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Orgfiller

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Everything posted by Orgfiller

  1. Orgfiller
    Nah Drabek is a good one. He was the headliner of the Halladay deal after all. On that same note, Drew Hutchison. Not quite as hyped industry wise but he carved up A+ and AA (SSS) as a 20 year old, then got a cup of coffee at 21 and held his own before getting TJS in 2012 literally a week after it was announced Drabek needed his. Pretty sure Morrow also got injured around the same time in 2012, to put an end to one of the more depressing weeks in the 2010s as a Jays fan that I can remember. Our young promising rotation just decimated in a week.
  2. Orgfiller
    Also not to be that guy, and there’s at least some hope we can yet squeeze some value out of him, but Nate Pearson is the obvious present day example.
  3. Orgfiller
    Going a little bit against the spirit in that he wasn’t hyped or a particularly toolsy player, but Devon Travis is a good one. Came relatively out of nowhere blowing up for 4.9 WAR over a 163 game span in 15-16 at ages 24 and 25, but he was completely made of glass. I’m pretty sure one of his injuries occurred due to the team plane having a rougher than usual landing, and he hurt his knee in the process. Can’t make this stuff up. Travis looked like a sure bet to be the 2BOTF but instead was fully out of baseball by 2018 where the injuries made him a shell of the rising star he looked like only a couple of seasons earlier.
  4. Orgfiller
    They really put an emphasis on the “international” part of the IFA. Every guy signed this far from a different country, pretty cool.
  5. Orgfiller
    It's definitely that the Braves are blocking him. No country would willingly not call up a player of his calibre (barring Bauer like baggage). But he's just settling in from his major injury, so not surprising the Braves want him to take it easy, albeit disappointing. It's not like he doesn't run similar risks in Spring Training.
  6. Orgfiller
    I think given what Stripling ended up signing for, he would've taken the QO which would have been a massive overpay. The difference between the QO and the AAV he got is like 2/3s of one KK or Belt contract. As for the pen, I really think it's entering the season in a very good state. Swanson's addition really shouldn't be understated, even if you regress his 2022 (which was elite) the projections still see some strong K numbers coming from him.
  7. Orgfiller
    McCutchen isn’t an OF anymore. I think if we wanted an actual OF at this point it would probably be someone like Profar but he won’t come that cheap and could get a starting deal somewhere.
  8. Orgfiller
    This post is gonna get buried but pretty underrated meme you dropped here.
  9. Orgfiller
    I thought you were writing the lineup orders and almost puked at Biggio/Merrifield 3rd with Springer 8th against RHP.
  10. Orgfiller
    Merrifield has like double the amount of innings in CF than Biggio has TOTAL in the OF lol. Merrifield is legitimately an outfielder who can back up at CF and not do so horribly, we don’t even know if Biggio can hang in the outfield for long stretches without embarrassing himself (he’d probably be fine in a corner so exaggerating a bit).
  11. Orgfiller
    Basically yeah, and as a homer I’ll say Biggio has already demonstrated a higher floor and upside than any of the guys the Tigers got, albeit with a lot less team control.
  12. Orgfiller
    Because half the league made the playoffs and in 60 games you’re more likely to see more variance in outcomes due to the smaller sample size, not to mention all the rest of the baggage the players, league and world were dealing with at the time. There were some guys who had excellent 2020 seasons that haven’t replicated that success, and same for those that had brutal ones that have bounced back. It was a really strange season in general.
  13. Orgfiller
    In the past 5-6 years the Dodgers have traded Yordan Alvarez for Josh Fields and Oneil Cruz for Tony Watson. If Detroit wants to turn their s*** around they need to capitalize on the only guys they have of some value and move them for those sorts of pieces and hope one of them breaks out.
  14. Orgfiller
    I don’t hate the trade in a vacuum for them from a pure value standpoint, but I feel like for how bad Detroit is, trading Jose Alvarado lite for three entirely unsexy guys without any ceiling seems like a waste. Like, the Phillies couldn’t have given them some 18 year old likely bust in the DSL with 70 raw power or some other young fireballer that they would need to develop from scratch? I just don’t see what long term value Detroit gets out of Maton and Vierling who are basically replacement level quad A guys when they should be trying to luck into a Shields for Tatis Jr. type of trade to turn their franchise around. I guess it’s two warm bodies that replace some of their legitimately below replacement level guys but if you’re as bad as them already you might as well just tank with those guys.
  15. Orgfiller
    I’d like to consolidate some pieces for a 3B, SP depth, RP depth or a more established/less old 1B. Available are my superfluous guys at 3B and 1B, some of my prospect catching depth, and Conforto.
  16. Orgfiller
    Gregory Soto isn’t that good but what a strange group of players to acquire by the Tigers. Guys who aren’t that young and whose ceiling is no more than utility/platoon guys or below average regulars. You’d think 3 years of an alright reliever with good stuff could net you more than that, at least one lottery prospect in the DSL or something.
  17. Orgfiller
    Team is really cornering the market on fireballer Ju. Fernandez'es who can't command their stuff. Both probably blow major chunks but at the 1% chance that one of them gets it together for half a season and post big numbers they're worthy acquisitions for nothing.
  18. Orgfiller
    Okay, then we’re not getting Bryan Reynolds lol. Orelvis isn’t highly valued at all in the industry and Reynolds projects for 4 WAR and has three cheap years of control, you’re not gonna get him for scraps.
  19. Orgfiller
    Teoscar is widely regarded as being an extremely hard working player. And you can tell based on how much better he’s gotten as a player since he debuted plus the guy is in incredible shape. This idea that he’s not a hard worker or cares less because he smiles a lot and has fun in the dugout is a frankly overdone trope often targeting the Latino players who come from a different baseball culture where it’s okay to display emotions and not act stone faced all the time while playing a game.
  20. Orgfiller
    Those Walker and Taillon contracts are f***ing gross lol.
  21. Orgfiller
    Would he have? He's been bad/injured since 2020 and is 31 now. Feels like he'd be Kikuchi with a lower ceiling and a higher floor (much higher risk for injury though). 1/10 isn't exactly a bargain price for Matt Boyd.
  22. Orgfiller
    Ultra stiff just means he's unathletic. In contrast to say, a "fluid" athlete who moves well and is agile, he's stiff, flat-footed, etc.
  23. Orgfiller
    For what it's worth, from his blurb on "others of note" in the Jays' system from fangraph's prospect list on the Jays at the beginning of 2022: He did kind of emerge as somewhat of a guy in 2022 with good numbers in A and A+. Just like another loveable large first baseman from the DR that we know, his biggest issue appears to be swing path/launch angle. Lots of infield flies and lots of groundballs in A+. K rate not super concerning although it did trend up this season, walk rate not the best. The high BABIPs are a good sign of someone who's drilling the ball down there, I'd be interested to see his max and average exit velos.
  24. Orgfiller
    Big trade just went down. Discuss. AG as always a pleasure to deal with. Strong first offer, counter from my end, and another reasonable counter from his end is all it took.
  25. Orgfiller
    You're not wrong, but Nimmo will certainly be more than just "$6-8 million more" given how much longer of a commitment he'll require to sign, and upside wise if anything Bellinger theoretically provides more, but Nimmo for sure offers that present certainty. It's much more difficult to answer the question of a) 1-year reclamation project at <$15M, could be anywhere from a 1-6 WAR player, projects at ~1.5-2 wins. CF defense + good baserunning more or less guaranteed, offense can swing the whole value 5+ year commitment on guy who will be 30 at the beginning of the season, $100M+ committed, 3-5 WAR depending on health in 2023. Defense is "ok" at CF, likely will decline within a couple of years, health a question mark, baserunning exactly average, offense likely to be excellent for a couple of years.
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