Cooler Heads Prevail

Too much complaining about a team having a dream season relative to their recent history. They've cleared out bad contracts, built a young core, and they are winning ahead of schedule. Cap flexibility is very, very good now. They can clear out a lot of guys if they want to, only Lowry presents an issue in terms of a value they could lose. Demar is well ahead of most of his peers this season, it seems absurd to complain about him when he averages 20 points a game. All right to claim Ross is a greater "talent" but he takes nights off more then almost any player on the team and Demar doesn't. In fact, it really doesn't matter who is "better" they need both of them. I simply do not get all the complaining about Raptor and Leaf players. Teams that are bottom dwellers that become solid playoff contenders that's a good thing.

It would be hilarious if the Jays contended this year after being written off in a million different ways, after doing the reverse last year. This being baseball, it's not as big a long shot as it may seem. Add Jiminez or Santana and they have a realistic shot to improve without needing massive upside surprises from the likes of Morrow, Stroman, Hutch, Rogers, and/or Happ. AL East to me seems somewhat weaker. Orioles are likely dropping back due to their budget, Yankees like the Jays have a lot of question marks. Red Sox have kind of rested on their laurels, which may be good enough we'll see. Rays are hard to peg, lots of pitching but if the sophomore jinx hits one player their offence might be pretty mediocre. AL West is getting stronger so maybe AL East won't be as much a dynamo as it appears. This is all good for the Jays to at least try to contend. I think they need an overpay on a free agent pitcher though to have a realistic shot because they passed on too many offensive upgrades.

Maybe your reality. Have you travelled anywhere at all ? Seriously, Toronto is a great place to live. I realize that trashing Toronto is one of the most popular topics on here but god it's such bs. Housing prices are through the roof now.

Except that it doesn't. The US "recovery" was built on massive printing of US dollars. Common sense dictates that a "stronger" US dollar has no legs for numerous years. This is a trading cycle not anything built on fundamentals. Here's the reality, Rogers is one of many corporations that are making out like bandits the last few years. It's been a corporation friendly environment, with relatively cheap labour and they are in businesses that are somewhat recession proof ( everyone likes cable TV ).

Dave Winfield, Jack Morris, Paul Molitar, Roger Clemens, Rickey Henderson, Frank Thomas Never ??? Already happened. Jays history didn't start in year 2000. You may think you know what the future will bring but when you get older you'll know things can change on a dime.

Given everything that has occurred the last year or so, it seems to me the Jays signing Garza is what may actually occur. Failing that, there might be a trade involving Seattle or the LA Dodgers. I can't figure the Dodgers extending Kershaw AND chasing Tanaka unless they have some trade possibilities already in hand. Even a TV money rich team has some limits, and they might want to pare their longer term commitments somewhat. More likely though is the Dodgers aren't really seriously chasing Tanaka hard and Seattle (or the Cubs, White Sox ? ) are the real favorites despite what the media reports. My hope is Tanaka goes to Seattle ( love him on Jays but doesn't seem likely now ), and Toronto makes a trade with Seattle to address our SP and/or 2B.

Jays need someone who is somewhat durable at this point. So while they can't completely avoid the risk that any starter they sign gets injured, they can hedge their bets by not signing someone like JJ who is of high risk to get injured ( Morrow is on payroll ).

I should have been more specific. I look at pitchers like JJ and Garza ( less so ) in two phases. The great consistent pitchers in their earlier years and the approx age 28-29 years as being less durable and some question marks exist. In Garza's case sure he might be a good gamble for the Jays if money and asset management are not an issue. But I'm assuming he'll be paid like he'll rebound to his earlier form. I'm just not sure he will and the AL East is a challenge ( sure he met that challenge on the past ), and I'm wondering why there is lukewarm interest in him this off season among real GMs. When I say my "instincts" what I mean is a pure guess based on seeing similar situations in the past and what occurred afterwards. If I'm wrong and they sign him I'm good it makes the Jays better. I just hope he's not injury prone at all, they don't need that. His short stint in Texas was not encouraging, but maybe I'm reading too much into that.

I don't buy the "budget issues" either we are nowhere near the fiscal breaking point on this team. I just couldn't see JJ being a good fit given his recent injury history. Why we didn't put that money to use on a decent hitter or two is puzzling though. AA hasn't really been effective at all since June 2013, the trades he made I can live with because hindsight is nice and risks needed to be taken to win. Only signing Tanaka or making some blockbuster trade with Seattle or Philadelphia can save the off season. Garza might appease some fans but I have a bad feeling about that guy in the AL East.

A free market with a huge demand for starting pitching valued him at much less then $14M. End of story. To argue anything otherwise is absurd.

No, people on this site are getting impatient. None of the pitchers getting ready to sign the most important contract of their lives are going to rush the process. They will all be signed unless they get in a debilitating accident in the off season. The chances of that are slim.

"Chances are very slim" is a myth on this site. People just repeat this s*** and believe it's the truth. Jays haven't signed anyone because they have legit chances at Tanaka. Think about it, it's the only scenario that makes sense here. Doesn't mean we get him, but this endless pointless speculation is real dumb. I defy anyone to confirm they have REAL information on the Jays and Tanaka. Maybe the same person who knew we would get Reyes etc etc last year can speak up. Oh wait, that person doesn't exist unless they work in Jays management.

There was never zero chance. For those who think Toronto can't draw good players, the soccer team that has been hopelessly bad for its entire history just signed several world class players. Management just decided to do it. It's the same with the Jays. If management wanted to make a splash they could of. They may choose not to. And I defy anyone to explain how the soccer team can afford those contracts but supposedly the Jays have to be careful about their budget. Why are people concerned how much money Rogers makes ( a lot or a little more then a lot ? ). Corporate world is often about greed at the top, if the Jays let the team be noncompetitive they lose lots of viewership and probably lose some profits. Tanaka chances are over ? Rumours are not truth. Until he signs I don't presume anything, but you seem very confidant you must work with AA and get your information direct right ? You couldn't possibly be basing your statement on online gossip that would be absurd.

If we add a decent pitcher and still have Reyes/Rasmus/Bautista/EE/Lawrie/Lind as a core offence the team has real playoff chances. Much worse teams have had success, just need some luck and one or two players to be upside surprises. It wouldn't be shocking if Dickey, Morrow, or Stroman had good seasons. Hutch, Melky, Gose are longer shots but not absurd to think they might contribute far more then we expect. Tanaka, Garza, Jiminez are all gambles but it's all fiscal risk . It may be you have to take on 2-3 "bad" contracts to compete now with all the new money in the game. Teams like Oakland and Tampa Bay may find it harder to stay near the top within two years. Toronto needs to act like the big market team that it is or risk alienating the fan base as was happening in late 2012 when we basically fielded an AAA roster most games. Publicizing strongly that he wanted to get a starter and not getting one would simply brand AA's chosen strategy since around June 2013 as a complete failure. He declined to add a bat or two, an alternate strategy that was very feasible if there exists no starting pitching on a palatable contract basis. Several of those bats were not outrageously expensive, it could have been done. My opinion, any attempt to rebuild or act like a mid market team at this point will fail miserably in Toronto. There are reasons why the Yankees and Red Sox would rather spend money inefficiently as long as some of their acquisitions work out. A bad team in the AL East would be truly horrible ( think Cubs or Twins in their worst years ), and Toronto will empty out the Dome in those circumstances. Raptors and Leafs will attract more interest and it would be dark ages for the Jays.

When you address the weakest part of your ball club ( durable starters with some top end possibility ), the value is greater then it would be for some teams. Even if Tanaka is somewhat disappointing, he'd likely help the club. If he was great ( a true #1 pitcher ) I like our chances to make the playoffs unless one of Bautista/EE/Reyes goes down most of the season. And Tanaka could really swing the AL East a lot depending on whether the Yankees or Jays get him. The Yankees seem weak pitching wise and their hitting may be good but then again it could be a Brooklyn Nets like situation that doesn't work out. Losing Cano is a problem, they signed a lot of guys to try to rectify. This could be the year the Yankees run out of magic trying to buy their way out of trouble.

You post like baseball is a predictable sport and you can slot in teams based on past individual performances. It isn't. Jays with Tanaka have very real playoff chances next year. Even with Santana they have chances. They may not be the strong chances, but they exist. As for needing two pitchers, they really don't, in a perfect world where there are more quality starters then jobs sure. But again, this is baseball. If Tanaka wants to come here they should sign him. It's only a fiscal gamble, Rogers makes lots of money and they need a pitcher. Any decent durable starter will help this team tremendously. The odds that we will find one more reliable starter from our current guys ( Morrow, Stroman, Hutch, Rogers, Happ ) is no long shot, its quite decent. The odds we find two are not so decent, but it wouldn't shock me if Morrow and Stroman got it done, and Rogers and his durability means we should have 5 guys all year that can pitch. Our hitting should be good next year. Lawrie and Reyes alone could be a substantial improvement, losing JPA is an improvement. Jays in all seriousness have every look of a bounce back team next season, coming off an injury plagued disappointing season where several key pitchers had bad years. How good that bounce is depends somewhat on adding one or two players still. I look at the roster and it's as good or better then most Jays teams for quite a few years now. So I refuse to write them off. You gave up already, if they do nothing much but miss the playoffs by 2 or 3 games you can do the what ifs at that time .

Or, a more likely possibility, you underrate him. You are far too confidant you know what follows here. Feel free to forecast his 2014 season.

He played through injuries, got moved to 2B for no reason, and those defensive "run" stats are pretty useless at times. Watch the guy play instead. He's a great defender. His bat may come around big time in 2014. Getting down on Lawrie is pointless. I love the fact he's on the team ready to go with no WBC this year.

Soccer contracts were massive. Someone gave the ok for them.

This is around the 30th post I've seen that presumes that starting pitching can be accurately forecast based on the previous years staff. In fact, even as recently as 2012 the Jays had one of the stronger starting staffs on a short run before the injuries hit big time. Other teams like Cleveland pre-2013 had awful looking staffs yet they had fairly good years. Starting pitching CANNOT be forecast, its subject to huge variance year to year. The only exception might be a team that is stacked to the gills with quality strong starters ( say 4+ ), and hence they can weather one major dropoff or injury. So my point is we are likely better then people think but maybe not strong enough to contend unless we add one piece OR get extremely lucky. By getting extremely lucky I mean something like Morrow has a good season and Stroman ( or Hutch ) makes the team out of spring training and pitches adequately all year. I would bet a large sum the Jays starting pitching is better this year then last. Losing Johnson IS addition by subtraction. Remember, we are losing Johnson as he was in 2013, how he does in 2014 is irrelevant. Anything Morrow or Stroman do is all gravy. Dickey is more likely to be better in 2014 then worse, and I can't see him doing much worse then matching 2013 myself. Rogers and Happ are far better then some of the guys we gave emergency starts to last year. On the downside ( compared to 2013 Jays ), I'd say only Buehrle might drop off, but the stats say he hasn't yet so at what point age matters is anyone's guess. So as I said, this is an area that cannot be predicted, but so many reasons exist already for them to be better then 2013. Just a bounce back to the norm in terms of ability and injury luck will make them better. And if they add one solid inning eater pitcher ( eg Tanaka, Santana ), its a good staff in my opinion. That may fly in the face of many on here that think because we were bad in 2013 we will again be bad in 2014. I'm comfortable with that, we have the talent to be a .500 team even if we add no one and none of the "maybe" pitchers work out.

Seriously, all I can do is report you because it is your reply that creates arguments. Again and again. Tired of your immaturity that seems to never run out. What I stated is entirely accurate, there have been hundreds of posts questioning our pitchers and touting the National League guys I listed. The fact that you don't like this point is entirely immaterial. And your thoughts on banning, well I have my own thoughts on whether guys your age should be allowed to post at all but its not a baseball topic so mind your own business and grow up kid. Find somebody else to harrass. Read what I posted again. If that is an attack then you have serious problems.

I'm noting what supposed experts have said publically, so if its wrong so be it. What are his April and May numbers ?

It's kind of funny on this forum that Dickey and Buehrle get no love from most people yet guys like Samar/Garza/Josh Johnson are touted frequently. You know what's better then a guy who is projected to be a solid starter in the American League ? One that already is a solid starter in the American League. And I'm no big Buehrle fan, his notoriously slow starts are a risk and he's overpaid. Kind of a bird in the hand thing. There is a huge risk in giving up talent and possibly a boatload of money on a guy who MAY be effective in the AL East. Better guys have failed miserably, so proclaiming that he will be that good #2 in the AL East seems overly optimistic to me. Time will tell.

That's your opinion, one I don't agree with. Given that projecting pitching is difficult, opinions are simply that. History suggests that acquiring National League starters more often then not doesn't work out. The Cubs wouldn't shop him if they felt he was a can't miss pitcher for their future. In any event, the Cubs want too much I wouldn't even consider a trade on their supposed terms.

Those are the moves that at this point I'd like to see Toronto make. Another option that has since sailed was stand pat on the pitching and sign a quality free agent hitter instead ( admitting the free agent pitching pool is weak/expensive and not a great fit this year beyond maybe Tanaka, Santana??? ). A long shot possibility is Iwakuma or Cliff Lee are available in a package for Bautista. Any other trade, like the ones involving the Cubs, seem like a royal rip off for the Jays that hurts their future with very little upgrade to their staff beyond innings. I'd rather give Rogers a chance then trade our best pitching prospects. I'd say the strong possibilities for upside this year rest with Lawrie ( offensively ), Morrow, Stroman, Hutch, and Rogers. Out of spring training, one of Stroman or Rogers may win that 5th spot and start the season in the rotation. Happ can take it otherwise. They are all fine at that spot. Not getting another pitcher is only a problem because Morrow is fragile and other injuries always occur. If Morrow pitches most of the year, we can live with this rotation. It's a big if. But only a quality pitcher much better then these other guys helps the team, and if we lose an asset he better be potentially one of the best in the league.