max silver
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Everything posted by max silver
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Belt started showing signs of life in early April. From April 11-24 he hit .333/.379/.556 160 WRC+ with a 27.6% K rate. So he was really bad at the start and end of the month and really good in the middle, leading to overall mediocre numbers for the month.
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I think a shared responsibility for earned runs would ultimately be more fair and equitable to everyone involved. Something like the pitcher who starts the inning allowing a runner to reach first base and then the reliever taking over allows him to score adds 1/4 run to the original pitcher and 3/4 run to the reliever, runner reaching second base off of original pitcher is a 50/50 split etc.
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The club was easing him back after offseason knee surgery so I was fine with how they eased him back into the lineup. No sense having him push too hard too soon and risking blowing out his surgically repaired knee.
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Belt was only really bad for his first 6 games/25 plate appearances. His offensive numbers, although BABIP aided a bit have been superb ever since.
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Varsho has been trending upwards offensively as the season has continued. There aren't a lot of data points to compare but historically he's been a better second half performer compared to first half so the best is likely yet to come. He's likely the team's center fielder past this season as well unless the team re-signs Kiermaier so he's likely only a corner outfielder for this season.
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I haven't heard anything to suggest that Orelvis has been working to flatten his bat path a bit or not or whether he features an extreme line drive swing, just that the coaching staff was continuing to work on improving his swing decisions at the plate. The large increase in walk rate suggests Orelvis has been making much better swing decisions lately. His propensity for high popup rates also suggests that Orelvis has likely been swinging at a lot of pitches at the top or above the strike zone. I suspect that Orelvis may be starting to lay off higher pitches recently which would have the effect of helping some of the flyballs and popups turn into line drives instead.
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So line drive rate during this period is 8/29 or 27.6%. Ground ball rate is 100 - (Flyball rate of 42.4+27.6 line drive rate) = 30%. Hot streak batted ball profile of: FB% 42.4 GB% 30.0 LD% 27.6 IFFB% 14.3 Compare this for season rates of: FB% 50.4 GB% 33.6 LD% 15.9 IFFB% 21.1 During this heater Orelvis has seen a small decrease in ground ball rate, moderate decrease in fly ball rate, large decrease in infield flies, and large increase in line drive rate. All things that would point to a sustainable increase in BABIP if he's to continue with this type of batted ball profile.
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I had that thought as well. I'm inherently lazy though so that's a job for someone with more ambition.
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GDT: Jays @ Mets GM 2 of 3 June 3... Get The Series W Boys!
max silver replied to Spanky__99's topic in Game Thread Archive
It really felt like every time the Jays got a runner to second base the strike zone accordingly increased by several inches. The Chapman AB in the first had a pivotal strike call that really changed the inning. -
GDT: Jays @ Mets GM 2 of 3 June 3... Get The Series W Boys!
max silver replied to Spanky__99's topic in Game Thread Archive
Absolutely fantastic game today. Top three starters are great this year, bullpen has been top shelf lately as well. Once the lineup starts rolling a bit this club is poised to make some noise and start making up some ground. -
I don't know of anywhere where minor league batted ball data is tracked in that fashion.
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Berrios has been a really solid performer so far this season. He's not quite back to peak 2021 levels yet but he's not that far off.
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That was a really enjoyable game to watch. It's certainly nice when the team hits some home runs so they aren't so reliant on hitting with runners in scoring position. Huge props to Bassitt pitching an absolute gem with his wife in labour.
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Gruber is just as bad with his inane rantings about how Varsho is only hitting up in the lineup to appease Atkins. I'm sure Ross Atkins has bigger things to worry about then where Varsho is positioned in the lineup.
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As good as Orelvis has been in May it seems like he hit god level over the last 12 days or so. It appears as though opposition pitchers have become afraid to pitch to him, and he's been perfectly willing to take the walks when they are available. His recent splits are nothing like we've seen from Orelvis up to this point and are pretty eye opening. Since May 21 he's produced the following: 28.6%BB/12.2%K/2.33BB/K .320 BABIP .343/.531/.743 1.273 OPS 229 WRC+
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)
max silver replied to Krylian's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Uh I just looked up Kirk's numbers and he's hit .294 over the last week, but only good for a 63 WRC+. -
No way man, you'd miss a gem of a pitching performance from Gausman if you did that.
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A high 100's/low 200's BABIP looks to be standard for Orelvis going back to his high A debut in 2021.
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It should boil down to either Orelvis or Barger unless the front office trades for a Chapman replacement.
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It's really quite remarkable how different Orelivis Martinez's May results look compared to those from April. Something must have clicked for him, whether it's approach change, swing change, or simply finding his timing. First 16 games: .083/.149/.233/.383 -1 WRC+ .047 BABIP Strikeout + walk rates were reasonable 7.4% BB 23.5% K Latest 23 games .247/.376/.688/1.065 172 WRC+ .196 BABIP Small improvement in strikeout rate, huge jump in walk rate 16.1% BB 22.6% K
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Vlad is his own worst enemy right now with piss poor pitch selection. Lack of protection behind him isn't forcing him to wave weakly at pitches out of the strike zone, that's all on him. And on top of that Vlad isn't doing anything with the hittable pitches that he is receiving right now, that's not due to lack of protection either.
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"Only" 129 he says.
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I'm confused, wasn't White just transfered to the 60 day IL? Maybe this is a long term phantom IL sting so he can hopefully work his s*** out in the minors?
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)
max silver replied to Krylian's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Sorry not championship caliber, needs to be 10+ WAR minimum and challenge all time low errors record at short stop. -
You are acting as though Baker experienced a career changing increase in velocity, however what he is featuring at present compared to his short Blue Jays MLB tenure is less than a full tick of velocity. It's entirely possible Baker could have reliably retired MLB hitters based on the stuff he featured in 2021. I don't really agree Baker was that old. He was 26 when he last pitched in AAA, and when you consider there was no minor league baseball in 2020 due to the pandemic that really isn't so bad.