DuckDuckGose
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Everything posted by DuckDuckGose
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It's going to be similar but Scherzer is a better pitcher than Price in a year that had less pitching depth on the market. Price is going to get paid but he may not break $30M (he might but no one would be shocked if he got $28M AAV). Rogers also has wizard accountants, they'll be fine in that area!
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I'm not talking about who wants David Price, I'm talking about which team is the best fit. The Jays have a dominant offense and no top flight pitchers. The difference between Price and what the Jays can replace him with in-house is about 4 wins. That's huge especially for a team that is trying to contend. $30M for 4 wins; that's $7.5M/win a bargain on the FA market. The contract will not lose them money. Why are you evaluating fit in a vacuum. Win 90 is worth exponentially more than win 86. Overall the contract would make ownership money, Price just wouldn't provide surplus value in the latter years of the deal.
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You lose money on the backend of the deal, and you make the deal knowing that. It's the cost of winning.
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Some teams are better fits than others. When you factor in window of contention, cheap controllable players to save $ and the prospect pipeline David Price is a better fit for the Jays than virtually any other team in baseball. Now look at the $ and it still makes sense as long as payroll goes up, so why not go after him?
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They need to examine the marketplace but you always take money out of the equation when determining the fit of a player. You then look at the money to see if the money makes sense. I'm not going to sit here and say I know what Price will sign for because none of us do. He'll get somewhere between $25M and $30M. The way this roster is constructed the Jays will need to add a #1 pitcher in the off-season. It could be Cueto, Greinke, Price whoever but someone at that calibre. To get those players you have to spend big $. So if you're deciding between fielding a contender for $10M extra vs fighting for a WC spot it's an easy choice for me.
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There are 3 players in baseball with an AAV of +$30M 1. Miguel Cabrera, $31,000,000 (2016-23) 2. Clayton Kershaw, $30,714,286 (2014-20) 3. Max Scherzer, $30,000,000 (2015-21) Price might $30M, he may also get $25M or $28M and it wouldn't be a surprise to anyone.
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Adding good pitchers costs $, they're better off spending a little more on a top flight guy than market value contracts for a bunch of mid-rotation guys.
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A) You're guessing Price gets $30M You have no idea what payroll will be in 2018. The way payrolls and revenues are trending across the league we can assume payroll will be going up (way above $140M which they spent last season) C) Take money out of the equation and Price is a great fit for this roster Your whole argument is that the Jays haven't spent in the past, why can't they spend going forward? They have the richest owners in baseballl, a fanbase that will support a winner and the means to win.
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That's a moronic statement. Nothing in life is that black and white. Good pitchers are conducive to winning. The Jays are going to need pitching in 2016 and beyond. They do not have MLB ready pitching after the deadline.
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And why shouldn't they?
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LAD, CHI, and NYY will all make huge offers and the Yanks tend to get the players they covet. Jays are a long shot but it doesn't mean it's impossible.
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Rogers are the richest owners in baseball. They're currently seeing record TV ratings for the stations they own and attendance records for their stadium. Payroll should go up if fan support goes up. Buehrle is coming off the books. I'm realistic in understanding Price is unlikely to resign here but to say there is no way it happens is just unnecessarily pessimistic IMO.
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They said the A's would never trade JD. They said Russ Martin would never sign here. They said the Jays wouldn't be able to land Tulo. They said Price was going to LA. Why can't they resign Price?
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Everything you said + the fact that if the Jays don't resign him he's going to the Yankees. How much is it worth to the FO to keep him out of NY? I'm guessing quite a bit of $.
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What's the point in having that attitude?
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You don't resign Price to help this team in +5yrs, you sign him to help win games now. If the Jays can put together a string of playoff appearances over the initial 3-4yrs of Price's deal the contract will pay for itself and you deal with the declining performance when it happens.
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The team needs an ace. resigning Price may not provide surplus value over the contract but it will add 3-4 wins (not theoretical wins, actual wins) over the course of a season. That takes the Jays from an 87 win team to a +90 win team which would be a great use of money.
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If TV ratings and ticket sales keep up we may actually resign Price!
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Orioles Hangout discussionxxxxxxxxx
DuckDuckGose replied to Boxcar's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
It was that long ago eh? I guess it all blends together after awhile -
Orioles Hangout discussionxxxxxxxxx
DuckDuckGose replied to Boxcar's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Yup, it's been awhile since I listened to him on the Fan or JaysTalk consistently (so maybe he isn't on here anymore) but he used to bring up our discussions on the radio all the time. Campbell one time took a nickname from the boards and used it on the broadcast, forget for who though. -
Orioles Hangout discussionxxxxxxxxx
DuckDuckGose replied to Boxcar's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
I know a bunch of the local media guys, like Wilner, Davidi, Campbell, are on here occasionally but I doubt that any of the national US media guys are on here ever. -
Over a full season batting 4th vs 5th is a difference of ~25PA, 4th vs 6th is a difference of ~35PA's and 1st vs 6th is a difference of ~90PA's.
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Apparently Martin ahs been banged up all year, I could see him trying to minimize his AB's to keep him healthy.
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If playing isn't going to make it worse and the player says they are good to play what is the doctor supposed to do? They manage the pain and the player plays. Nothing wrong with that.
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WAR isn't predictive, that's why you use projection systems which are very very good at predicting future performance.
