metafour

I wasn't talking about you specifically, it was just a general statement as it seems like some people are kinda failing to see the logic as to how Meyer could EASILY be better than Hancock. I don't think the fact that mocks are picking up "Meyer to Toronto" really implies smokescreen at all. Last year, Manoah to Toronto was consistently mocked as the pick right before the draft - and it was 100% accurate. Their interest in Warmoth (and even Pearson) was also very openly known predraft, and he was selected in the back third of the first round (not in the Top 5 where its much easier to connect players to teams). I can see the logic in either player.

Meyer's two best pitches are better than Hancock's two best pitches. I don't see what could possibly be "fishy" about any of this. They showed last year that they aren't afraid to take a "two-pitch" pitcher; I bet they believe just like with Manoah that Minnesota calling mainly fastball/slider with Meyer isn't indicative of his ability to throw a changeup. It might all be a smokescreen, but I'm kinda confused as to some of the reasoning brought here to downplay Max Meyer. Is this the first time ever that a guy with two 70+ pitches, premium athleticism, and legitimate control would somehow be considered a "disappointing" draft pick lmao? If they like Veen over Gonzales and Meyer over Hancock, it kinda sounds to me that they prefer upside with that pick as both of the players they "like" are on-paper higher upside players.

No, he's black. He is the son of Tracy Rocker who was an Outland Trophy winning DT at Auburn, and is currently the DL coach at South Carolina.

Martin has much more defensive value and his contact skills are more proven due to SEC play. Gonzales proved himself in the Cape Cod league, but at the end of the day they might be similar hitters with Martin having more overall value.

Your premise is correct, but both Hoffman and Pentecost would in reality fall under both categories. Its hard to argue that either of those two didn't have "high upside" - Hoffman was the guy who could have gone #1 overall pre-injury, and Pentecost was a "5-tool catcher" with all-star upside.

Kiley McDaniel player comps for a few top prospects: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29266064/the-next-pete-alonso-mlb-star-comparisons-top-2020-draft-prospects

Who is this guy and does he actually have any sources? Literally days before he started expressing this "Hancock is off the board" perspective he was Tweeting about how it was all a smokescreen and how Hancock was their guy at #5. He seems to say a lot of things under the notion that something will stick. I've never heard of this guy before this year's draft, but I'm intrigued as to what sources this guy from a third-tier baseball website has. He proclaimed in one of his Tweets that SHAPIRO was high on Owen Caissie. Like he "knows" about the Team President being high on an obscure Canadian HS prospect lol.

Its analytics w/ Hancock. He doesn't fit some of the current pitching models. Teams don't appear to like RHP who rely on a changeup over a breaking ball as much anymore; and Hancock also throws more of a 2-seam fastball with lower spin than the "rising" fastball that models are advocating.

In before we take Tyler Soderstrom.

Robert Hassell has received some Drew Waters comps - I wouldn't be mad at all if we popped him at #5 underslot, not that it looks like thats an option off of what we've been told.

Would a comparison to a 6-7 WAR player make sense? Probably not.

So it appears that Hagen Danner has converted to pitching:

While Nick Gonzales shouldn't be written off by any means, there are a few things that need to be clarified: 1) His lofty collegiate stats are largely seen as completely irrelevant in any scouting sense. He plays in a comical hitters' environment in a non-elite conference. The Cape-Cod performance proves that he can indeed hit at a potentially elite level, but no one really cares that he hit .450 or whatever HR pace he was on during normal collegiate play. 2) He is only potentially in play at #2 on an under-slot sense. This does not mean that anyone actually considers him to be the 2nd best player in the draft. 3) There needs to be some clarification on the comparison to Hiura: while Gonzalez is expected to be selected higher than where Hiura went, he is actually projected to be a lesser version of Hiura due to the fact that he isn't believed to have the power upside of Hiura. Remember that Hiura's draft stock was largely affected by the fact that he was DH'ing and recovering from TJ surgery in his draft year. He wasn't playing defense at all. I think that Gonzales is generally more athletic and thus has higher defensive upside than Hiura, but he is NOT seen as a "superior" version of Hiura. Both guys are bat-first players, and in this sense Gonzales is expected to be a lesser version of Hiura. Keep in mind that New Mexico State played a 3-game series against Texas A&M in Texas - and apart from Asa Lacy completely dominating him in this matchup (one scout said that Lacy made him look like a little kid) he was largely invisible in the series overall. He also went hitless in a game against Arizona State. These are obviously small samples, but its an important analysis to consider any time you see a player who is putting up video-game numbers against garbage competition. Nick Gonzales' upside will ultimately depend on how much power he ends up hitting for, which I'm sure will be the biggest point of contention in draft rooms. It is possible that his elite bat-to-ball skills translate to more power than people expect; if this is the case then he would be a very good selection at #5. However, if he only hits for average power...I'm just just not sold on that package out of an average second baseman, regardless of his hit tool.

Would you rather Kinsler or Christian Yelich?

Gonzales. I feel like they probably like Veen's swing a LOT.

I haven't seen any concrete proof, but I've read some people claim that he has average exit velocity readings. Take that how you will, but the Jays are one of the biggest "exit velocity" teams, and they also employ analytical draft models.

What risk tolerance? They actually didn't really show any discernible "trend" under Sanders and most of these draft sites have alluded to that. A guy like Manoah wasn't a "risk tolerant" pick: he was a pop-up guy without a long track record who also carried question marks because he threw almost exclusively fastball/slider in college and therefore there was projection on whether or not he even had a third pitch to remain a starter. The fact that he was a college pick doesn't inherently mean that this was a "low risk" selection. The year prior to that was the Groshans year - and the takeaway there isn't that they took a HS player, its that once you account how much money they paid to sign Kloffenstein, they actually spent something like 75%+ of their total budget in that draft on two HS players, one being a HS RHP ("the most risky demographic in the draft"). Even in this draft you are starting to see suggestion that they might prefer Meyer to Hancock: do you believe that its "risk tolerant" to select a 6-foot tall pitcher at #5 overall? Especially over a 6'4/6'5 guy like Hancock who has the "prototypical" traits? Even still, Veen isn't an inherently "risky" player as he is a bat-first player who has a track record of showing that he can in fact hit, and recognize pitches. Is he really that much more "risky" than Gonzales - a guy who profiles as an okay 2B defensively without elite projected power (on top of being a mid-major player coming from a hyper inflated hitting environment)? Gonzales' profile isn't model-friendly at all for the range where he was hyped to be selected in, hence why you're seeing talk of him kinda falling a bit. Risk isn't just relegated to College vs. High School.

BA just dropped a new mock. Anyone got the scoop?

Nah bro; the #5 overall pick is CURSED. We're f***ed.

This. He has arguably the best plate discipline in the HS class, has performed, and the swing is pretty flawless. There is no reason to expect he wouldn't follow a Bichette-like path to the majors - he isn't a "project" in any sense. The upside of plus contact, power, and plate discipline from a 6'4/6'5 frame that isn't even maxed out yet is what makes him a realistic option over the college pitchers. I don't think it really matters whether he can stick in CF because the bat and arm play at RF.

I don't think its "suspicious": because he's from Florida he was actually able to play in spring games and was dominant, which is when he started rising. It only looks like he started rising after all games had stopped because the media industry that reports on this stuff is naturally always behind what is actually happening in front offices, so there is a lag in reporting when a player's perceived stock rises or falls.

Is this guy above me okay? Do we need to call someone?

Having a high pick stops making any difference after probably the 3rd round. Even by the 5th round every team's board is going to look completely different; it makes no difference whether you pick 5th or 25th.

Okay, aaaand? If the teams themselves don't view it that way, then whats the value in how BA sees it? If Veen goes before Hancock/Gonzalez, then that doesn't really mean we got to pick between two "Top 5" players.