Yah, those three straight seasons with identical xWOBAcon were f***ing terrible. In 2016 it was in the bottom 8th percentile, 2017 the bottom 4th percentile, and 2018 the bottom 9th percentile. But maybe xwOBAcon is unfair to Joe, since it excludes walks and not striking out, both of which he excels at.
What a .315 xWOBA means playing in San Francisco we know with xOBA, which is similar to xWOBA and also goes beyond to include running speed, weather, altitude, and park effects. Or better still, xOBA+, a park and league adjusted metric for xOBA, similar to wRC+
2015 — 144.7
2016 — 116.7
2017 — 104.4
2018 — 91.5
2019 — not out yet, but obviously worse, given the raw statcast numbers we have.
The decline has been years in the making.
But I should have put that 29 is 'not young in today's game.' You're right, it's not old. I'm exaggerating today because of stress.
His batted ball profiles have been pretty stable, but the statcast numbers tell a very different story.
From the beginning with me it wasn't about his being a bench player, it was about the idea floating around here that he is a bounce-back candidate who was going to get enough playing time to be flipped at the deadline for some prospect fliers. That's not going to happen, not just because the playing time won't be there, but because he is replacement-level at best.