Vlad's late 20's might be a risk due to his size and position. He should still be an elite hitter, but a fat 1B doesn't have the same type of value. I think the Jays would want his first 7 or 8 years, but can't see Shapiro risking anything beyond that.
I could see Shapiro signing Bichette, Jansen, Alford (if he turns into something), etc, but Vlad will probably Harper his way through arb to get that payday.