Run expectancy is an average. When you are using averages in statistics you have some high number and some low numbers that give you that "average'.Basic math.
When calculating run expectancy, they are using metrics from teams like the 2015 Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox powerhouses, teams with Mike Trout and Harper etc... Good offensive teams and players that are averaged down made lower/ bylesser hitting teams/players.
The 2019 Blue Jays so far is NOT the high end of the data.. That is why I said if it was the 2015 Blue Jays, different story. The 2019 is the low end of the data that gets you that average.. The 2019 Blue Jays do not have a 1.10 expectancy of runs.. They suck, their smart % play 8th inning tie game is getting a run on an out..
Some of you guys need to get your head of of spread sheets and look at the real world.
Another example. Ricky Romero, left handed pitcher.. All the data going back to forever says you hit right handed hitters against lefties. The Rays realized due to the way Romero's pitches crossed the plate to lefties, lefties actually saw the ball better/hit better and stacked the line up with lefties vice righties..
This was a situation decision that made sense even if stats (which are collective averages) tell you different.
Plus, the decision was made by professional managers/team that do buy into analytics.. I think they might know more then some Fangraph fan boy nerds.
Except for PH Hansen.. Montoyo should be drug tested..
However, bunting in THAT situation with THE Team we have now WAS the smart move.