I never bought into the $20-25M number that Davidi and BNS were putting out there. After the non-tender deadline my update had the Jays with $47M to spend to reach $250M CBT according to FanGraphs. Subtract the AAVs of Gimenez, Yimi, Sandlin, and Hoffman from that while factoring that they're all taking a roster spot each of at least someone making league minimum, and you end up around the $11M FanGraphs says they have left now. Cots and Spotrac's estimates have been higher than FanGraphs all offseason, and remain so now.
I could see them spending right up around the 2nd CBT threshold at $261M though. According to Cots, their 2023 year end CBT payroll was $5M above the 2nd CBT threshold, so it seems as though they have spent around there before. Maybe they spend more aggressively earlier, and open the season there instead of end it there after in-season acquisitions.