max silver

Crochet looks to be a legitimate ace in the making so I'll give the offense a small pass on last night's game. Given how dominant he's been in recent weeks I don't think there's actually a lot of better starters in MLB that are better than Crochet is right now.

He's made sizeable improvements to his whiff rates. Zone contact rate has improved from 67.8% to 78.2%, and overall whiff rate has improved from 37.3% to 28%.

There was a bit of a bad luck element to the slump but his expected numbers were still pretty bad. I looked up his numbers during the 0 for slump he experienced and his xwOBA was only .185 vs the .063 actual value.

So basically everyone except for the cream of the crop 95+ win teams should even bother trying. Thinking like that was largely ruining the competitive integrity of the sport as essentially half of the sport was actively trying to lose. I think the extra wildcard spots have been a godsend in that more teams are actually trying to compete, and nearly every year seems to have a surprise team largely spinning their wheels for much of the season, getting hot at the right time, and making serious noise in the playoffs. But of course with your mentality those teams should have packed in their respective seasons in May and not bothered trying to compete.

All the same caveats still applied after Moreno was dealt in that there was simply no way to know what the future held for Jansen. He would be taking a massive risk signing a team friendly deal if he were to finally stay healthy and put up a monster season so an overly team friendly deal was likely not in the cards. Given his extensive injury history it's just as likely as not he suffers some sort of soft tissue injury that causes him to miss several months of the season, so paying him starter type money would have been a big risk for a team that's already reached the upper limits of it's payroll availability.

I recall Jansen specifically stated during spring training that both parties agreed it made more sense to wait and see what type of season he had first. I get the feeling he'd be perfectly willing to sign an extension with the team once they align on value but time will tell.

If I recall correctly Bo hit 3 doubles to the pull side. One of them was a lazy fly ball where the left fielder was placed in the gap and had a long way to run but two of them were legitimately crushed.

An extension really didn't make a lot of sense for either side. Jansen would likely be leaving a lot of money on the table if he managed to stay healthy and the team could be taking a pretty big risk giving him starter money if Jansen ended up missing half of the season like he typically does.

Turner was sitting at 153 wRC+ at the end of April so there's no need to act like his career is over because he's hit a rough patch.

Vlad's a bit below his expected slugging and above his expected average overall it's a wash as his wOBA and xwOBA align almost perfectly over the last month or so.

I think the team's record is probably right about where it should be. I don't think the massive negative run differential is particularly representative of what to expect of the team moving forward as that includes a lot of blow out losses which occurred when the rotation was in a bit of shambles as Gausman worked his way into shape, Manoah was out due to injury, and Bassitt had a bit of a slow start. Compounding the issue was the lack of a longman in the bullpen to cover innings as both Francis and Rodriguez went down due to injury. With all of Green, Rodriguez and Francis potentially nearing their respective returns I expect the pitching will likely be much improved moving forward. I also expect the offense to eventually improve on the early results as well, but it remains to be seen if the team can score enough runs to go on a run of sustained success to grind their way back up the standing.

Placing a team's best hitters at the top of the lineup must be some kind of newfangled advanced strategy.

I'll agree that the team has essentially no shot to win the division but there is a pretty decent shot at a wildcard spot. The margin of error is much smaller now though.

That lines up with the starts where Alek was effective last season as his stuff+ numbers were terrible even in the good starts.

I think the front office actually made the right decision towards which catcher to trade. Kirk and Moreno are nearly neck in neck in terms of overall wins provided since the trade with Moreno at 3.2 vs Kirk at 2.8. Jansen is actually the best of the bunch, and trading either of Kirk or Jansen wouldn't have likely brought back proper value making the team worse in the aggregate.

That largely feels like it would be a sideways move at best.

This is just more overreacting to a slump. This happens every time the guy struggles at the start of the season, and the various detractors are always quick to make immediate declarations that the slumping version of this player represents his offensive upside. Conversely when he goes on an extended run of offensive success it's completely crickets time from the haters with nary a peep to be made about the success. Biggio is struggling at the plate, that's impossible to deny, but at the same time if he turns things around he has potential to once again be a very solid contributor. After his swing change last season he was the team's 4th most productive offensive contributor among regular players for 2/3 of the regular season, outproducing the likes of Vlad, Bo, Kirk, Springer, Merrifield, Chapman and Espinal. He was far from the reason the team struggled offensively as he produced much better quality of contact metrics and actually earned his offensive numbers and playing time by effectively swinging the bat. He produced a 124 wRC+ and 1.4 FWAR in 272 PA. That is a quality major league player as he produced value akin to a 3 win player if averaged out to a full season of plate appearances. He earned himself another look this season through good play. If he doesn't turn things around it's not like it's hard to simply allot more playing time to someone else, and if someone else eventually takes his place so be it. It's entirely possible someone like Barger eventually kicks the door in and takes the corner outfield spot, and the likes of Clement or IKF eventually render him as completely expendable, but that hasn't actually happened yet as it's up in the air what kind of offensive contributor Clement eventually settles in as over time, and IKF doesn't exactly have a track record of exemplary offensive production that makes him a shoe in to continue producing the way he has up until this point.

If he had a moustache he'd be a dead ringer for Ned Flanders. Great comparison.

So you are clamoring for Clement and his 43 wRC+ against RHP to get more playing time, but then you say that Biggio's 104 wRC+ is terrible. That makes a world of sense. I'll fully agree that Biggio can't hit at present, but at the same time I don't know if it's particularly reasonable to take a sample of at bats where a player is struggling/slumping and then assume he has no chance of reversing his fortunes at some point. Biggio is a slow starter, and in recent seasons has improved a lot at the plate as the calendar nears the end of May. Last season is a prime example of this, as Biggio was a very solid contributor after he leveled out his swing. He posted a .343 xwOBA/124 wRC+ over the last 4 months of the season. That is the upside he offers when he's locked in at the plate. Biggio's lack of swing speed is semi alarming, but as this is only 5-6 weeks of data without having any kind of way to know his previous baseline it's sort of impossible to know whether this is a sudden decline or indicative of the type of swing speeds he's typically been "blessed" with.

Barger largely looked overmatched in his small sample of major league playing time so it's entirely possible he simply isn't ready for the majors yet. I have a hard time envisioning a -76 wRC+/-0.4 FWAR player being some sort of solution to the team's woes at present. Clement has been a pleasant surprise, but his 41 wRC+ against right handed pitching doesn't make a strong argument that he should find his way into the lineup more frequently against same handed pitching. Biggio has produced a 104 wRC+ against right handed pitching so it's possible replacing him with Clement against RHP would actually be counterproductive.

Don't pretend that you saw Otto Lopez producing anything like he has so far this season. This is a guy who produced a .656 OPS in a hitter friendly AAA league last season so he fully played his way off of the Blue Jays roster. I can only wonder if he made some significant changes under the hood with how hard he's been hitting the ball. If he keeps this kind of production up he'll end up feeling like one who got away but he didn't do anything to earn himself an extended major league opportunity. I just think Biggio guy receives more hate than is remotely necessary. He's far from exciting but he's a solid bench player who doesn't hurt the team and contributes a win per season or so. Who are the cash pickups and waiver claims that the team has picked up in recent seasons that have outproduced Biggio?

Given the the fact you've made over 10000 posts kinda indicates that your identity is just as attached to a certain sports team as the rest of the regular posters on here.

This is a little surprising but Kirk has low key been nearly as hot as Jansen has been with the bat since around the time that Jansen returned. Maybe more days off for Kirk is key to keep his bat fresh but since mid April he's produced a 174 wRC+ in 35 PA, vs 178 wRC+ from Jansen (increased a good amount to 198 wRC+ after tonight). I think that instead of playing Kirk even less the smart move would be more DH time for Jansen, whether that means a little more time at third base for Turner or a few more rest days mixed in for Turner as he's gone ice cold at the plate with only a 75 wRC+ in the same period of time.

Jesus man what is wrong with you. You are like the ultimate buzz kill, lighten the f*** up for once in your miserable life.

I really hope the Manoah from the first few innings of his last start shows up and the not the guy that was shelled later in the game.