InsideThePark

Great deal. We get a serviceable arm who's a huge upgrade on our current pen trash and good enough to stick around through the rest of his arb years. The money we take on is still quite useful when he gets healthy, we give up nothing in the way of prospect capital since McInvale is nothing, and we get rid of Panik. Win - Win - Win - Win. This trade is a 4 game winning streak.

Well that's not helpful, the Jays need relievers not starters (sarcasm)

I couldn't find anything regarding 2 run games, or looking at bullpen ERA in general, but this article has a graph relating win% in 1 run games against the combined WAR of your 3 best relievers. It's almost a flat line(no correlation). https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/8/22/6055447/the-effect-of-a-good-bullpen-in-one-run-games

I would say I supported his end of the argument if anyone. More in the middle. He's not saying it's not there, just that it's pretty insignificant(a game or 2 worth). Read where he said "imperfect" Essentially you're going to have a couple teams league wide over a full year who might be able to over/underperform by a couple games. Then another handful(lets say 8 who might be able to do it by 1 game. That's like 12 games over the course of an entire season for the entire league that had the skill(or lack of) to be better or worse than their pythag record. It's pretty insignificant. edit: The graph of said relationship probably looks like a straight line with the naked eye and you'd need to magnify to see the slight curve on either end.

He has 2 of them already that have been league average this year. He could bring in Kris Bryant and with Panik still on the roster he'd still be getting 3 games a week spelling Semien, Bo at SS(playing 2B with Semien at SS) and Vladdy at 1st with Biggio playing the outfield. Hell, Bryant would probably be DHing a couple times a week to get Panik even more games.

I think it's possible for the makeup of the team to have some affect. A good pitching/marginal hitting team is going to win more low scoring and thus closer games while a good hitting/marginal pitching team is going to win more high scoring games that could alter their run differential more. That being said the actual impact is much smaller than one likely perceives it to be, and the 5 win difference between our record and our pythag record is more bad luck than because we're a good hitting/marginal pitching team. I would estimate about 4 of those 5 wins to luck and maybe 1 to our team makeup. I would say over a 162 game season you might be able to attribute 2-3 games of over/underperformance of your pythag record to the makeup of the team. Anything beyond that(and probably the 2-3 wins itself for a lot of teams) is luck

He's a catcher, he's started 31 of 45 games. 2/3 is pretty standard. I'd prefer to see him DH a bit more when he's not catching but I wouldn't call it suspect.

The K rate is very exciting. He needs to cut down on the walks though. More than a walk every 2 innings isn't going to cut it once he starts moving up.

Jays don't have a 2nd round pick because they signed Springer. They pick 19th and then 91st because symmerty.

Not sure I'm all that interested in adding a top of the market type of piece. Maybe if the right deal comes by for a high end starter with some control I'd be down, but some decent relief pitching is what is needed most right now and that shouldn't cost any of our top 8 prospects. Moreno, Martin and SWR are my 3 farm untouchables FWIW 2 or more years of control after this year, what starting pitcher does Groshans + Kloffenstein + Kevin Smith get me?

He needs to make the majors on a team with Espinal just to confuse Buck and Tabby

With the missed year and rule 5 eligibility seemingly approaching more quickly for these guys at A ball(Martinez, Hiraldo, Jimenez) it wouldn't shock me to see quicker promotions. Martinez isn't eligible until December 2022 so they have some time there, but I think you'd want a chunk of the 2022 season in AA before then if you could(maybe 3/4 this year in A, 1/4 this + 1/2 next in A+, then 1/2 next in AA). Just so you're not burning multiple option years before they even get a taste of MLB ball. Hiraldo and Jimenez are both eligible this coming December which seems fast, perhaps because of the missed year. I feel like IFA guys who sign at 16 years old should get an extra year than HS guys. College guys get 1 year less for that same reason.

We don't even have to worry about there being a passed ball if there's an runner on either. The dazed ump will just call a foul tip when the bat was 6 inches from the ball on the swing.

I thought it was 130 PA or 30 IP(turns out it's 50 IP so Manoah won't be graduating as quickly as I thought), is there another cutoff that makes Hatch and others not eligible? I checked Hatch and Merryweather spoecifically to see if they were below what I thought was the 30 inning threshold.

That exert seems contradictory. The opening line says he's eligible to return Saturday and the final paragraph says he might pitch Wednesday. Is 1 of those an updated report?

Anyone want to take a stab at an updated Jays top 30 prospect ranking before Manoah graduates here by the end of the month? 1. Moreno 2. Martin ------------ 3. Pearson 4. SWR 5. Manoah 6. Groshans -------------- 7. Kirk 8. Martinez ------------- 9. Hiraldo 10. Smith 11. Hatch 12. Lopez 13. Merryweather 14. Kloffenstein 15. Taylor ------------ 16. Murray 17. Jimenez 18. Van Eyk 19. Pardinho 20. De Castro 21. Beltre 22. Palacios 23. Brown 24. Robberse 25. Machado 26. Danner 27. Maese 28. Britton 29. Adams 30. Frasso

Kevin Smith is already better than Biggio who doesn't deserve an MLB roster spot - Keith Law Probably They're a different type of player but Biggio's level is likely your reasonable peak, of course there's always pie in the sky possibilities that put him higher than that, but 100th percentile possibilities shouldn't really be considered. A decent expectation is fringe starter, maybe up to a Gurriel level player, with average to below average outcome being about an Espinal level player(not that type, but that level). With obvious bust potential still a possibility as well. That range of outcomes is a huge win considering how awful he was in 2019

I think so yes. I was told it rhymes with Oceans

I would assume any return to Toronto would coincide closely with the border opening up. I can't imagine the border would open up but MLB teams can't cross, that doesn't make any sense. I guess in theory they could open the border up to vaccinated Canadians to travel back and forth without quarantine only. I would assume every MLB team still has unvaccinated players and personnel. Current border restrictions are in place until July 21st at the earliest.

I disagree. He's given up 1 walk and 3 hits in 4 innings so far but 1 of those hits was a bunt single, and another an infield single. So he's essentially only given up 1 hit that got to the outfield(the 3 run double) and 1 walk. He's struck out 6. His first 3 innings were perfect. Are the results good? No, 3 runs in 4 innings doesn't look great, the timing of the double after 2 weak hits and a walk caused 3 runs, but 6 K's, 1 walk and just 1 hit that got out of the infield is pretty solid.

Moreno is 2 for 2 with a HR and a double in his short career as a 3rd baseman thus far

The next Josh Donaldson actually who came up as a catcher for those who don't remember.

I would assume this is more to see if he can handle it a few times a year to get him and Kirk both more playing time in the big leagues. If they get to that situation down the road it's always nice to have tried it in the minors. I mentioned this in a thread here a couple weeks back I think, about trying him in the infield to give you options. I like Espinal, but when your starting 3B is not playing if you can use Moreno at 3rd to get his and/or Kirk's bat in the lineup more rather than Espinal(or whoever your backup 3B is) that's a win. At least you know you've tried it in the minors so you can can see now if you might potentially have that option available rather than guessing if he might be able to handle it when at the majors when you might want to try it 2 years from now.

The team has the same feel as the 2015 team to me. Great team with a great run differential and amazing offense that grabs a piece or 2 at the deadline and just explodes to a 45-17 finish or something to win the East

I doubt it. The rotation is good for now, but health has been a huge concern at all positions this year and there's essentially nothing we have any confidence behind those 5 if someone gets hurt. You move Hatch to the pen and someone goes down long term and you're looking at either using Kay or trying to see if Pearson has it figured out again. I think they want to leave Pearson down there for an extended period and not have this yo-yo thing continue, and I don't see any confidence in Kay from anyone in the organization right now with how reluctant they were to use him when they only had 2 healthy starters. I think they want that 6th guy with options down there they can rely on if they need him and I think they really like Hatch and he's that guy. Is that the right call when our pen has been lighting wins on fire recently? Not sure a theoretical bigger need is worth more than a current smaller need but I can see both sides of that coin. Hatch is used to starting and eventually I think that's where he'll be long term. I think you'd see both Kay or Pearson up in that role before you would with Hatch if the pen issues got really bad(feels like we might already be there)