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JoeCarter

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Everything posted by JoeCarter

  1. JoeCarter
    Here's a novel idea: instead of acting as though LHP's are Orioles kryptonite for some voodoo reason that you can't explain, or treating all LHPs as though they were equal, why don't we actually look at the current Orioles' batters' history against each of Stroman and Liriano. News flash: they've hit them both rather well, small sample size nothwithstanding. Acknowledging that neither one has all that great a track record vs these O's hitters, I'll take the guy with a 4:1 K/BB ratio over the guy with 2.9:1. And take your pick from among the rest of the O's #s: Stroman's better across the board. Oh yeah, and he's also better by any non-O's-specific metric from this season. He was the correct choice to start, and I'm not even sure it's all that close. And also means that we have Liriano for Davis or other late-inning loogy situations instead of relying on Cecil. http://i.imgur.com/NZ3MXYI.jpg
  2. JoeCarter
    Heyyyy, look who's finally acknowledged that sample size matters!?! That's what I call progress! You should feel very good about what we've been able to accomplish today. I'll see you next week at the same time.
  3. JoeCarter
    Lulz. Sorry, I know it sucks when the actual numbers don't align with your pre-existing narrative. But at this point, you're not so much arguing with me as you are with math. Hey, I get it and you're hardly the first to get seduced by a small sample size into thinking a player is much better than they are. Here, let me try it another way: - You! Strawberry! Good effort today. Take a lap and hit the showers. I'm putting in a right-handed batter. - Pinch-hitting for me? - Yes. You're a left-hander... and so is the pitcher. If I send up a right-handed batter... it's called playing the percentages. It's what smart managers do to win ball games. - I've got nine home runs. - You should be very proud. Sit down. You starting to get it yet?
  4. JoeCarter
    Stroman has the best second half xFIP in the American League, and 2nd best in all of baseball (wedged between Fernandez and Syndergaard). And you guys want to pass him over in favour of a mediocre LHP foisted onto us in a salary dump because he's strung together a handful of good starts. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2016 Blue Jays Message Board!
  5. JoeCarter
    Here, let me make this easy for all you Liriano nut-hugging clown-shoes. You're advocating starting Pitcher #1 below over Pitcher #2 in a must-win elimination game. Are you f***ing mental? http://i.imgur.com/h0xjwsB.jpg
  6. JoeCarter
    The Liriano love is giving me an aneurysm. Look at it this way: if someone had asked you 10 days ago whether you'd start Liriano in a WC game, you'd have punched him in the spine, laughed heartily, then punched him in the spine again. If you deny that, then you're suffering from revisionist history to an absurd degree. You would never have considered Liriano 10 days ago. No one would have. And given the truth of the preceding statement, what you're acknowledging is that you're making this decision based on his last two (admittedly excellent) starts. We shouldn't be making this decision based on some sort of 'hot hand' theory that stats tells us doesn't even exist. Stroman's a better pitcher plain and simple. Yes, the O's have hit lefties worse this year (fwiw last year their RHP/LHP split was closer to even among the guys who are still on their team), but for me that doesn't justify rolling with a significantly inferior pitcher.
  7. JoeCarter
    No, I think that's wrong, MLB.com should hire better writers. The first 2 games (Det @ Tor and Det/Tor Loser @ Bal) only determine which 2 teams advance to the WC game. They don't determine the seeding /aka home- or away-designations for the WC game itself. That has already been decided by the 162-game regular season. And Tor holds the tiebreaker over both Det and Bal for that privilege. If there's a WC game and Jays are in it, it's in Toronto. Here are the actual 'official' rules. They speak only of how to break ties for the purposes of determining the two WC teams. After that has been determined, we go back to regular WC home-field tiebreaker rules as determined by the regular season tiebreaker hierarchy, which Jays hold regardless of opponent.
  8. JoeCarter
    Because Baltimore chose the "C"-slot designation, gifting the Tigers the "B"-slot. Read the thread dude.
  9. JoeCarter
    Could be worse. The Tigers could potentially be playing 6 games in 6 days in different cities: Sun: @ ATL (#162 today) Mon: vs Cle (make-up game which will be played unless both Cle wins and Bos loses today) Tues: @ Tor (1st play-in game) Wed: @ Bal (if they lose Tues) Thurs: @ Tor (WC game) Fri: @ Tex (ALDS)
  10. JoeCarter
    The answer to how dumb this was on BAL's part (assuming the 3 teams are evenly-matched skill-wise) depends on how important they believe home field advantage to be. If there is ZERO advantage to home field, then BAL's decision decreased their odds of making the WC game from 75% to 50% and decreased their odds of advancing to the ALDS from 37.5% to 25%. In other words, catastrophically stupid. There is, however, an inflection point at which their decision makes sense: if Baltimore believes a home team will beat an evenly-skilled away team at least ~61.8% of the time, their decision makes sense. Would like someone to check my math, though. There are other variables too, like who their lined-up starters are, the effects of potentially playing 3 games in 3 days in dif cities, and of course non-gameplay considerations like how much $ they earn from home vs. away games, etc. I personally don't think home field is worth anywhere close to that figure, and playoff stats suggest as much (though sample size way too small.)
  11. JoeCarter
    Not accurate. Read the article again: If Jays are in the WC game on Thursday, it's in Toronto, no matter who we play.
  12. JoeCarter
    Lol at recency bias after awesome Sanchez start. Stroman please. All day.
  13. JoeCarter
    Nice call dood.
  14. JoeCarter
    Lol at half the idiots ITT being the same guys in yesterday's GDT saying that brawl was no big deal and actually a "good" thing -- "gotta stand up for the team broooooooooossss!!!!" Benoit on crutches. Travis injures his surgically repaired shoulder. This isn't Monday morning QB'ing: I said it the moment Happ threw the 2nd beanball at Headley: that was fantastically stupid. Throw 1 purpose pitch, then get on with the game. Cannot overstate the stupidity of getting involved in that fracas with a team that has absolutely nothing to lose. Happ throwing 2nd beanball, Donaldson chirping from the bench, Smoak exploding like a volcano after getting hit in the shin. Why in the everloving f*** are you escalating a situation when you have everything to lose and nothing to gain.
  15. JoeCarter
    Severino shoulda been tossed after the 1st pitch of the inning - that's why warnings exist. It sucks for the team who was warned when THEIR batter was just hit -- yes, it's one-sided and somewhat unfair -- but that's the entire reason the warning system was constructed the way it is: it's marginally unfair to one team, but meant to preempt the escalation of tit for tat stuff. Ump should have tossed Severino.
  16. JoeCarter
    What part of zero upside do you not understand? You think some marginal-to-nonexistent "team cohesion" is worth risking injury to anyone on our team this late in the season? It was retarded, plain and simple.
  17. JoeCarter
    Did you see him walking? Didn't look good at all. There was literally zero upside for the Jays in escalating that. I'd expect that BS from some team of rookie hot-heads. Veterans need to be smarter than this.
  18. JoeCarter
    Donaldson's obv the Jays' MVP and we're not here without him, but but his hothead antics are what led to this. So you get clipped on your elbow body armour: tough s***, put your head down, jog to first and win this game. You put your entire team at jeopardy by escalating this nonsense.
  19. JoeCarter
    This is all absolutely retarded. Risk injury and/or suspensions.
  20. JoeCarter
    Obviously. Thank god it was only Smoak. May have actually gained us some fractional WAR.
  21. JoeCarter
    Profoundly stupid by Happ. 1st pitch behind him was enough. - 2nd one he risked getting ejected rather than just warned. I'd like our 20-game winner around for more than just 1+. - Putting the leadoff man on in a tied game while in a tight WC race, barf - Their starter throws 98 and we already know is only in the game for a few innings tops. He's 100% gonna drill one of our guys. Don't need any HBP injuries at this time of year. f*** man. 1 pitch of chin music woulda been enough.
  22. JoeCarter
    They're still gonna play their A-game for home field advantage throughout AL playoffs. They're currently within 1.5 games of both the Indians and Rangers for #1 seed, so extremely unlikely we get anything but their starters for at least the first game or 2 of that series.
  23. JoeCarter
    Remember when all the talk around baseball was how bad that trade looked for the Padres, with the jays only paying $5M of Upton's salary? Who's laughing now? The dude's been below replacement value in his 50-game Jays career. This man is getting paid $5 Million to do what could be had for $500,000. Sorry, to do worse than what could be had for $500K.
  24. JoeCarter
    More like a half inch. He ice cream coned that thing. Was only his 2nd game ever playing SS apparently. Hats off to a sick play.
  25. JoeCarter
    Don't get why one of Feldman or Schultz not used before Dickey -- was following game on phone and couldn't understand it and still don't. Feldman pitched ONE INNING the day before, and had previously not been in a game since Sept 13th. The guy's an ex-starter for chrissakes and we have an off-day today. He can pitch 2 days in a row. And Schultz hadn't pitched at all since Sept 18th!? Dafuq? Any explanation from Gibby or otherwise?
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