Olerud363

I have no idea if the jays use stats or not... but the guys who rated sub-prime mortgages used stats... a lot of good it did them. Sometimes things come down to a bunch of guys sitting in a room shooting the s***... How many games will Jose Reyes play in 2013?? How will Josh Johnson's arm hold out?? How will Dickey age?? Stats should be part of it... but only part of it. You need guys shooting the s***, speculating, trying to do their best to figure out all kinds of scenarios. Bill James isn't just about stats... it's a lot of essays, thinking, writing. John Henry is about trading billion dollar assets. When you have John Henry and Bill James on one side, and Beeston and Gaston on the other it's not fair. You argue that Beeston and Gaston aren't really involved in the decision making... OK then. fine. If that's true my point still stands. In that case Ben Cherington has incredible mentors in James and Henry... AA does not have this.

Interesting... An exclusive agreement with the cubs. That other guy, flashman, is arguing that the "president" doesn't matter. Chooses the color of the paint and the cake that will be served (so to say) basically. Well while Paul Beeston chooses the color of the paint and the cake that will be served (so to say), Theo Epstein gets Tango to sign an exclusive agreement. And that is why we lose. Epstein vs. Beeston.... not fair, but life isn't fair.

I am very aware that Beeston does not own the Jays. Trust me. I know who owns the Jays. I know who owns the red sox. I know who owns the Orioles. I know who owns the Rays. You, beyond anyone else, has a consistent record of favouring young players over old guys. You even argued that Bautista should of been traded after 2010. In retrospect it could be argued that nuking the team completely, trading off all the assets, never trading a young player for older guys, that following that path would have been much better. So why didn't this happen?? Because the team is being run by a politician. Appearances are favoured over analytics. Beeston doesn't own the team ofcourse. But that's a characteristic of a politician... someone in charge of something they don't own.

From my point of view Beeston only hired AA because he needed someone he could control to make sure his buddy Cito was protected from the "mutiny" of 2009. Keep in mind AA was hired literally 36 hours after the mutiny became public. Guys like Beeston are master politicians and always escape blame. Beeston used AA to help his friends. Now if there's heat Beeston will tell the Roger's suits they need a new strategy, an older GM.

No way Beeston would hire Friedman. Friendman would fire Murphy, Gaston, and all kinds of nameless old scouts that Beeston takes care of,.

Tango is a consultant who worked a bit with Toronto but also has worked with other teams (such as Seattle). Tango isn't even on the Blue Jays org chart anyways. James and Gaston fill the same role. They are guys that Henry/Beeston rely on to throw ideas off of, shoot the s*** with. You think Beeston calls up Tango?? You think because Rogers suits are good at monopolizing the Cell Phone business they can watch over and manage AA the same way Henry can manage his baseball operations?? Ridiculous.

Here is the problem. Would Beeston fire AA?? Probably not. Even if he did would he hire someone better?? My guess is he would require "veteran" presence at the GM position and hire an even worse dinasour... who knows. Maybe Cito!! (well probably not, but nothing would ever surprise me about this sick, sorry franchise). Second is AA totally indepentent?? Could he of stopped the 2010 Cito goodbye tour?? Could he of fired Murphy whenever he wanted to?? I don't think so. Maybe I'm wrong but just a feeling I have. Finally good organizations have savy, passionate, characters... at least semi-literate on baseball matters two rungs above the GM. It goes Owner->president->GM Boston has Henry, Luchino, Cherington, with Bill James as consultant. Toronto has "Rogers suits" -> Beeston, AA with Cito as consultant. John Henry is a numbers genius who has read every Bill James book, and hired Bill James.... in our corner we have some nameless Rogers suits. Luchino vs. Beeston -- Luchino is another super-smart numbers guy who has a say about the baseball moves. Cherington vs. AA -- main difference in my mind is Cherington has mentors, AA does not. Bill James vs. Cito Gaston... Jesus. Bill james vs. Cito Gaston. My god. Henry/Luchino/Cherington/James vs. Rogers/Beeston/AA/Cito How in gods name are we suppose to compete?? Really?? The only thing that can change is fire Beeston. New president with new inner circle. New GM with the same president won't make a difference.

I know a couple of people in the New York, Boston area that called this exactly. Really just by looking at typical aging patterns. The mainstream projections I saw had this as a low to mid 80s win team, out of the playoffs. The individual projections using things like Pecota weren't impressive. I thought the team was stacked "if healthy" but that is the elephant in the room. It was an old declining team that had hardly any chance of being healthy.

Tell this to Theo Epstein. Go up to him. Tell him to concentrate on renovations to Wrigley and butt out of baseball operations.

Everything Beeston has done amounts to lipstick on a pig. I said this in my last reply to someone else but the ultimate lipstick on a pig is a new stadium.... when a franchise gets a new stadium it is an amazing cosmetic addition... and ussually raises interest for a couple of years. But the effect can wear off very quickly. Look at Marlins this year. Grass, uniforms, buffalo, stadium renovations. Cool lipstick. But if the Jays win 70 this year and next there will be a huge crash in interest and revenue no matter how much lipstick Beeston puts on his pig. Beeston is phoney baloney. The four other owners in the east all have very strong "wheeler dealer" type backgrounds. Beeston is the fat, dumb, but slightly charming town board guy who made amazing renovations to his town in 2005 using revenue from these sub prime mortgage bonds he bought.

Absolutey not. If aging didn't exist, and math didn't exist then you would be correct. Every player AA acquired during the off season has performed slightly lower then expected given what we know about aging and math. 1. Baseball players peak at 27... it might be 26, it might be 28, but it's not 31. Definately not 35. 2. Math: lots of ways to use math. But it can be used to analyze things we don't understand. We don't understand exactly why players get injured. But if you count the number of past injuries it is a good predictor of future injuries... even seemingly unrelated injuries. Lawrie and Reyes are not valueable players because they will likely never stay healthy. Doubt they will ever play a combined 160 games in a season for the Jays. We have a front office who basically has rejected logic, thinking, numbers, theories of human health. They only know is hair cuts, suits, hand shakes, and phoney baloney. Lipstick on a pig... it's still a pig. Cool "classic" uniforms, grass, cool area to hang out in centerfield. Very temporary minimum effect on long term health of the franchise... Take a look at the "new stadium" effect. Marlins had a great new stadium... way more valueble "cosmetic" addition then "grass" or "classic uniforms"... the effect has allready worn off. There will be a huge, huge crash in interest and attendance no matter how much lipstick Beeston puts on the pig.

There is also the option of EE at third. I'm a big believer in looking at these decisions in terms of team runs scored vs. team runs against. I know a lot of people immediately cringe at the thought of EE at third. And that's fine but you have to look at it this way... how many runs would EE cost at third vs. Mr. X?? how many runs is EE above Mr. X on offense?? So this depends what the options are. Given the current options EE would probably be 30 to 40 runs better on offense. Is he going to cost that much on defense?? I suppose it's possible. He could be 20 runs below average vs. a real good defensive guy being 20 runs above. However before dismissing it out of hand it's good to play around with some numbers (yes they are only approximations but still helpful).

Assuming he is drug free that may be all they can do... I really hate Beeston. He just seems to be a delusional old guy. He's in his late 60s, rich as heck, easy life schmoozing, schmoozing, schmoozing... no real work. His only concern is aging. Age got Ted Rogers when he was just a few years older then Beeston now. Beeston is probably clinically depressed about his mortality... I am sure he has completely erased the concept of aging from his mind. Dickey at 39?? Bhuerle at 35?? Bautista at 33?? EE at 31?? Reyes (short stop) at 31?? These guys will be splendid. At the top of their game. MVP candidates all of them. They will out play any group of 25-28 year olds on the planet. Just like the beest. The Beest will be as good in his 70s as he was in his 40s. The beest might not crack 100 but he will come damn close. The Beest will be drinking champagne and winning championships for the next 30 years. Nobody gets old. Math and science isn't true. We all live happily ever after. Our friends never make mistakes. Life is wonderful. The Beest doesn't live in the real world anymore.

That is what is so frustrating. Teams can win without a great bullpen. I think a major league GM should spend months looking at the characteristics of great teams... concentrating on great teams in his own division. He should praise those teams and their characteristics in every press conference. Only by admiring and respecting your betters can you join them. AA and Beeston never respect the Rays and Red Sox... it's always "our scouts..." blah, blah, blah, "aggressive athletes..." blah, blah, blah, "our scouts really like Bonifacio..." blah, blah, blah, "we admire the Angels" blah, blah, blah, "Arecibia looks good in jeans...", blah, blah, speed and defence up the middle, blah, blah, blah, bullpen power arms. It would be nice to see AA give an intelligent respectful analysis of the red sox, mentioning their success without a bullpen, mentioning on base percentage, and mentioning how they retooled without giving up any young player of significance. And mention their relative strength at the "consultant" position (Bill James vs. Cito Gaston). If AA and Beeston are to stupid or to proud to admire the red sox then they both should resign this afternoon.

The frustrating thing is that the red sox retooled without giving up a single young player... so now are looking unbelievable. Bogaerts?? This is the kind of player I dreamed AA would be able to develop. Napoli, Victorino, Dempster, Gomes, Carp, Uereha, Hanrahan (didn't work out) for almost zero in young players. getting rid of contracts and getting young players in August last year. Getting us to develop a manager and coaching staff for them. Avoiding duds (they had an opportunity to bid for the Marlins but didn't... maybe they knew something??). Great, great 12 months. Paul Beeston, incompentent as they come. The only thing he and his fat Ninja have done is develop a coaching staff for the best organization in baseball, the Boston Red Sox. Mr. Paul Beeston, if things are the same Oct 1st this year, please lick Larry Luchino's boots. Resign, and hope that Rogers can find a Luchino (but don't help them try to find your replacement).

Beeston is a sucker. Red sox, As, Rays, Cubs, Astros, Mets love this guy. A lot of other teams are run (at the top) by wheeler dealer business guys and wall street guys. Perhaps terrible people, who have no friends (or more accurately have friends but will stab them in the back) and are driven by winning and only winning, incompetence is punished. Beeston is just as selfish as these guys, he doesn't care about society at large (us the fans) but cares deeply about his close friends (such as Cito Gaston). He's a politician. Would never punish a friend for a mistake. Instead Beeston tries to change reality to erase his friend's mistake (we will next year, or the year after, or the year after...). Whe wheeler dealers love Beeston. He is the sucker on the other end of their trades. Beeston isn't to different from the guy who ended up with all the sub prime mortgage bonds the moment they went bad. AA is just a lap dog for Beeston.

Beeston is a sucker. Red sox, As, Rays, Cubs, Astros, Mets love this guy. A lot of other teams are run (at the top) by wheeler dealer business guys and wall street guys. Perhaps terrible people, who have no friends (or more accurately have friends but will stab them in the back) and are driven by winning and only winning, incompetence is punished. Beeston is just as selfish as these guys, he doesn't care about society at large (us the fans) but cares deeply about his close friends (such as Cito Gaston). He's a politician. Would never punish a friend for a mistake. Instead Beeston tries to change reality to erase his friend's mistake (we will next year, or the year after, or the year after...). Whe wheeler dealers love Beeston. He is the sucker on the other end of their trades. Beeston isn't to different from the guy who ended up with all the sub prime mortgage bonds the moment they went bad. AA is just a lap dog for Beeston.

Not whenever they want. Only in Rule V draft that takes place in December. Any guys with a few years of minor league experience and not on the 40 man can be drafted (can't remember exact years, differs for highschool and college draftees I believe). Catch is player has to be kept in the majors all the next year. Or be offerred back to the other team. If he is put on the 40 man then has to be removed for some reason another team can grab him then.

Yeah... I find a lot of posters don't respect these type of thoughts. I had expected AA to build a great farm system. I looked forward to watching young Jays come up and develop. Really haven't seen any of that yet. I love watching young players come through the system. MLB is also a development stage. It is exciting seeing a young guy come up and watching him get better year after year. That is just not happening. Young players are being jettisoned for old folks... those that stay aren't developing. If you complain about it you're labeled a troll and told in a snappy one sentence way... "Incomprehensible post mate. Take a pill. Watch the birds and enjoy." Stand in line. Drink a labatt's. Schmooze with the big wigs. Enjoy 80 wins. Don't pipe up. The Beest knows best. (Edit: actually been a long time since "Drink a Labatt's" would of been encouraged by Blue Jays suits... now it's spend 300 bucks a month on internet/cable/smart phone packages. Longily miss the days when "Chill out and drink a Labatt's would of been the coorporate line".)

Maybe not. Jays could of pulled TDa back and offerred another package. But it's the art of trading. Complicated scenarios arise. If you go to buy a sack of potatoes, and they look lke they are to ripe and might go rotten in a week... you'll ask for a fresher sack of potatoes... but maybe as you negotiate the price you find a way to get the original potatoes too. Maybe they'll be OK.

I don't want TDA to be hurt. Don't get me wrong. It just seemed a high price to pay. Just curious whether the initial talks just involved TDa and then an injury flag happened and the mets asked for more.

Learn something every day. I will be phoning Wilner tomorrow with trade Lawrie for Brandon Belt suggestion. Move Belt to third. I will be armed with the Mike Squires example when he tries to argue with me about it. Thanks.

Good point. I like the player too. And even at this level he would be a fun peice of a championship team in the Wakefield like way... Just sucks that we paid for a front line epic legend... not a cool 4th starter with a trick pitch.

He's not useless... but not worth the price we paid. Unless he goes nuts for the next year and a half... it could happen and would be nice to see. But so what if he performs at a Ryan Dempster level?? ... Would of been nicer to just get Dempster without paying in prospects. Or kept the prospects and used the Dickey money to start an advanced research center to attach Romero's head correctly. Or kept the prospects and just waited around and sorted through Hutch/Stroman/.... Or kept the prospects and waited a year for Syndegard to be able to go 12-10 4.40... I guess what I am saying is he has to be elite to be worth the price... not just for 2 starts... but for the next 50. Won't take 50 starts for me to jump on the bandwagon... but not ready to jump on after 2 either.

Gotta feel for a guy who atleast once a year has to explain why a left handed thrower can't play second... or third, or short for that matter. I know atleast once a year... probably more someone suggested moving Snider or Lind to another infield position. I mean not only have to explain that a transition from 1st (or left) to 3rd or 2nd would be really hard... but have to start with the whole left handed thing.