Simon Li

The Jays have had their fair share of disappointing prospects and picks, sometimes due to poor injury luck, sometimes due to poor drafting and development. At some point, these prospects had some hype, with bright futures and high rankings. Let's take a look at a couple of the hitters who haven’t really panned out yet. 3B/SS - Tucker Toman - 21 Years Old - (Single-A Dunedin) Tucker Toman was a highly touted high school prospect coming out of Hammond High School, and the Jays decided to spend $2 million, the second-highest bonus of their draft class, on him to convince him against going to Louisiana. They drafted him using one of the compensation picks that came from losing Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien in free agency. Toman was praised for having a good hit tool and approach pre-draft while also being able to hit for power. There were some concerns about some inconsistency and swing-and-miss, but all in all, the Jays were widely praised for making the pick on a young switch-hitting infielder who could hit for power. Shortly after being drafted as an 18-year-old, he even had a short run in the Florida Complex League with a .289/.391/.368 slash line and a 119 wRC+, providing some hope on Toman’s ability to hit as a professional. Unfortunately for Toman and the Blue Jays, nothing much has gone right for him since 2023. He had a mediocre year in Single-A Dunedin, his first full season of professional baseball, slashing only .208/.320/.313 for an 81 wRC+. He walked 12.5% of the time and struck out 26.8% of the time, which led to him sliding down all prospects list. In 2024, he showed more of the same while repeating Single-A in Dunedin, slashing .221/.301/.318 for a 82 wRC+ as his walk and strikeout rates went in the wrong directions. He required a month break on the developmental list to attempt to reset halfway through the season. Toman’s hit tool seems to be a massive issue at this point in his career. He ran a 69.1% contact rate in 2023 and slid down to a 65.9% in 2024. Add in the fact that when he does make contact, he doesn’t do much damage. It’s hard to see a path forward for Toman, even if his defense has been slightly better than advertised on draft day, thanks to a stronger arm that should allow him to stick at third base. Toman is still just 21, and he may still have a path forward. His right-handed swing is much less impressive than his righthanded swing, with a differential of 100 points of OPS in both 2023 and 2024. Toman may need to consolidate his efforts into his more effective lefty swing and try to figure out the power potential and hitting feel that led him to get him drafted so highly in the first place. He may have to do so in Single-A Dunedin for a third time. 2B/3B/SS - Manuel Beltre - 20 Years Old - (Single-A Dunedin) Beltre was the Blue Jays' key signing in the 2021 international free agent class. He signed for $2.35 million out of the Dominican Republic and generated a lot of buzz with his makeup and skills, despite lacking some standout raw tools. He showed solid athleticism and skills that had people believing that he could stick at shortstop. Scouts hoped his strong contact abilities would lead to greater power as he aged up and gained strength. Beltre showed promise as a 17-year-old in the Dominican Summer League in 2021, walking more than he struck out, and his .225 batting average was largely chalked up to bad batted ball luck. He still ran a 119 wRC+ in 238 PAs, showing flashes of promising exit velocities. His first season stateside also showed some promise. Although he hadn’t shown much power still in the Florida Complex League, he demonstrated strong plate discipline and was a slightly above-average hitter as an 18-year-old. Unfortunately, Beltre would not progress much offensively after moving up to Single-A Dunedin in 2023 as a 19-year-old. He showed decent plate discipline again, but failed to hit for much power at all. He hit six home runs in 431 PAs and ran a 91 wRC+, sowing doubts that his potential was limited to that of a light-hitting utility infielder. In 2024, Beltre showed more of the same, running a 96 wRC+ and showing even less power. Despite getting praise for his contact ability as a teenager, Beltre’s contact rates now are more average than good and his offensive profile has begun to look very limited. He has also moved down the defensive spectrum thanks to the arrival of top-ranked prospect Arjun Nimmala, moving off shortstop and splitting time at third and second. Although Beltre avoids strikeouts and takes his share of walks, the fact that he has no carrying tool makes it hard to project him as a viable major leaguer in the future. Beltre will still only be 21 years old for the 2025 season, but at 5-foot-10 and 155 pounds, it's unclear how much more strength he could add to his frame and whether that would slow him down enough to hurt his basestealing, at this point possibly his best tool. The fact that his contact skills are just average instead of good also makes it much harder for him as he advances and faces tougher competition. Beltre will most likely need to add to his defensive versatility and to improve his hitting to keep moving up the ladder. The praise about his work ethic and makeup give him a chance to get there, but he’ll need to have a strong showing in High-A Vancouver to really prove himself as more than organizational depth. View full article

Regarding Heineman, I think the Jays seem to just love what he has to offer. The fact that we acquired him 3 separate times speaks a lot to what the Front Office thinks of him. Speaking of DRC+, it seems to like Heineman a lot more than his actual production has looked like, maybe there's something about his bat that could be tapped into?

Yeah unfortunately, the Twins didn't send in many of their most talented prospects, I would have loved to see them go head to head. I tried to make note of that in the takeaways at least, but obviously am not so well-versed in their farm as you would be.

Although the Twins have a much higher-ranked farm system, the Blue Jays prospects beat them down in the Spring Breakout. Over the weekend, prospects of the Blue Jays and Twins faced each other in the second year of the Spring Breakout games. The Spring Breakout was designed to get fans excited about notable prospects and introduce them to other, lesser-known prospects. Although MLB Pipeline recently ranked the Twins the 10th-best farm system and the Jays the 27th, the baby Jays lit up the Twins, 10-0. Let's see if we can take anything from that performance and what we can look forward to! The Professional Debuts of Trey Yesavage and Khal Stephen Yesavage immediately showed why he was a first-round pick, coming out the gates with a first-pitch fastball at 97 mph. Although he seemed a bit anxious in the first inning, he settled in after giving up two hits, ending up with three strikeouts in two innings pitched. He flashed three plus pitches: a good fastball with good life, an excellent cutter with a 100% whiff rate, and a splitter with a 100% chase rate. Expect to see him start off in Dunedin with a good chance of progressing through the system quickly. Khal Stephen also came as advertised, leading with his four-seamer, which averaged around 18 inches of induced vertical break. He generated three whiffs on it, including a 94.6 mph to strike out Twins 20th-ranked prospect Yasser Mercedes. Stephen also flashed a few of his secondaries and his good command, running a 58% zone rate. He ended the outing with two innings pitched, one strikeout, and one hit. Jake Bloss Looked Excellent Despite shaky results, Bloss’s stuff has been stellar all spring, and the Spring Breakout was no exception. His fastball averaged almost 96 mph with 17 inches of induced vertical break, and he showed a promising slider and changeup. Bloss dominated the Twins prospect hitters, striking out four in two innings pitched while generating seven whiffs. An interesting thing to note is that Bloss hadn’t really been throwing his sinker all spring, and he didn’t throw one at all in this game. It will be interesting to see how the Jays adjust his pitch mix throughout the season. Kendry Rojas Found Another Gear Kendry Rojas stunned in his two innings, averaging 96.2 mph on his fastball and topping out at 96.9 mph. This velocity was a significant jump from his appearances in the Arizona Fall League, where the fastball averaged 94.0 mph, and it follows a velocity jump in the 2024 season as well. If this velocity holds throughout the rest of the season, expect to see some helium behind his prospect stock. Rojas also showed his plus slider, zoning it 90% of the time and generating a bunch of soft contact. Walks Are for Suckers The Jays paired their good stuff with good command, throwing a no-walker (the less prestigious cousin of the no-hitter). On the other hand, the Jays hitters showed excellent plate discipline, walking eight times, which holds with the organization’s love for prospects with great approaches. To be fair to the Twins’ arms, the pitchers they used were not on their top 30 prospects lists, but the Jays hitters were able to get 11 hits in addition to the eight walks. Both Bloss and Yesavage made the MLB Pipeline All-Spring Breakout Teams. Big Hits From Big Hitters Arjun Nimmala was able to drive two singles over 100 mph, while driving in a run. Despite not lifting the ball, the power potential is still tantalizing for Jays Centre’s top prospect. Alan Roden hit a two-run double the opposite way to start off the scoring for the Jays. He’ll be one of the most exciting guys to watch this upcoming season, as he’ll very likely see some major league time given how he’s been hitting this spring. Despite not getting a hit, Minor League Gold Glover hailing from Oakville, Ontario Dasan Brown showed some impressive exit velocities, blasting a 106.0-mph grounder that led to an error and a 97.4-mph lineout to center. For a guy whose main calling card is his defense and speed, showing any ability to hit will boost his chances of being a true big leaguer. Recent acquisitions from the Boston Red Sox in the Danny Jansen trade also had great games. The two infielders Cutter Coffey and Eddinson Paulino combined for three hits, one walk, and one RBI. Other trade acquisitions like Yohendrick Pinango and Jacob Sharp also got on base and scored a run each, and Jay Harry had this excellent defensive play against his former club. Lastly, Peyton Williams, the massive slugging first baseman also known as the Iowa Meat Truck, had a pair of hits, including a line drive single to drive in Yohendrick Pinango smoked at 103.0 mph. Although injuries prevented him from progressing up to double-A New Hampshire last season, if Williams stays healthy, he could definitely bring the Meat to the upper minors. View full article

Embarrassingly, forgot to include roster depth in where Schreck/Clase would end up, you're 100% right that something has to give regarding our OF depth, and some guys may have to stay in AA just to get regular ABs.

After the conclusion of Jays Centre's top 20 prospects, we want to highlight a few guys that just missed the cut or, with some good development, could break out and move their way onto the list. This time, we’ll look at some of the other guys who were acquired at the last trade deadline and see how close they are to potentially being impact players for the major league team in the future. OF - RJ Schreck - 24 yrs old - (Double A - New Hampshire Fisher Cats) RJ Schreck is one of my favourite prospects in the system, partly due to his name being a homophone of the hit Dreamworks movie but also because of his excellent plate approach and feel for the barrel. Schreck was acquired in a 1-for-1 trade from the Mariners in exchange for the aging first baseman and designated hitter Justin Turner and was mainly an afterthought among the more big-name deadline trades. Schreck was a late bloomer, only receiving $75,000 as a signing bonus in the 2023 draft from the Mariners. He was merely an average hitter in his 110 plate appearances in his first stint in professional baseball. In 2024, Schreck was incredible for the Everett AquaSox, the Mariners’ High-A team, as he walked more than he struck out and hit for an .865 OPS, good for a 146 wRC+. He took a trip up to Double-A Arkansas, where he struggled a bit in a short sample before getting traded to the Jays. From there, he returned right back where he left from High-A ball, slashing .255/.371/.521 in 114 plate appearances for a 153 wRC+. Schreck reached the 85th percentile in wOBA, 75th percentile in wOBAcon, 93rd percentile in ISO, 69th percentile in whiff rate, 90th percentile in chase rate, and 84th percentile during his entire Double-A season with both organizations. He also pulled the ball over 50 percent of the time and lifted the ball over 50% of the time, leading to a heavy pulled fly ball approach. Defensively, Schreck isn’t the most athletic, and although he has played center field, he is more suited for the corners. Schreck was able to see some action in spring, and although his results have not been very good, he’s still showing very good walk-to-strikeout numbers with a 21.1% BB rate to a miniscule 10.5% K rate as of March 13th, 2025. He’ll be expected to start the season in Triple-A Buffalo and hopefully have as much success as Shrek 2 did at the box office. I’m not sure it will happen, but I’m a believer. OF - Jonatan Clase - 22 years old - (Triple-A Buffalo Bisons) Jonatan Clase was the headliner in the return for Yimi Garcia, who eventually re-signed with the Jays following the 2024 season. The speedy switch-hitting outfielder has all the raw tools to succeed in the big leagues but hasn’t yet put it all together. Clase turned heads in 2023 for the Mariners organization, swiping 79 bags across High-A and Double-A while also hitting 20 homers. That outlier speed is his main calling card, and although he stole “only” 41 bases in 2024, he’s a threat on the basepaths whenever he can get on base. Clase paired his elite speed with a knack for getting on base, running an 11.5% BB rate, and an advanced ability to control the barrel with a 75th percentile in barrel rate and a 90th percentile sweet spot rate. That leads to a .384 xwOBACON, which is the 81st percentile. Clase also pulls the ball at a decent rate, at around 40% in the minors, allowing his power to play up. However, Clase’s main weakness offensively is his strikeout rate. His contact skills aren’t bad, but he can be prone to chase, as shown in his 28.9% chase rate, below average. Defensively, he’s still a work in progress; despite his speed, he’s a below-average defender in center with below-average reactions and jumps. Clase is on the 40-man roster and even got 66 PAs between the Mariners and the Jays with mixed success, but his stint with the Jays went much better, including his first homer of his major league career off of former Jays farmhand Josh Wincowski. He has struggled so far in spring training, so it’s more likely than not that he starts off the season in Triple-A again, but given his tools, if he can figure out how to strikeout less and improve his defense, he’ll be an exciting fourth outfielder for the Jays in the near future, and even if he cannot, his speed could be a game changer in a playoff series or as a pinch runner when the rosters expand. View full article

I've seen mixed reports, it's more the way he throws the ball is a little bit awkward, but I can definitely see him end up with a plus arm once he's fully developed.

From what I've seen, the top end of this class isn't very spectacular, but it does have decent depth. I've been encouraged by the Jays more recent draft strategy compared to to late 2010s, but you're right that they haven't had much success.

I do think that the upcoming top 10 pick for the Jays should help add another top end guy to improve the outlook of our farm, but if Nimmala truly breaks out it would indeed be a difference maker for our farm.

Welcome back to the Blue Jays Top 20 prospect breakdown. Guess what: We've made it. We're at number one! It's Arjun Nimmala time. You can find all the previous entries here: 20-15, 15-11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2. #1: Arjun Nimmala, SS, Single A, Dunedin Blue Jays Arjun Nimmala was the Blue Jays’ big first-round pick in the 2023 draft. His under-slot signing bonus of $3 million was a surprise, both because he was one of the youngest players in the class at 17 and because he was committed to Florida State University. Nimmala also made history by being the first first-generation Indian-American to go in the first round in any of the big four professional sports leagues. The teenage shortstop got into nine Florida Complex League games immediately after being drafted, walking in 35% of his 40 plate appearances. Fast forward to 2024, and the Jays had a decision on their hands. They could have Nimmala repeat the year in the FCL or let him have a full year of development in single-A Dunedin, an aggressive promotion. The Jays decided on the latter and Nimmala struggled hard in his first 125 PAs, slashing just .167/.280/.306 for a 74 wRC+ and striking out 34% of the time. The Jays then decided to give Nimmala some time off at the Florida Development Complex, letting him reset mentally while also working on some mechanical changes. Once Nimmala returned from the developmental list, he started to show why he was a highly-touted first-round pick, with a .238/.467/.571 slash line for a 172 wRC+ in 8 games in the Florida Complex League, and then carried that success forward after a promotion back to single-A Dunedin, where he ran a 146 wRC+ in 236 PAs. What to Like Nimmala was a boy playing among men in his first full season as a professional baseball player, 3.1 years younger than the average single-A player. He was the only 18-year-old to even qualify as a hitter in the FSL. This combination of youth and production makes it easy to project future success, and if he progresses well, the sky could be the limit. Nimmala excels at lifting the ball, with an average launch angle of 21 degrees. He also hits the ball extremely hard. He ran an average exit velocity of 88.7 mph, a 90th percentile exit velocity of 102.6 mph, and a barrel rate of 21%. All are solidly above average for the Florida State League, and the 88.7-mph average exit velocity isn’t far from the major-league average. Nimmala is also exceptional at pulling fly balls, running 48% pull rate in Single A. He pairs that ability for loud, optimized contact with a decent approach, not chasing too much and looking for pitches to swing at in the zone. Nimmala as a teenager is still not physically mature yet. He was listed at 6-foot-1, 170 pounds in 2024. He has a lot of room to grow into a big frame, which make it easier to project that he’ll grow into more power. As Keegan Matheson reported just over a week ago, Nimmala has already added 10 pounds. Here he is taking Yohan Ramirez deep last week: That was Nimmala’s second extra-base hit in the early goings of spring training. The first was this double off journeyman Brandon Leibrandt. Both pitchers were 10 years Nimmala’s senior. Nimmala is still raw defensively, but there are encouraging signs suggesting that he has a chance to stick at shortstop in the majors. He’s not the best runner, stealing nine bases last season, but still has shown flashes of above-average range. His agility and ability to get to balls and a plus arm projection gives him a good chance to be a solid shortstop at the next level. What to Work On Although Nimmala’s bat is his carrying tool, he does have a significant weakness that may prevent him from reaching his full potential. His game features some serious swing-and-miss, and he ran a roughly 70% contact rate in 2024, but Nimmala’s contact rates were solidly below average, just at around 70%. Some really good hitters have successful with contact rates that low, but it will the margin of error is simply lower when you whiff that often. The lack of contact ability showed up in his worrisome 31% strikeout rate. If Nimmala can cut out some whiffs without sacrificing his ability to hit for power, the sky is really the limit. His strikeout rate did drop slightly after coming back from the developmental list, but there’s still room for improvement. Nimmala did start playing organized baseball at a later age, and there’s hope that his below-average contact skills might improve through more experience. He also tends to struggle to pick up spin, so as he progresses through the majors, just getting reps in should help shore up some of those issues. Defensively, Nimmala needs to continue to put in the work to maintain at shortstop. With his frame not fully filled out yet, he may end up slowing down as he ages up, which would move him down the defensive spectrum to either second or third base. If he manages to bulk up while maintaining his agility and range it would make his outlook in the future much less variable. His arm strength has also been called into question, and he’s still raw defensively. He sometimes looks awkward, which led to 15 errors last season. If he’s able to iron out those kinks, it would also do wonders for his defensive outlook. What’s Next Nimmala is expected to start in high-A Vancouver, where he’ll try to prove that his second half wasn’t a fluke, but something that he could build upon. He’ll still be a teenager throughout the duration of the 2025 season, so he’ll be playing against more advanced competition in terms of age, and Nat Bailey Park is much more of a pitcher’s park. The good news is that Nimmala has already shown that he’ll adjust and work his way past setbacks. View full article

I think for an abbreviated start it's possible that he can have that in the tank, but I don't think he'd be able to handle that over a starter's workload. If he ever needs to be converted to a reliever that's an encouraging sign. Last season he had one tracked pitch at 96 mph, so even being able to top out at 97-98 would be pretty big for him. I am a little skeptical of Boston's radar gun from yesterday, they don't have Statcast so it may just be a mis calibrated radar gun. IIRC they had Corey Kluber hitting 95 mph in 2023 and that couldn't possibly have been right.

Welcome back to the Blue Jays Top 20 prospect breakdown. This deep dive will focus on the number five prospect in the Toronto Blue Jays farm system, as the Jays Centre community voted on. Today, we talk about right-handed pitcher Jake Bloss. Top 20 Prospects: #16-20 Top 20 Prospects: #11-15 #10: Charles McAdoo #9: Khal Stephen #8: Kendry Rojas #7: John Kasevich #6: Alan Roden #5 - Jake Bloss - RHP - (Triple-A Buffalo Bisons) Although Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner both were able to make it to the Toronto Blue Jays major league roster, Jake Bloss was the prized possession coming from the Yusei Kikuchi trade. Bloss was the 3rd round pick for the Astros in the 2023 MLB draft, receiving a $497,500 signing bonus, but immediately balled out by pitching to a 2.89 ERA and 3.36 FIP in 18.2 innings pitched in 2023 while running a 29.1% K rate. In 2024, he started out of the gates running, dominating High-A to a 2.08 ERA and 2.81 FIP in 17.1 innings pitched, with a whopping 36.8% K rate. He earned a promotion to Double-A Corpus Christi, where he continued his success with a 1.61 ERA and 3.30 FIP in 44.2 innings pitched. The Astros, during that time, had their major league starting pitching get decimated by injuries, so less than one year after being drafted, Jake Bloss was promoted to the Big Leagues directly from Double-A. Although he struggled in his three starts, his progression was one of the more surprising stories in the minors. Bloss was put on the injured list with right shoulder discomfort but returned to the Astros Triple-A team, the Sugar Land Space Cowboys, for a single scoreless outing before he was traded to the Jays. Bloss struggled with the Blue Jays in Triple-A Buffalo, as he was dealing with fatigue from his first full professional season and tinkering with his arsenal, but it was an impressive year for the 23-year-old. What's to Like? Bloss sits 92-95 mph on his fastball, but he has very good extension on his pitches at around 6.9 feet, as he stands at 6 foot 3 inches with long arms, which helps his velocity be perceived as faster than it actually is. In addition to the extension that he has on his pitches, Bloss’s fastball comes at a very flat vertical approach angle at -4.5 degrees, which results in his fastball playing up at the top of the zone, as the pitch gives off a rising or jumping effect which doesn’t move in the way that hitters are expecting or are used to. The righty's fastball also has above-average induced vertical break, averaging 18 inches, making his fastball play up as it also helps it simulate rising action on the fastball. His fastball also has some form of cutting action with a 4.8-inch horizontal break to the arm side. These traits on the fastball give it a 64 grade on Thomas Nestico’s pitch model and a 107 tjStuff+, and he had induced over a 28% chase rate and a 24% whiff rate in his 31 1/3 innings in Triple-A. Bloss also has a deep arsenal, with five distinct movement profiles, which makes it difficult for hitters to time up their swing when he’s sequencing and locating well. His best secondary is his slider, which he uses 24.8% of the time and behaves more like a gyro slider, with 5.3 inches of vertical break and 5.1 inches of horizontal break, sitting 87 mph. Bloss graded out well with a 103 tjStuff+ in Triple-A, with a 127 stuff+ using Eno Sarris’ model in his short stint in the majors. Bloss also throws another slider variant in his sweeper, which has a 12.4-inch glove side break and sits in the low 80s; it generates whiffs at a 36.4% clip. He also has a curveball with good depth and break that he mixes in, which he used more as a weapon to lefties than he threw in the upper 70s. Bloss’ sinker is an interesting pitch, as the Jays had him throw the pitch more after trading for him, and Eno Sarris’ model thought it was a good pitch in the majors, with a 112 stuff+. Bloss had trouble commanding it in Buffalo, with a 36.7% zone rate, but it got batters to chase 38.7% of the time, and when it got hit, he managed to induce weak contact. Lastly, he throws a changeup (also called a splitter), which provides him another option against lefties but lacks the movement and velocity separation to be a strong weapon in his arsenal. What to Work On? Bloss struggled with his command in his first professional season, so his walk rates improved from a 15.2% walk rate to a much better 9.5% walk rate in 2024. That, however, came at the expense of his strikeout rate dropping around 6% compared to 2023. Astros GM Dana Brown noted that Bloss may have been pounding the zone a little too hard, which explained the reduced K rate. This suggests that his command isn’t as polished as it needs to be to be an effective MLB starter, as after he was promoted from Double-A, he couldn’t zone his pitches as effectively. Since Bloss was rushed through the minors, he’s still figuring out how to effectively land his breaking balls for strikes, especially his sweeper and curveball, with below-average strike rates at the higher levels. In addition to his command not being fully up to par yet, Bloss’ sequencing isn’t fully seasoned yet, either. He’s still figuring out the optimal ways to set a hitter up to strike him out with two strikes, and with his large arsenal, he’s still figuring out how to keep hitters off-balanced without getting too predictable. The Jays have been tinkering with his pitch usage after the trade, which explains some of the poorer results in Triple-A Buffalo. Lastly, Bloss has been more of a five-and-dive pitcher throughout the minors, rarely going past five innings, and his stuff starts to degrade after 50 or so pitches. It seems like he was also getting tired at the end of the season with his fastball tjStuff+ tailing off as he threw more pitches. He hasn’t pitched this kind of workload before this and did have a shoulder issue, but he may still need to build up to handle heavier workloads. What’s Next? Bloss will likely start the season in Triple-A Buffalo, being one of the first starters if any of the Jays’ more established starters end up on the IL. He’s hoping to repeat the success he’s found rocketing up the minors in 2023 and 2024, and with some added polish, he could be a key contributor to the Jays' success in 2025 as the 6th or 7th starter behind Yariel Rodriguez. Most of his key competitors, Adam Macko and Kloffenstein, dealt with some injuries at the start of spring training so that Bloss could set himself apart from the rest of camp with solid performances. Turning just 24 years old in June, he still has a lot of time ahead of him to make contributions to the Jays, and if all goes well, he could slot into a mid-rotation slot in the near future with Bassitt and Scherzer becoming free agents after the season. View full article

Welcome back to the Jays Centre Top 20 Prospect reveal and breakdown. Today, we will look into Josh Kavesich as we keep inching toward the magical top five. Let us take the plunge and see what our number seven prospect looks like. Top 20 Prospects: #16-20 Top 20 Prospects: #11-15 #10: Charles McAdoo #9: Khal Stephen #8: Kendry Rojas #7: Josh Kasevich, SS/3B, 24, (Double-A, New Hampshire Fisher Cats and Triple-A, Buffalo Bisons) After missing out on the playoffs by a single game in 2021, the Jays had two prominent members of that team leave for Free Agency, with Cy Young winner Robbie Ray leaving for the Mariners and third-place finisher in the MVP voting Marcus Semien going to the Rangers. Luckily, the Jays could offer both qualifying offers, meaning they went into the 2022 draft with two extra second-round picks. With the first of their second-round picks, the Jays selected the shortstop out of Oregon, Josh Kasevich, for an under-slot value of $1 million so that they could sign touted High School Bat Tucker Toman 17 picks later. Unfortunately for the Jays, Toman has struggled immensely since becoming a professional baseball player, but Josh Kasevich has slowly improved as he moved through the system. In 2024, Kasevich started in Double-A New Hampshire, where he performed decently, slashing .284/.333/.364 for a 102 wRC+, earning a promotion to Triple-A Buffalo in August. There, he ended the season hitting .325/.382/.433 for 116 wRC+ in 173 plate appearances, capping off his most successful professional year. What to Like Josh Kasevich can really hit. If anything stands out about his game, it is that whenever he swings the bat, he makes contact. In his third of a season in Triple A, Kasevich ran a 90.5% contact rate and a 96.4% Zone-Contact Rate. He rarely whiffed at all, at only 10.6% of the time, which was the 97th percentile. As a result, he only struck out 14.5% of the time, which was the 88th percentile among all triple-A hitters. The 24-year-old shortstop isn’t just a weak-hitting slap hitter, à la Luis Arraez; he pairs his ability to limit strikeouts with solid contact all around. With a 37.9% hard-hit rate, a 104.2 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, and an 89.6 mph average exit velocity, Kasevich not only sprays liners across the diamond, but he hits them hard. Kasevich also has solid plate discipline, despite the mediocre walk rate of only 8.1%. He rarely swings at pitches outside of the zone, running a chase rate of just 18.2%. Because of his excellent ability to make contact, he regularly has multi-hit games, lining singles back up to the middle or hard into left field. Kasevich is well built, standing 6-foot-2 and weighing 200 pounds, but moves well for his size. Although not an aggressive baserunner, Kasevich runs well, having combined for 24 stolen bases in the past two years. He uses that speed well defensively, with solid but not spectacular range. He’s got very solid hands and rarely makes mistakes, limiting his errors to 11 at shortstop and one at third base last season. His arm is fringy for the position, which may make it hard to stick at shortstop, but he’s still one of the best defensive infielders in the Blue Jays system. He will be a versatile asset defensively at third base and shortstop, his primary positions. What to Work On Despite his great ability to make contact and solid batted ball metrics, Kasevich hasn’t been able to showcase much power. The most home runs he has hit in a single season was six in 2024. Kasevich is mostly a line drive and groundball hitter, and although those are great for hitting singles, he isn’t making the most out of his ability to make solid contact, losing out on extra-base hits due to his approach and swing. Kasevich should work on lifting the ball more and pulling the baseball to do more damage on pitches that he can turn on, as he can hit the ball hard. His level swing is a big reason he’s so good at making contact, but without any loft, it’s hard to expect him to hit for much more power than he already has. In Buffalo, he did show a bit more power, with all three of his homers in Triple A being pulled to the left-field seats, so maybe he’s found a little bit of his power stroke, but it’s still a work in progress for him. Defensively, although he's a solid shortstop, he lacks the elite athleticism to be truly excellent at short. He may move down the defensive spectrum to second or third base if he slows down, so Kasevich needs to retain what athleticism he has to stick at short. He’ll likely bounce around the diamond once he makes his way to Toronto, which may be sooner than we expect, as Bo Bichette and Andrés Giménez occupy shortstop and second base. What’s Next? Kasevich is an extremely polished hitter with little to prove, but he’ll need to show that his last couple of months in Buffalo weren’t a fluke and that he can be a high-OBP, solid defensive infielder who would be a great guy to have at the end of a lineup. He has been invited to spring training as a non-roster invitee, so it’ll be nice to see him get some experience against real major league pitching. He had a tough time against higher velocity in Triple A, so hopefully, seeing more advanced pitching will let him get better against 95+ mph fastballs. Expect to see him return to triple-A Buffalo and be a fixture at the top of the lineup. The Blue Jays infield is very crowded still, with many young infielders ahead of him on the depth charts, but Kasevich could see some major league time in 2025 if all goes right for him and if the backlog clears up for him. He could potentially replicate Ernie Clement’s production at third base with more on-base ability but less power. View full article

Welcome back to the most anticipated reveal of the Blue Jays Top 20 prospect breakdown, the top 10. Our first deep dive will be on the number nine prospect in the Toronto Blue Jays farm system. Catch up on the rest of the list at the links below: Top 20 Prospects: #16-20 Top 20 Prospects: #11-15 #10: Charles McAdoo 9. Khal Stephen - RHP - (2nd Round Pick - 2024) Khal Stephen was the 2nd round draft pick for the Jays in the most recent 2024 MLB draft, receiving an underslot signing bonus of $1,116,750 out of Mississippi State. As a college junior, receiving an underslot bonus is more representative of his leverage than his talent, as he had a very successful 2024, pitching 96 innings with a 3.28 ERA with 107 strikeouts to just 21 walks. Stephen was with Purdue from 2022-2023, first as a reliever, then as a starter; he improved his numbers across the board after transferring to face stronger competition in the Southeastern Conference. What to Like Standing at 6' 4", Khal is an imposing figure on the mound. Stephen throws with an over-the-top delivery and has a shorter arm action. His main pitch, which he threw over 65% of the time, was his superlative fastball. A pitch modeling darling, Stephen’s fastball didn’t blow anyone away with its velocity, only sitting around 92-94 miles per hour, but could reach 96 mph. Due to his height, he gets solid extension on the pitch of 6.5 inches, and he regularly gets a ton of induced vertical break, averaging over 20 inches on the fastball. Adding in his very solid command of his fastball, there’s a reason why he threw the pitch so many times. If Stephen can keep his fastball up in the zone, he’ll continue to get ugly swings like the one below. Stephen also throws various secondary pitches, but with his high usage of his fastball, he doesn’t really throw the rest all that much. His main secondary is a slider that averaged around 83-84 mph and had a greater than 40% whiff rate on the season. Stephen also had another breaking ball in his curveball, which he threw more to get me over pitch. It had an Induced Vertical Break of -5.2 inches and -17.0 inches of horizontal break that he threw in the higher 70s. Stephen’s most interesting secondary is his changeup, which he didn’t throw too much of the time, but it had good results when he did throw it. The changeup has decent velocity separation from the fastball, sitting around 85 mph on it, and it has good fade, with 11.9 inches of horizontal break and 14.6 inches of iVB. It generated solid whiff rates at 41.9% and held a solid ground ball rate when hitters did make contact. Lastly, Stephen threw a cutter sporadically, which sat around 88 mph. Having a deeper arsenal allows for more hope that Stephen can last as a starting pitcher as he develops. What to Work On Although Stephen had a ton of success with the pitch in college, he would benefit a lot from adding more velocity to his fastball; if he could sit more in the 95 mph range, it would add a lot of effectiveness to his already good fastball. MLB hitters are more used to seeing guys with average fastball velocity like Stephen has, and even though he has an excellent ride on it, hitters have been getting better at hitting fastballs with a ride. He’d also need to improve his secondary pitches; MLB hitters are too good at hitting fastballs to throw one over 65% of the time for the most part. His breaking balls were solid but unspectacular in college, and the Jays could work on a bit of pitch design to help sharpen up his slider and create more separation from his curveball. Increasing the velocity on his secondary pitches would also be a boon for Stephen, as pitches generally get more effective with higher velocities, as long as there is still reasonable separation from each pitch to throw off hitters’ timings. Getting more comfortable throwing the changeup would also be helpful for him; he would need to be able to repeat his delivery well enough to fool hitters, and he would also need to be able to locate it well, which is still a work in progress. The Jays could also tinker with adding other pitches to his arsenal, and a splitter that tunnels well off the fastball could add a devastating swing-and-miss pitch, and the Jays have found a lot of success with splitter pitchers in the major leagues. What’s Next Khal Stephen has a lot of interesting traits that we could look forward to, and if development goes right, he could be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. There’s also always reliever risk for any pitching prospect, and if his velocity falls off, he could be seen as more of a reliever. Still, the upside is genuinely there if the Jays do a solid job at development and if he stays healthy. Stephen hadn’t thrown a single professional inning as of yet. Still, as he was drafted out of college and is pretty advanced, he should start in Single-A Dunedin, or if the Jays are very confident that his fastball is too much for Single-A, he could head right to High-A Vancouver instead to face more of a challenge to debut. Stephen has already spent time in Florida at the Jays developmental complex, and the Jays should have already started evaluating what could work for him and, if he is successful in that, could get promoted pretty quickly through the system, barring any setbacks. View full article

I personally had him 9th, but I can see why some people had him a bit lower. He's most likely a platoon bat and he doesn't have a solid defensive position. I still think his floor is already set and if he can ever find a place to play on an MLB diamond he could be a real starter. It's just unlikely at this point and having a limited ceiling makes it hard to rank him super high when others could have mid-rotation starter potential. I do think that we are underrating him a bit, but it's not entirely unreasonable in my view.

Jays Centre's list of the 20 best prospects in the Blue Jays' farm system continues with players who rank inside the top 15 in the organization. You can view prospects 20-16, as voted on by the Jays Centre community, here. The list in full so far: 20. Dahian Santos, RHP, 21, Double-A, New Hampshire Fisher Cats 19. Eddinson Paulino, INF, 22, Double-A, New Hampshire Fisher Cats 18. Juaron Watts-Brown, RHP, 22, High-A, Vancouver Canadians 17. Enmanuel Bonilla, OF, 19, Complex League 16. Brandon Barriera, LHP, 20, Low-A Dunedin Blue Jays Without further ado, let's jump into the five best prospects in the Jays' system who just missed the cut on being in the top ten! #15: LHP Johnny King, 18, Complex League Johnny King was the third-round pick for the Jays in the 2024 draft, and has currently yet to throw a pitch in professional baseball. King was one of the youngest players selected in his class, being only ten days from turning 18 at the time on draft day. King was the 124th ranked draft prospect according to MLB Pipeline and the 120th to Baseball America. King is listed at 6ft 4in and 210 pounds, showing really good athleticism to go along with his big frame, having been the best hitter on his high school team. The big lefty throws from a lower three-quarters arm slot, and he currently throws 4 pitches. King sits in the 91-93 mph range with his fastball, but has topped out at 95 mph, with two high-spin breaking ball offerings being a mid-70s curveball and a tighter low-80s slurve. According to Baseball America, both breaking balls have spin rates in the 2,500-2,600 rpm range. He has a changeup that is still developing and that he doesn’t have the best feel for yet. His arm action has been scrutinized, and there are some real concerns about whether his delivery is easily repeatable which currently puts a limit on his potential command and gives him ample reliever risk. He also throws with a lot of effort, which is also a possible limiting factor. But, if he is able to clean up his arm action and throw strikes at a reasonable rate, he’ll have mid-rotation potential. The Jays have found a good amount of success with young pitchers with a good feel for spin and that have projectability, solid athleticism, and funky arm angles, so they’re hoping to repeat that with King. He’ll hopefully add velocity and sharper stuff as he ages up, while trying to figure out a mechanical change that could help him throw strikes on a more consistent basis. As King is coming out of high school, he’ll start off the season in the Florida Complex League. #14: INF Will Wagner, 26, Toronto Blue Jays The son of recently inducted Hall of Fame closer Billy Wagner did not inherit his father's ability to strike people out, but instead has a knack for not striking out at all instead. Wagner was acquired in the 2024 trade deadline, along with Jake Bloss, and Joey Loperfido in the Yusei Kikuchi deal. Wagner, quite simply put, can just flat out hit. He's been a solidly above-average hitter in each of his seasons as a professional baseball player, excelling in putting the ball in play while limiting strikeouts and drawing walks. He has a more passive approach, looking for pitches to hit without chasing much, as in Triple-A, he had a Swing% of only 39.9%, while chasing only 23.8% of the time. However, his ability to make contact when he did choose to swing was great, with a Zone-Contact% of 93.8%, which was in the 97th percentile. Interestingly, in his cup of coffee in the majors with the Jays (before he went down with a season ending hamstring injury), he was less patient, increasing his swing rate by 7%, as well as chasing 6.6% more. His contact rates for swings in the zone remained just as good, but he may have needed an adjustment to deal with more polished major league pitching and sequencing. Still, it didn’t stop him from being the first Blue Jays rookie to ever have a 5-hit game against the Twins in August. Wagner has very limited in-game power, although he had respectable exit velocities with an 88.1 mph Average Exit Velocity in Triple-A, as well as a 103.7 mph (90th percentile) Max EV. It is worth noting that Wagner was hitting the ball harder in the majors, up to a 90.6 mph EV and a 104.6 mph (90th percentile) Max EV. The main issue regarding his power potential is that he rarely pulls or lifts the ball, with more of an all-fields approach while also running a 49.0% ground ball rate. His ability to make good, solid contact on swings in the zone, as well as his patented patient approach should still result in him being a good hitter, but may limit his offensive potential without too many extra-base hits or home runs. Defensively, there are concerns about Wagner's defense, with the Astros playing him more at first base than they did at second base in 2024. In the limited sample size in the majors, Wagner had one Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and one Outs Above Average (OAA) in 172 innings played, but that's too small of a sample size to say that he can be an average defender at second. However, the Jays just traded for one of the best second base defenders in Andres Gimenez, so Wagner is unlikely to see much playing time at second. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. occupying first base, Wagner may find it difficult to find a position on the field to play. He has had minor league experience at the hot corner, but his arm strength was only in the 18th percentile and his lack of range may prove difficult to contend with now that Bo Bichette is back after a lost season. It is more likely that Wagner sees more DH time. Wagner's limited defensive profile and lack of power is what's most likely going to prevent him from being a full-time starter, but the Jays are definitely going to try to find a way to add his bat to the lineup, especially against righties. #13: RHP Fernando Perez, 20, Single-A Dunedin Blue Jays The 20-year old Nicaraguan had an excellent first season in full-season professional baseball, earning a spot in the MLB All-Star Futures Game as well as being named MLB Pipeline's Pitching Prospect of the Year for the Blue Jays, by virtue of being one of the only top pitching prospects in the organization that was able to stay healthy all year. Coming from humble beginnings, Perez only signed for a $10,000 signing bonus in 2022, and yet he's been one of the most surprising young arms in the Jays' farm system. He's had multiple feats already in his short career, pitching in a combined no-hitter against the Florida Complex League Phillies in 2023, as well as an immaculate inning against the Dayton Tortugas, the Cincinnati Reds Low-A affiliate. He pitched to a 4.06 ERA with a 3.47 FIP last season, but slowed down as the season drew to a close as he exceeded his career-high in innings by more than 30, and was shut down in early August. The 6ft 3in, 170 lbs righty makes use of a solid four-pitch mix, with his most used pitch being a fastball that sits 92-93 mph, topping out at 95 mph, with a 16.6 induced Vertical Break and a 2405 rpm spin rate. He also throws a low-80s slider that some have called a cutter, high-70s curveball, as well as a low-80s changeup that he threw as his main pitch against lefties. The changeup was his best pitch at generating whiffs by far, with a 42.2% whiff rate, but he still has inconsistencies with his delivery. None of his secondary offerings are standout at his current stage of development, as most of them need refinement, but the outlook for his arsenal is that they could have average potential. Perez's best trait is his pitchability, being able to command his pitches well, having a 100th percentile in-zone rate in Low-A Dunedin and a 74th percentile BB%. He's very capable of mixing his pitches and keeping hitters off-balanced despite his mediocre stuff due to having a strong feel for all of his pitches. Being only 20, if Perez is able to add more strength to gain more velocity, or if there is further refinement of his arsenal, there is still a decent amount of projection to be had as he advances through the minors. If he manages to be able to do both, there's a very solid chance he can move up the rankings, but currently it seems more likely that he'll be a No. 5 starter at his full potential. If he stays healthy, that could even possibly be his floor. It’s likely that Perez will get promoted to Vancouver early in the 2025 season where he’ll hopefully continue to progress. #12: RHP Landen Maroudis, 20, Single-A Dunedin Blue Jays Landen Maroudis was many people's breakout pick for the 2024 season, as the fourth-rounder out of Calvary Christian HS made some massive strides and turned a lot of heads in spring training. He had three excellent games to start off his first season in pro-ball, the best being his professional debut where he pitched four perfect innings against the Tigers’ A-ball team. However, in his third start, he went down with an elbow injury, which led to an internal brace surgery in late May. Maroudis will be looking to put this lost season behind him and showcase the talent that many people were excited for last season. Baseball America has stated that Maroudis will make his likely return in April, which means that he’s progressing well in his recovery. Maroudis is another young, athletic, projectable, low-slot starting pitching prospect with a good feel for spin. He sits in the 93-94 mph range on his fastball, being able to reach 96 mph, and with his lower slot release height he adds some additional deception as his fastball had a -4.5 Vertical Approach Angle last season, which resulted in a 23.1% Whiff Rate and a 29.6% chase rate. He pairs his fastball with a gyro-slider that he throws in the mid-80s, which he has great feel for, being able to locate it in the zone at will. He also has a second breaking ball in a slower curveball in the upper-70s, which had a 42.9% whiff rate and had an -11.4 iVB and a -11.0 Horizontal Break. Lastly, he also throws a changeup that had a 15.9 inch horizontal break to the arm side, but he struggled to locate it well. With a traditional four-pitch mix at 20 years old, as well as the pitchability and projectability you want in a top prospect, Maroudis has a decent chance of being a solid mid-rotation starter, but since he’s returning from internal brace surgery, he needs to showcase that he’s the prospect people expected him to be. Staying healthy enough to handle being a full-time starter will be the first big step on that journey. We’re likely to see him rocket up prospect lists if he does so. Maroudis is expected to start off the season in Dunedin again. #11: LHP Adam Macko, 24, Triple-A Buffalo Bisons The Slovakian-Canadian came over in the controversial Teoscar Hernandez trade, but his performance in the minors since joining the Blue Jays is not one of the reasons for that controversy. The undersized lefty who attended Vauxhall Academy in Alberta has struggled with his health and his command ever since being drafted by the Seattle Mariners in the seventh round of the 2019 draft. However, since joining the Blue Jays organization, Macko has steadily lowered his walk rate from about 12.0% with the Mariners, to 10.8% in 2023, and then in 2024 lowered it again to 9.0%. He also threw career highs in innings pitched with 86.0 in 2023 and then 93.1 in 2024. That being said, his command is still fringe-average at best, and he was shelved for six weeks for a forearm strain, showing that his injury issues weren’t fully behind him. Macko has been quite successful in his professional career at striking hitters out, with a greater than 25% strikeout rate at every level he’s pitched at (other than the three innings he pitched in his debut with the Buffalo Bisons). Macko is able to rack up those strikeouts with his solid secondary pitches, the best one being his big loopy curveball, which he throws in the mid-70s, which comes equipped with 14.8 inches of induced vertical break as well as 7.6 inches of arm side horizontal break that makes hitters look foolish swinging at it. However, hitters rarely did so because the pitch is easy to identify out of the hand with its shape and velocity. The slider is the secondary pitch he throws the most, which he tosses in the low-80s. It's more of a pitch he can locate in the zone more often and helps bridge the gap between his fastball and slow curveball. Macko’s fastball velocity is pretty mediocre, actually regressing a bit since last year where he used to sit 93-95 mph (now in the 91-93 mph range), but he has a deceptive delivery and his fastball had a 15.3 iVB in his short appearance in Triple-A Buffalo. It also has 7.9 inches of run as well, which helps it play up. He still can touch up to 95 mph, but that comes fewer and farther between than years past. Lastly, his changeup has a nice shape as well, with 15.9 inches of fading action, but he isn’t as consistent with it compared to his other offerings. This will be Macko’s second year on the Blue Jays’ 40-man roster, and now that he’s pitched decently in Double-A New Hampshire, he’s looking to continue his success in Triple-A Buffalo. His fringy velocity and average command probably limits his ceiling to a back-end rotation starter, but he’ll be a part of the limited starting pitching depth for the Jays in 2025, behind Jake Bloss and maybe even Easton Lucas and Adam Kloffenstein. Interested in learning more about the Toronto Blue Jays' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more! View full article