking Runs with five, albeit with zero Throwing Runs. Still, he was easily the second-best catcher in the league in total Fielding Run Value at 22. DRS was lower on Kirk, but he still finished tied for eighth in DRS among catchers with 9, just below Carlos Narvaez among the finalists for the Gold Glove. Although, I’m not a fan of DRS because it uses catcher’s ERA as a component, which dinged Kirk for a -4. Catcher’s ERA is extremely misleading as a statistic, and although I would love to dive into why I think it is a poor metric, I’ve already rambled on long enough. Despite Kirk getting dinged on that front, he still finished ahead of the winner Dillon Dingler, who only had six Defensive Runs Saved. Dingler is an incredible catcher, and being the second or third best catcher in the AL is no small feat, but he was not better than Kirk. He was better at throwing out runners, and his 30% CS rate did dwarf Kirk’s 17%. However, he was a worse blocker by a significant amount and a worse framer by an even bigger amount. Dingler finished with a 12 FRV to Kirk’s 22. The stats were not comparable, and Kirk’s body of work showed why he should have won the award. Unfortunately, flaws within the voting system and the metrics used to determine the winner have now prevented Kirk from winning not one, but two Gold Gloves, and this loss was easily the more egregious of the two. Lastly, human beings are inherently biased. The way that we are brought up, the conventional wisdom of the past and what we consider common sense all play a part in how we view people and evaluate athletes. I have no idea what precisely led to Kirk’s unfortunate Gold Glove snub; it may have been SDI being a flawed metric, but it also may have been the coaches who vote not respecting his ability as a defensive catcher, despite him constantly proving himself as one of the best in the game. Kirk is unconventionally sized as a professional athlete, and the inherent biases of managers and coaches could have given Dingler a leg up in the voting. Even now, with a magnitude of evidence showcasing that one-knee catching is more effective than catching with two knees down, our beloved commentators like Buck Martinez cannot help themselves from sticking with tradition and thinking a worse method is better. What I implore people to do is move past what we think is right and instead look at the empirical evidence and see that this teapot-shaped looking fellow is, in fact, the best defensive catcher in the entire American League, and it isn’t even close.
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Reports from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet indicate that Trey Yesavage is being called up to the big leagues. He is expected to be activated on Monday and should provide some additional firepower to the bullpen. The Jays must make a corresponding move when Yesavage is added, and will need to make a decision to remove someone from the 40-man roster to make room. The Blue Jays' bullpen was one of the strengths early in the season, but as the season went on, there have been a few notable meltdowns in the second half of the season. The Jays' bullpen had the 10th-worst WPA since August 1st, and had a below-average ERA. The bullpen additions have not performed up to expectations, and bullpen mainstays like Brendon Little, Jeff Hoffman, and Yariel Rodriguez all have struggled since the deadline. Trey Yesavage has recently seen work in the bullpen, with three relief appearances in his last seven outings, as the Jays aim to acclimate him to not starting. This puts a feather in the cap of Trey Yesavage's first pro campaign, and he's done nothing but excel since joining the Jays organization. There is one interesting thing to look out for, however; each first appearance in a new level is a struggle for the 2024 first-rounder. He walked four batters in his Triple-A debut, four in his first Double-A appearance, three in his first High-A outing, and six in his professional debut in Dunedin. Hopefully, he's able to shake off his first game jitters in his first time pitching for the Toronto Blue Jays. View full rumor
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Reports from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet indicate that Trey Yesavage is being called up to the big leagues. He is expected to be activated on Monday and should provide some additional firepower to the bullpen. The Jays must make a corresponding move when Yesavage is added, and will need to make a decision to remove someone from the 40-man roster to make room. The Blue Jays' bullpen was one of the strengths early in the season, but as the season went on, there have been a few notable meltdowns in the second half of the season. The Jays' bullpen had the 10th-worst WPA since August 1st, and had a below-average ERA. The bullpen additions have not performed up to expectations, and bullpen mainstays like Brendon Little, Jeff Hoffman, and Yariel Rodriguez all have struggled since the deadline. Trey Yesavage has recently seen work in the bullpen, with three relief appearances in his last seven outings, as the Jays aim to acclimate him to not starting. This puts a feather in the cap of Trey Yesavage's first pro campaign, and he's done nothing but excel since joining the Jays organization. There is one interesting thing to look out for, however; each first appearance in a new level is a struggle for the 2024 first-rounder. He walked four batters in his Triple-A debut, four in his first Double-A appearance, three in his first High-A outing, and six in his professional debut in Dunedin. Hopefully, he's able to shake off his first game jitters in his first time pitching for the Toronto Blue Jays.

