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glory

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Everything posted by glory

  1. If the Jays are out of it, then I think they'll trade everyone (Bautista, Edwin, Cecil, Dickey, Storen, Chavez, etc), especially those who are not QO candidates. Like Hurl mentioned, they need to fill a lot of roster spots next season, in addition to revamping the farm system. Obviously the preferable ending would be another playoff appearance and this time a World Series title, but if they fall out of it and get to gain some long-term assets at the deadline, it wouldn't be the worst thing to happen. Keeping everyone and missing the playoffs entirely would be the worst case.
  2. Since 2012 (wRC+ per year) Edwin: 150, 146, 151, 150 JBats: 137, 135, 160, 147 Obviously, Edwin doesn't bring any base running or defensive value, which is why Bautista is the better player overall, but when deciding between the two of them it really comes down to who you think will age better with the bat. My money is on Bautista, but if it's possible to get Edwin for half of what Bautista is asking for, then he becomes a more realistic option. I'd be OK with moving on from both of them (with Bautista there doesn't appear to be a choice), but if the deal is reasonable, then I'd be fine with bringing Edwin back. It wouldn't shock me if Edwin comes back similarly to Alex Gordon in KC, maybe taking a little bit less to stay where he is comfortable after testing free agency. Obviously, if another team blows the Jays offer out the water, then he's gone, and no one would blame him. The key is how many teams are going to pay that much for a DH? His market might be complicated by that.
  3. The difference between Shapiro and AA is level of trust, at least to me. The way AA evaluated talent from 2009-14 showed a complete lack of understanding when it came to advanced stats (he improved in 2015). Whereas with Shapiro, the guy goes out of his way to mention sabermetric ideology even when talking to a Toronto media that can barely understand anything beyond batting average and ERA. So while I was not a fan of acquiring Jay Bruce (unless it was a pure salary neutral trade with no prospect changing hands), I could at least picture the current regime having reasons beyond "my gawd look at dem home runs!". In 2013, AA was running expensive pylons on the field while talking about having a track team and power, and then the following year replaced JPA with one of the worst framers in the league in Navarro. The benefit of the doubt wasn't there, again, IMO. Although like I said, I thought he improved in 2015.
  4. The Angels apparently like Saunders. Just trade him there and sign Jackson for a year. Signing Jackson to a one year deal wouldn't prevent Pompey from playing. The Jays will probably need him regardless at some point, and then he can start in one of the OF spots in 2017.
  5. I agree with the first part. If Tulo wants to hit lower in the order, then do it. Some players prefer hitting in a certain spot. It's better the player be comfortable than try to force something he is not happy with. On the flip side, Pillar is a bad choice for lead off. Saunders with two knees would be OK, but he has one. Out of all the options with Travis out, I'd go with Martin. He's the best hitter out of the two other choices.
  6. Suddenly, Austin Jackson leading off would be amazing. Never mind the upgrade in left.
  7. Who wants to start the Fire Gibby 2016 thread? Let's not waste any time.
  8. Yep, I want him to have a 2011 type of season and then ride off into the sunset with a World Series ring. Best case scenario.
  9. Only questionable moves were Hendriks/Chavez and tendering Delabar. Otherwise, I thought it was a solid first off-season for the new regime. They added big league and minor league rotation depth without sacrificing a pick or a prospect, and the team in general looks in good position to make a playoff spot (division or WC). I was indifferent on the Bruce trade, but since it didn't happen, I won't include it here. As mentioned I do think they need another OF, and not Dom Brown.
  10. I actually feel Edwin will end up staying long term when all is said and done. He's two years younger than Bautista, but he's strictly a DH. The market for him will be different. Only a handful of teams would be willing to give a DH in his mid-30's the type of money he wants. I think this has a chance to end up like Alex Gordon where EE tests the market but ends up coming back for a more reasonable than expected contract. The Red Sox are the main threat but they may have to keep DH open for Hanley or Pablo. I don't mind moving on from Edwin but if the deal is reasonable, then go for it.
  11. I never said I liked the Bruce deal. I'm just saying he has a better track record and there's more reason to believe he's a "buy low" candidate than someone like Brown who is a lottery ticket at best. They acquired Bruce to start in LF. They acquired Brown as minor league depth. Now you can argue there's better ways to spend the money, and I'd agree, but the only similarity between those two is that they've been bad the past two seasons. One is clearly the better player than the other, and you can at least argue that one of them (Bruce) has the potential to bounce back offensively based on some of his offensive ratios last season. Frankly, if the Jays were paying ~$10m (the difference between Saunders/Bruce) plus giving up a prospect in that deal, then it's probably a good thing it fell through, but we don't know how the deal broke down financially and who the prospect was, so it's a mystery for now.
  12. Reddick was the guy I was looking at as well. Might be a bit undervalued in a FA class with Bautista, Cespedes, and Gomez, though I'm sure it will still cost a bit to get him.
  13. Yep, which is why what Keith Law said is correct. Shapiro has no pressure now. Everyone knows Bautista's price is ridiculous, and it basically makes moving on from him that much easier for the FO.
  14. Signing Bautista prior to 2016 would be foolish. A lot can happen in a season. Waiting it out is the best option, even if it means watching him leave.
  15. Lol what I have been ignoring? You're saying Brown is the equivalent of Bruce. I'm saying that's patently false. The salaries are irrelevant as far as what I'm talking about. Talent wise, Bruce is a better player with a much better history. One is a bounce back candidate, and the other has to be fixed by hitting coaches (a project at best, minor league filler at worst). That's all I'm arguing. Brown is not a replacement for Bruce.
  16. Damn, I agree with Keith Law. Hate when that happens.
  17. Bruce's BB%, Iso, hard%, gb%, etc, in 2015 was right in line with his percentages when he was good. He actually struck out less in 2015 than when he was good, as well. It's not like his ratios took a nose dive. His BABIP was on the low end. There's a chance his bat could rebound. He was a very good player at one point so there's history to suggest it's possible. Brown is the opposite. He's never been a good player save for one season in 2013 and even that never came close to Bruce's peak. He's a reclamation project without any question. The org will have to fix him. Bruce might require tweaking as well, but he would be a buy low option. There's a difference, which is why one involved giving up assets and the other was a minor league deal. Don't get me wrong, I am not a fan of either one of them, but they are not the same player.
  18. Keeping a prospect (whoever it was) and saving money by signing Brown instead of trading for Bruce is fine. However, Bruce is far more likely a bounce back candidate than Brown is. The floor is better with Bruce and the ceiling likely is as well, though I agree both sucking is likely as well. My point is, Brown will have to be fixed, while Bruce looked a bit unlucky last year and could conceivably bounce back with the bat.
  19. We have to ignore Brown's history. Unlike Bruce who at least had really good seasons before, anything Brown is expected to provide would have to come from him being tweaked or fixed by the org. Otherwise he serves no real value.
  20. This wouldn't be news if Bautista didn't bring it up. He's 100% responsible and I don't even know how that's debatable. The rant he went on a few days ago was unnecessary and unprofessional. No one is angry at him for wanting to get paid. That's fine. But acting the way he acted was wrong.
  21. Good move. Brown has been bad but it's a minor league deal and he might be someone that is fixable. Get Donaldson's hitting coach on the line.
  22. Those "real fans" would disappear if the Jays signed Bautista and the team fell off. Attendance didn't change with Clemens, Delgado, Halladay, etc. Just build a consistent winner and those "real fans" won't care who is playing as long as they can pay money to pelt trash on the field in October.
  23. The Cardinals lost Pujols and didn't miss a beat. That's what the Jays should be striving for. The moment you let past performance dictate future value is when you get into a lot of trouble. If Bautista was five years younger then it would be different but at age 36-40, I really don't care what he did from 29-35. It's going to be a whole different performance.
  24. He knows that Shapiro/Atkins are limited in what they can do. Rogers will have to sign off on the type of contract he wants, which is why he directed his venom at them. At least that's the impression he's giving.
  25. At least we got to see the twilight of Reyes, Buehrle, Dickey, and soon Tulo out of it.
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