Olerud363

If Beltran claims the Astros were "behind the times" in 2017 doesn't this indicate the Yankees and other teams were doing it before that?? This is starting to remind me of the steroid era... after offense started exploding in 1994 I remember just wondering why weren't the Blue Jays having these magical seasons with guys chasing 50 homers?? Of course in 97 and especially 98 with the arrival of first Clemens then Canseco we started to see a little "magic"... Who knows, who was on what, but guys like Green and Delgado seemed to be behind their peer group until 98. In this era we may of been early to the "magic"... does anybody not think the Jose Bautista and the man in white deserve a second look?? It will be interesting to see if offensive trends start to decline next season, or continue. Maybe it will be kind of like the Steroid era where it took several years for offense to decline, after some high profile guys started getting caught, actually it didn't seem that offense really minimized until 2013/2014 after Braun, Melky, A-Rod's dealer squealed I think... May be same thing here... it will go on the another decade until the 4th or 5th cheating scandal.

can anybody measure his fatness and launch angle??? not that the former matters too much... VGJ 2020 WAR = 8-7*abs(Launch_angle_factor) - 1.5*abs(fatness_factor) Launch_angle_factor is between -1 and 1, where optimal launch angle is 0. Fatness_factor is also between -1 and 1 where optimal fatness is 0 If he is still fat and an extreme ground ball hitter he will repeat his 0.4 or whatever WAR. On the other hand if he gets too light or hits too many pop-ups (makes too extreme of a corrections) his WAR will still be low. I read about Shaw having a bad season, maybe because he overdid his launch angle. It will be ironic if Vlad becomes a slim 205 pound popup hitter... (That seems like something that would happen to us Blue Jay fans).

Olerud wasn't signed to a long term contract at the time, but in trading him for Person, the Jays lost 30 career WAR... You could argue that the Olerud trade was by far the worst of all time, if you reasonably assume you could of extended him a couple of years, if you treated him half decent. Olerud was 20+ WAR ahead of Carter, Canseco, Willie Greene and David Segue between 97 and 99. You could argue that the Olerud trade/lack of extension/commitment to Joe Carter cost 2 playoff spots in 98 and 99.

It looks like the game you were referring to was in 1989, just before the Jays traded Jessie Barfield for him... Jessie Barfield was pretty under-rated... he had a couple Josh Donaldson like seasons, and another couple of solid 4 WAR seasons. I know some people get sick of talking about the past, but it's fascinating looking back at some of this stuff with the perspective of modern Analytics. It could be argued Barfield was the Jays best or second best player at the time... certainly Bell and Moseby were way worse by that point. But at the time I don't remember much fuss over the trade... Barfield was viewed as the third best guy in that outfield and Lieter was suppose to have a really good arm... However Leiter's minor league stats are terrible... though he eventually was good for a few years.

I agree they won't use him as a post-opener... I still think they may use him occasionally as an opener, and limit his innings for a while. This doesn't preclude him eventually being Cole a few years down the line.

Pitching patterns are totally changing... I think they need to assign the number of innings they want Pearson to throw this year, then, assuming they think he is ready, figure out how they can get most of those innings in the majors... it might involve going really lite on him until mid may, call him up, but build his arm strength in the majors. Have him open a bit.. gradually build strength.

I wonder if they'd actually use him as an opener every second start... I believe they did that with him in the minors.

He was the greatest hitting prospect ever and that was suppose to translate into being a great hitter, of the David Ortiz, Frank Thomas, Miguel Cabrerra type. It's weird how everybody is complaining about his fatness and defense where that is like a 1 WAR swing. I know I'm a broken record but the difference between the optimistic version of Vlad's baserunning and defense (Hefty boy who just barely gets by) and what it actually was (fat-assed disaster) is like 1 WAR. The difference between the hitting people thought they'd have (generational bat) and what we got (ground ball maniac who chased way more than expected) is like 5 or 6 WAR. He's only 20... he hit kind of like rookie Miguel Cabrera, he might hit like a maniac next year and hopefully he will... But his fate will be decided based on hitting... fatness has a small effect on total value...

There was book published in 2013, Great Expectations, which portrayed Beeston as being heavily involved in this trade. Beeston was at his other board meetings (Loblaws meeting) and was taking calls from AA to discuss the trade. Reyes was Beestons favourite player, and he liked Bonficio too, Beeston was ecstatic that he'd get two speedy lead off men, and create a track team. I believe at the time, some of the more progressive members of the board, maybe yourself and a few others, pointed out that the defensive metrics, on Reyes and Bonfacio were not that great for middle infielders, and it dragged down their WAR a bit. That combined with injury issues, meant that Beeston Track Team analysis projected Reyes and Bonifacio to combine for 11 WAR. Analytics which included defense and injury risk probably projected them for half that. Reality projected them for 1/4 of that.

It's not unheard of for high first round college pitchers to come fast if they are good. Aaron Nola, Chris Sale... he's 22 not 19.

They could do some creative stuff with Manoah and Pearson and who will be 22 and 23 on opening day. Roberto Osuna was less accomplished and 2 years younger when he became the Jays closer... so could these guys provide 100-120 good innings?? I believe Pearson essentially "opened" every second start... why not do something like that with these two?? Would it work?? If called up after the mid april service time deadline, would 100 innings still be a waste of service time ?? Would there be issues filling up all the innings if you use 2 roster spots on 100 inning "starter/openers"??

Under because he won't get enough playing time. If it's over it's probably a really good thing. I can't see a scenario where Fisher is playing terrible but gets enough at bats for 200 strike outs. If he's as bad as last year the experiment ends eventually... If he is better than last year and half decent, but not a breakout he still platoons and shares time. It's only if he's doing pretty good, that he gets enough playing time to strike out 200 times... And yes, he could strike out 200 times in 430 at bats... but it's unlikely he even gets 430 at bats if that's the deal. 200 strikeouts would only occur in a 500+ at bat sort of decent season.

Just imagine if there was WAR in Ash's time Olerud (57.3 career WAR) for Person (6.5) Joe Carter 1997 contract extension (coming off of negative WAR season) Roger Clemens (coming off of 10 and 8 WAR seasons) for David Wells (4 and 4) Green for Mondesi (6 WAR for 2) I'm being a bit unfair, because there were contract issues, but I can't imagine any thing like those trades would get made in this day and age.

I think Steamer and Depth Charts predictions both have Tellez ahead of Aguilar in 2020 (like 1.3 WAR to 0.3) On second glance a lot of that is playing time... Tellez still ahead though.

The reaction to the trade was really weird and part of me thinks it was as simple as people judging SWR by ERA. If you look deeper into the peripherals SWR = 2012 Thor... but a year younger. What he has done as an 18 year old is incredible. In Dunedin peripherals were exactly as Low-a peripherals predicted... but ERA was under 3 vs over 4... so looked a lot of better on the first glance of the stats page. Of course there may be deeper reasons why people don't think 18 year old SWR = 19 Year old Thor... like maybe his fastball is "only" 95, and they don't project too much growth since he's already big for an 18 year old... though I don't remember reading anything like that.

I concede that maybe his fat stomach, changes the swing a bit, and makes it harder to launch... if so then getting rid of the fatness may help a lot... On the other hand, what it, instead of putting so much effort into nutrition and fitness, they put all that effort into swing mechanics and launch angle ?? Don't get me wrong... a little nutrition and fitness... but instead of the fatness watch, he gets to enjoy his life, enjoy grammas cooking... maintain himself at 260... But every day he is taking batting practice, with the greatest hitting coach's the Jays can find, with 100 sensors in his bat, analyzing everything. They assign a team of experts to analyze all of Jayson Heywards career at bats, and figure out why he could never solve his problems. They assign a team of experts to analyze the swings of the great fatties of all time, the Fielders... Cabrera..

Apr. VGJ WAR in 4 scenarios Fat - bad launch angle - 0.5 Skinny - bad launch angle - 1.5 Fat - good launch angle - 5.0 Skinny - good launch angle - 6.0 Assumptions - Skinny Vlad gains 1+ WAR for baserunning and defense. Assumptions - Launch Angle Vlad gains 4 or 5 WAR for hitting. Reference - Miguel Cabrera fangraphs page, particularly 2003-2016 era, compared to 2017-2019. Plenty of fatness and bad baserunning most of the time, but can get 5 or 6 WAR with good hitting.

I remember a while back some guy posted something like "Hey... looking for a Jays board. Trying out a few. Just interested in what's going on here" then a few days later "Hey. Decided on another board. Looks like you guys have your own thing going on here. That's cool but not quite what I'm looking for" Can't remember exactly where it was... but it was funny.

That's a long term cultural issue. It would be great if there are more threads. Even silly threads sometimes... then the people can decide. Popular threads will rise to the top. Stupid threads will be buried. However, this site, as any enterprise should be, is ruled by those who have contributed financially or administratively. It is their right to mold the site into a form that pleases them. I believe the site could attract more people, with a different culture... however those who rule may not want more people.

I don't get what it is with this board and the aging curve lately. You may not like Rowdy Tellez and Gurriel, but they are 25... they will likely be a bit better next year and are headed to their best 2 or 3 years... replacing them with say, Curtis Granderson and EE would add 15 million to the payroll and no wins. I mean now that Granderson has fallen off a cliff I assume no one would really want him... but if you take a mid to late 30 somethings that has the same WAR as Gurriel, maybe Granderson last year, that guy will be getting worse, maybe significantly worse.

A system where you always choose EE over the Tellez's of the world would improve the team by a fractional win amount in the near term and reduce the chance of finding breakouts to 0%. This system would also add 20 million to the payroll and age the team. No more Bautista, EE, or Smoak like breakouts. Just sign these players in their mid to late 30s for millions in their decline phase.

I know I am a broken record here but it's mostly the hitting that's the issue. Yonder Alvarez would of been just as bad defensively and baserunning if given full time play... and he would of been ahead by 6 or 7 WAR just on hitting.

I'd prefer to find the next Bautista, EE, or Smoak. Nobody has really explained how you find the next breakout, if you give up on all the 25 year old struggling players. What's the system? I guess if you discard Drury and Tellez, you can argue you can just pick up equivalent players for free, who have just as much chance of a breakout. Still, I'd prefer they use 2020 to keep searching for breakouts.

If Vladimir Guerrero JR, doesn't have a long term swing mechanic issue, that should be 4 WAR right there... If Jansen's babip rebounds and Mcguire's doesn't regress too much that's another couple of WAR. If Biggio and Bichette play 150 games... that's another 3 or 4. If Gurriel can keep healthy another WAR or 2. I guess it's quite easy to see a scenario where Vlad, Bo, Biggio Gurriel and the catchers have 15+ WAR... then even without other upgrades you get close to the 20.... On the other hand if Vlad has a long term ground ball issue, Gurriel can't keep healthy, the Catcher's can't hit at all, it goes the other way.

I'm not sure what projection system has Edwin at a 127+ OPS either... The only one I could find was zips... which had him declining in 2020 to Rowdy Tellez 2019 level... however they also projected a decline in 2019 which didn't happen... still I'd be surprised if a projection system had Edwin above his career averages at age 37.