jimedmonds

I am in my early 40s so I am old enough to remember the B2B. A few things could be better, but I am in physically good shape - maybe a 7/10 with no known physical ailments. No UPF, drugs, alcohol, or medication. Hear me out. Is it possible that I may never see this team win a World Series ever again in my lifetime? Assuming no major wars or other massive external factors, with modern medicine, the average person may live to be around 90-100 years old. Let's say 100. The Yankees and Red Sox will almost always outspend the Jays, Tampa almost always fields competitive teams, and the Orioles are a wild card but look like a serious team for at least the next 7-8 seasons, I give the Jays like an average probability of 10% of making the post-season in any given year. There is a moderate-to-high degree of randomness in the post-season, sure, but let's say that the probability of winning the World Series is completely random, so 1 in 12. that's an 8.3% likelihood. My simple maths says something like: (0.10 * 60) * 0.083 = 0.498 So basically, a 50% probability that the Jays will win at least one more World Series before I depart the earth. I guess that's a bit of a sobering thought. I vividly remember '92 & '93, but I was a kid and I guess I didn't fully embrace the specialness of the moment. For some reason, I thought I'd see many more championships in my lifetime which I guess we can chalk up to the unbridled optimism afforded to youth.

Sounds like everything a beta would do. very rational, but weak. Vs. Dave Roberts - yeah, we'll do the exact opposite of what the guy we're courting wants us to do. Just because. very alpha, but also very stupid. Let's see which approach works out in the end. Could be the quiet stalker, San Fran Giants approach. or all moot because the battered spouse stays with the Angels because it's all he knows.

A lot of ifs...but if he stays healthy, shows elite middle reliever numbers consistently alongside an improved command and a plus secondary, is there any chance of ever stretching Pearson out to a starter in 2025? Or has that ship sailed for good?

Advanced stats people - does this make someone like Cavan Biggio even more valuable than his .210/.372/694 appears? His .372 and June numbers make him valuable as is, but does his RF/LF have any positive impact?

I keep reading about the expendability of Kirk with the inclement arrival of Moreno. Is this really a necessity? What prevents them from having a C/DH platoon to ensure career and season-long longevity?

tell me how I'm supposed to feel about this deal? feels like a great deal for a #3 with #2 upside in his 27/28-35 years?

I think the jacket has been way overdone lately and hope that it continues

I'll lay off the sauce when you lay off my wife.

hey bros its me again back with more contract offerings as per my previous lambasting from the proposed extension for Nate Pearson lmao. Teoscar Hernandez - 2022 arb eligible, 2024 free agent. 28 years of age. $63M for 6 years. $10.5M AAV. 1) If you're Shatkins, would you offer? 2) If you're Teoscar, would you accept?

would you play it by ear Arb-eligible wise all the way to 2027 with Pearson? What if there was a one-time, take it or leave it offer this offseason: $120M x 12 years. 1) If you're Pearson, do you take it? 2) If you're Shatkins, do you offer it?

keeping Semien seems unlikely, but what do you guys think Ray will command on the market? assuming Pearson regains form, I could definitely live with a rotation of Berrios, Ryu, Ray, Manoah, and Pearson next season.

can Kirk and Moreno coexist long-term? I keep seeing Kirk on trade rumours or trade chips articles. Given the fact that the Jays haven't had a home-grown catcher (pretty much ever in their history), wouldn't it make more sense to have them as a C/3B/DH platoon long-term? I'd be really loath to trade one of them away given the uncertainty surrounding catching prospects, and their potential +/++ hitting at the MLB level. Anyone disagree? The more logical play is to deal McGuire and Jansen for parts as soon as Kirk and Moreno are ready

Semien is the main story on ESPN. Any chance that he re-signs with Toronto or is he as good as gone?

just before I get too attached...the plan is to not trade any of these guys for short-term, bullpen help, right? can half-decent arms be had for the likes of Warmoth, Adams, etc. Maybe Smith goes onto this list. I'm thinking, upgrade the bullpen a bit more and ride it out with the starting staff once Pearson comes back. do a few summer callups with the AA/AAA guys to fill out the pen for the stretch run. Any playoff success if a bonus but they're not primed to win it this year, so might as well protect the assets and go for it next year and beyond...Thoughts?

would Vlad Jr sign a 10 year deal? Feels sub-optimal for him to re-up at age 32/33. I'm guessing he and his agent would look for either 7 years or 15 years. My offer would be something like 7/190 or 15/400. I'd probably just offer the 15 year deal and take the risk - I can't see this bat regressing below a .300-30-100 clip even as he approaches his mid-30s. Will have to DH him in his latter years, but the first 10 years of his contract could be legendary

This. It's like that pornography quote - "I don't know how to define incompetence, but I know it when I see it."

I think it's because they believe that Montoyo's intangibles in developing players and driving clubhouse cohesion outweighs the number of games that he's throwing away each season due to sheer strategic blunder. The latter is visible and probably quantifiable - at this rate, I'd peg it at 8-10 games given what we've seen so far. The former is neither measurable nor falsifiable, so I'll retain the belief that Semien, Guerrero, and Hernandez wouldn't be WARing what they are with a fat white dude like Gibbons in charge who also had better in-game decision making.

damn, say what you want about him as an MLB manager, but who here can say that you wouldn't want this guy as your boss? He's got your back through and through, even when you screw up colossally and takes all of the flak from everyone. If Montoyo were my boss, I'd be loyal to him to the end and know that I could do no evil. If I were Montoyo's boss, I'd fire his ass in a second.

the guy threw 32 pitches...and 7 of them for strikes lol...did it really need to come to this?

just logged in to smh. what the hell is this? I can understand if you're leading the division by 10 games with 13 games left in the season...but it looks like every victory is going to be crucial this year, and it looks like the team was just about to go on another roll....if I'm Shatkins, I fire this guy's ass after the game is over. wtf

thank you for the this - missed the game last night. News is a bit slow here in London UK about the Blue Jays, so I only get it from this forum and The Athletic, mostly. What's the vision for Merryweather going forward? High leverage/elite bullpen arm or will they stretch him into a starter in 2021/2022?

wait, what? sorry for the n00b question as I have been away from baseball until last night due to some personal/family issues involving Covid-19 - do they default with runners from 2B at the start of extra innings? is this for real? what other changes did they make to the game itself season?

who are some good FA targets who can actually get on base at a high clip? I can stomach the losing, I just can't stomach the pathetic .302 team OBP and dearth of any running game. take out Justin Smoak and this team has the worst on base percentage in the entire league.

these trades are horrible. 2/10 in my books I know I am being ridiculous when I say this, but I value transactions based on whether I have any interest in following the player's box score when I'm having breakfast in the morning (I live in London, UK, so 5-8 hr time zone difference). Only SWR does. I have no issues with the players that Shatkins have drafted. I have no issues with the players that Shatkins have traded - none of them should rightfully be a part of a rebuilding Jays team. It's the poor asset management and timings of these transactions that are inexcusable. This extends beyond this current season; all of these traded-for prospects are horseshit except for SWR, and he's an 18 year old kid in A ball. Unless there's someone else who hasn't been mentioned, what the f*** was the point of trading Biagini and Sanchez when they still have control?? And throwing in Stevenson dafuq. Why is Smoak still on this team?? I'm actually glad that Giles suffered this potential injury - shudder to think what Shatkins might have got in return for him.

exactly. I said Mike Trout as well. Ohtani has a unique skill set by virtue of the fact that he can pitch, hit, throw, etc., but Mike Trout is arguably the best positional baseball player of the modern era. Mariano Rivera is the best reliever of all time. Does the fact that he can't throw with his left hand as well make Pat Venditte more talented at baseball? lol