wk680
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Everything posted by wk680
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I'm curious as to why Sanchez would be a risk for elbow problems more than any other pitcher. He has a smooth delivery with good mechanics and throws mostly fastballs, so not a lot of the strain that occurs with the breaking balls. Now Chris Sale, that is a candidate for arm problems. Reminds me of back in the day with Duane Ward: they warned his unorthodox mechanics would lead to problems and sure enough.....
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because on baseball-reference you can go to the team page and they show a list of the all time franchise leaders in WAR. As far as I know fangraphs does not have that. I didn't bother to add up the Blue JAY ONLY fWAR manually, but I can if you insist
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The logic regarding the value of the compensation pick is sound. BUT the conclusion that you should sign the player for more than 1 season to make up for the loss of the pick is debatable. This is particularly true with a 36 year old who may be going into steep decline. I would rather sacrifice the potential value of the draft pick in exchange for not having to commit more than 1 year to a player of that advanced age on a team full of other 30+ year olds. Keeping payroll powder dry for 2018 and beyond is worth the lost value of the pick. Maybe the best scenario for the Jays regarding JB is 1 year + a team option (say 1 year $19 M, with a 2nd year $19M or $1M buyout).
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A reasonable argument can be made for sure. He trails only Stieb and Halladay in total bWAR as a Jay (tied with Fernandez and 1 ahead of Delgado). In the past 7 seasons, Bautista averaged a wRC+ of 150 and averaged 4.8 fWAR. In his best 7 seasons as a Jay, Delgado had average wRC+ of 147 and average fWAR of 4.7. Those are close, but Bautista gets the nod for post-season production, for which Delgado never got the chance with Jays. Halladay averaged 5.4 fWAR in his best 7 season stretch with the Jays (2003 - 2009). So particularly if looking only at a peak 7 year stretch as a Jay, Bautista probably only trails Halladay.
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Totally agree. Tulo in the 5 hole could be the lynchpin to the Jays offense in 2017, just like the 'O' was for the '93 wamco crew. Not that we could expect anything close to a 1.072 !! OPS, but an 870 would be within reach.
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You forgot one, and I have a feeling he is going to have a big bounce back in 2017.
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The article does say there was discussion with EE camp the day before the Morales deal was signed "but there are no substantive talks". They may have warned him then that the window was about to close. Sounds like Jays FO were aggressive to get something done up front, and he wanted to wait and see if he could squeeze another $10-20M out of a deal with someone else and give the Jays the opportunity to match. I don't blame the Jays for closing quick on the Morales deal. I am sure they were highly attracted by him being a switch hitter with excellent splits (career SLG of .439 RH and .476 LH). Also has career .294 BA with RISP and career .264 BA in 'high leverage' ABs.
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It's 'complicated'. The boy was born and lived first 2 years of his life in MA. So he decided the Sox were his team when he started following MLB, which was after we had long since moved to Indiana (where there is no home team to cheer for). But rest assured, the Jays run a close second for him. As far as Pedroia, he may be an irritating little pr**k, when he is on the opposing team, but you can't deny his hustle and is a down to Earth guy who really did sign for a very team friendly long term extension because staying in Boston was priority number 1. EE was just talk where that is concerned.
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He wanted his cake and eat it too. Jays probably would have had to wait a month (after Winter Meetings) to have him decide their 4/$80M was 'competitive' and circle back around. Then they would have missed many other DH opportunities in the meantime. If he would have REALLY wanted to stay in TO, he would have taken the contract after the first few days of talks with other teams went nowhere. Also for a player who is a true class act and not motivated by greed: see Pedroia, Dustin. Now that is a guy you can be happy to have your kids look up to (he happens to be my son's favorite).
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As one who doesn't like Bautista and was looking forward to seeing him move on, I disagree. With the current situation, signing him back makes sense both for what his bat can do for the offense AND to placate the fan base. If they can get him for 2 years, $35M or even 1 yr $20M it seems a reasonable move to make. Also, I am not buying into this $10M dollar value of a draft pick versus passing on a known commodity on a team that is still in a small window to contend with a lot of aging players. It's still go time for one more year (without doing an AA and gutting the farm).
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Yes the $165M (or whatever) probably is not so much a cap, as a target currently agreed upon with corporate management but open to further tweaking. Good point about having budget flexibility for in season additions. I was about to say those are not so likely, since the Jays are not going to give up top prospects for 'hired guns'. But then considering the in season acquisitions in 2016, they did pretty well without giving up much in those trades.
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The other thing I keep thinking about is the length of commitment to an increased payroll. I think committing to 160M-ish for several years makes sense, like you said the increased chance that gives at being competitive should pay off in attendance AND Sportsnet viewership (yeah I know that is a separate account). BUT if they could load up on a couple more 1 year commitments for 2017 and push the payroll just for this season, it would be nice. Maybe one of EE or JB ends up in that '1 year commitment' category.
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Sean Rodriguez emerging as possible fit for #BlueJays
wk680 replied to Gary's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Steamer has predicted Navarro at 0.5 fWAR in 60 games / 244 PA. So maybe 1 fWAR as a #1 catcher. Would need to get someone really good for Martin for this move to make sense. -
Sean Rodriguez emerging as possible fit for #BlueJays
wk680 replied to Gary's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
I agree the best move here is likely no move, but his performance could continue to decline instead of the bounce back from 1.9 (in 2016) to 2.8 fWAR that Steamer is predicting. And for me it would not be a dumping, but maybe trading for a good outfielder. Although as I said, this only creates a new hole, unless they sign someone and that is not going to be cheap if you go the route of a Weiters/Ramos. -
Biotech research scientist
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Sean Rodriguez emerging as possible fit for #BlueJays
wk680 replied to Gary's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Hopefully Martin has a bounceback in 2017, and they could reduce the amount eaten in a potential trade or at least justify the salary. Good news is fangraphs Steamer is projecting 2.8 fWAR, so roughly in line with his $20M salary. Anyway, right now it's not like they can trade him - they don't even have a decent backup in place yet, let alone someone to step in as a legit number 1. Although paying Navarro $5-6M to be the number one versus $20M for Martin would look pretty good right now, considering what you could do with that leftover $15M. -
Yeah, Americans think they invented the idea of Thanksgiving (like they think they are the birthplace of democracy). Many other cultures have their own long-standing Thanksgiving-type traditions. Do you mean Americans or Canadians living in the US? I am the latter (for the past 18 years), and certainly after a while we stopped even thinking much about our own Thanksgiving, let alone celebrating it. As far as actual American Jays fans, yeah there are a few. For those of you here who know the political commentator/talk radio host Glen Beck: one of his co-hosts grew up in Connecticut; and faced with the idea of being a NYY or Red Sox fan (due to those being the closest teams), ended up becoming a Jays fan instead.
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Might depend on the team, but most likely YES:)
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Keep in mind this is the guy who was blathering on after the season ended about how much he wanted to remain in TO. Maybe I lowballed it a bit much. Should have said 3/$18M. And also if it is a team with a much less chance to contend for a championship, then that tells you something else about his motivation. Not that I am going to resent him or any other FA leaving. An extra $6M is quite significant on top of $15M. It would be a little different thing if a guy was offered $90M and went elsewhere for $100M (10 percent 'hometown discount' versus 29%).
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So if Jays offer 3/$15M, does he bolt for the extra $6M?
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That would seem a very good move, considering his projected performance for 2017. The only thing is his weak hitting against LHP and, as stated by MLBtraderumors: "Plus, his defense has fallen from Gold Glove caliber to below average in right field." But, I guess it is projected by Steamer to be superior to not only Bruce and Bautista, but also Cargo, who was a 2016 Glove Glove finalist. So still an upgrade
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Yes and the deadline for tendering offers to Arb eligible players is not until Dec 2nd. Thole's 2016 wRC+ of only 29 (136 PA) and fWAR of -0.5, suggest he should go non-tendered.
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Not to get into an argument, but it is indeed projections. It says in all Caps "Projected 25 man roster (2017)" and under payroll "2017 projection". On the roster side of it, I am fully aware they are only working on the players currently under team control. And this being less than a month into the off-season, that is likely to change substantially. But even a little bit of research would tell them Thole has only been kept around as the knuckleball catcher and having just added Jimenez to the 40 man roster, why not slot him in there. And Colabello, seriously? The guy is a disaster in the OF and was awful at the plate (albeit limited PA) at AAA in 2016.
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That's an interesting resource and helpful with all the info on one page. BUT some of their projections/predictions are ridiculous. For example a bench of Thole, Colabello, Goins and Barney. Don't they realize Thole is junk and was only kept to catch the knuckleball. Should be Jimenez in that spot (until/unless they acquire a new backup). Also Colabello as backup OF/IF!? Surely from the current candidates, Pompey or Ceciliani are much more likely, especially since both Goins and Barney (along with Morales) can play 1st. Also, predicting a bullpen with Loup as the only LHP and including Bolsinger. The latter represents the Jays best SP depth piece at the moment (had 21 starts with 3.62 ERA and 102 ERA+ in 2015). Try Girodo or Dermody as a second LHP. Finally, the payroll prediction of $138M is pretty weak. That would only match 2016 opening day, and I can't imagine it not hitting closer to $150M this year (hoping for $170-180, including several more acquisitions with short term financial commitments).
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I noticed something peculiar with Smoak. Over the 7 seasons since starting out in 2010, his performance seems to oscillate between below replacement level to above. Consider: OPS+ (baseball-reference): 82, 106, 85, 113, 77, 105, 87 wRC+ (fangraphs): 81, 103, 85, 112, 78, 108, 90 fWAR: -0.5, 0.5, -0.6, 0.7, -0.4, 0.6, -0.1 All three metrics are up-down, up-down..... So maybe they hope the pattern continues and he has a slightly above replacement level season again in 2017?
