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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    That's pretty interesting. I got the first 2 right, but called Biggio and Gurriel wrong .... Biggio and Gurriel are projected below their major league averages, so I guess their really bad 2017 minor league seasons are still dampening their projections. As a human, I'm very smart and know there was a very specific reason for those bad seasons, then they fixed the reason and improved, so their major league averages are a better estimate going forward. The machine (if created properly) has seen every minor league season in existence and (should) know how to properly weight a bad minor league season better than I do.
  2. Olerud363
    Average is dumb. Just present lifetime on base and life time slugging. Or combine them with one of the fancier stats that's weights on base percentage a bit more. Lourdes is better than Hernandez probably. Life time stats a bit better, over 162 would likely be a bit better. Here are the rankings of best to worst hitter using common sense (instead of batting average) Vlad - over 162 games would likely still be best HIGHER RISK (potential obesity induced ground ball rate is not fully understood). Bo - lower risk? Biggio - over 162 games would probably be 3rd - HIGHER RISK - can't hit fastball according to Kieth Law, just something to look out for Lourdes - lower risk? Hernandez - breakout HIGHER RISK - breakouts over 40 games can't be taken totally seriously Kirk - Vlad lite - HIGHER RISK - lite as in hitting cieling, but just as heavy and shorter, obesity induced ground ball issues could be factor Rowdy - not sure Grichuk - is what he is Shaw - lower because of assumption he lost it... but if he didn't lose it he is above Grichuk Panik - gamer, heart, soul,
  3. Olerud363
    Surprisingly a lot of posts about the old age pension. Seems they (the Albertans) think you should work like hell for 40 years until you are done, then you get the pension. They don't like it when Justin gives money to environment/alternative energy/welfare (for people under 60)/ money should be given to the pipeline or the pension, no handouts for the young people.
  4. Olerud363
    My relatives from Alberta post mems about Justin (bad), oil (good), rigs (good), snowmobiles (good), old age pension (good), tools (good), pipelines (good), protesters (bad).
  5. Olerud363
    I think for the most part I would be totally OK with a .370 hitter winning MVP Ichiro style. Like a .310 hitter with a 50/50 bb/k rate that is good defensively and got lucky. Not sure I am OK with .280 hitter with horrible bb/k getting lucky enough to hit .370 over 50 games get it. Weird thing is people will discount the luck because he did it "twice" in a row. But he didn't. He was lucky over 160 games or so, only played 120 last year.
  6. Olerud363
    Interesting. Do the voters look at WAR or are they just getting smarter?? If they aren't smart but look at WAR how could Anderson not win?? He'd be the winner by traditional stats and WAR. If they are just smart and don't look at WAR, but sort of know the things to look for, then they might clue in that he isn't really a .380 hitter. Weird though that he's now hit .350 for 1 entire year. I assume he hits .280 next year.
  7. Olerud363
    Scouts can't really predict with certainty so and so won't play such and such a position and they know it. The algorithm has always been play a guy at the tougher position for as long as possible. The version of Vlad that is a rock solid 230 pound lightning cat that hit that spring training home run in Montreal would of been passable at third. When he showed up stay puft style for the second time at summer camp he made the decision for them. But it's pretty common to play a guy at the tougher position as long as possible. They did the same thing with Lourdes.
  8. Olerud363
    What? That is weird. They didn't need to put a hit out on him. Should of just had him take a few hours of "outfield" practice one would of been bound to hit him in the face eventually.
  9. Olerud363
    I forgot that Melvin existed. Melvin. Why could you not hit just a little in late 2016 ? Grant may even of forgot that B.J. changed his name to Melvin not Justin, so it is totally understandable why he made that mistake.
  10. Olerud363
    I honestly have no clue. I am curious is there was ever a point where all of those three and Gurriel, Biggio, and Hernandez would of been ranked around the same. In Retrospect it's obvious -- Gurriel was from a Cuban legacy and obviously had the genetics, the attitude the "stuff" even though his minor league numbers and first season were mediocre. Hernandez may have looked like Fisher in the minors, Hernandez may also of had trouble in the outfield at many times, but the grade 70 power and good attitude was always apparent. Some say Biggio couldn't hit the fastball, and the strike out rate at New Hamphire could never play in the Majors, but obvious in retrospect he had the eye of an eagle that everyone should of recognized. Interested in the process of finding players. Do you just have to randomly take 6 b prospects, sort through them and half will work out?? Or can they be identified earlier. I think it is the former.
  11. Olerud363
    Grant's projected reply - "I don't know what your obsession is. The projection system was down on McKinney after 2018, but before that they were much higher. Try again." OK https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2018-zips-projections-new-york-yankees/ After 2017 the zips projection system thought he would hit .239 .300 .390 or so. The projection systems don't usually differ by much, so can't see that any of them projected McKinney to be Justin Upton.
  12. Olerud363
    I know. It is not smart to do this and I don't gain from it, nobody gains from it.. but still https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-toronto-blue-jays/ I won't look them all up but based on 2018 data, Zips projected McKinney to hit .228 .295 .400 or so. His top comparable was not Justin Upton It was Matt Browser. Who?? Some guy who never appeared in the majors apparently https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bowser001mat Can't see there is any evidence projection systems ever thought McKinney was Justin Upton.
  13. Olerud363
    Just give the top team a man on second to lead off every inning.
  14. Olerud363
    Valid point. Still I want to see him over 150 games. I want to see all of them over 150 games. Hilarious how even on good nights like last night Vladdy still has a 60% ground ball rate. He was a triple away from the cycle. I want to see him hit for the cycle with an 80% ground ball rate. 1. Triple grounded down the right field line launch angle -8 2. Ground out to short launch angle -18 3. Single grounded to right opposite the shift launch angle -15 4. 115 mph HR left field launch angle 18 5. 118 mph double pulverized past the 3rd basemen launch angle -2 Stats on the night Weight - 272 Ground ball rate - 80% Launch angle - worm killing Cycle - yes
  15. Olerud363
    I would take it grudingly and remember that I made this deal when Vladdy hits 2023 (Jays) - .277 17 67 (released a la David Ortiz as it's been 5 years and the arb price doesn't make sense) 2024 (Red Sox) - .325 38 109 2040 - Holy f*** that fat guy lasted a long time as Red Sox DH. What team did he start with again? Have to guarantee me 6, 90 win seasons before I take that. A lot of fans probably wouldn't take it.
  16. Olerud363
    Reconvene early October 2021. Covid ball is too short to make that conclusion. Back in the day I used to follow the 90s Jays (probably didn't guess I try not to ramble about it too much) My favourite player was John Olerud (probably didn't guess either) Around game 45 of the 91 season he looked terrible - .203 ..298 .349 Round game 45 of the 92 season looked terrible as well. Recovered in both cases to put up decent years Then went bananas in 93. Then around game 50 of the 95 season looked awful hitting .230 again. But recovered to almost hit .300. Then they sat him for Jacob Brumfield and sent him to the Mets, but he rebounded hitting .350 again and put up 58 WAR for his career, but there were many moments he looked as bad if not worse than Vladimir jr. But they always said the son of a bitch would hit and he did. I think it will be the same for VGJ but he needs 150 games. He hasn't put up his 1.250 OPS months yet, but he will put up a couple in 2021.
  17. Olerud363
    I would give him 7 years 14 million. With a 5 million dollar bonus for Kirk each year Vladdy G. JR, get's a .900+ OPS That way Kirk has incentive to work with Vladdy to get his hitting going They can both be fat as f*** if they can figure out a way to get their fat hips rotated properly and the ball in the air. Or if it is easier they can go on weight loss together and help each other out with that.
  18. Olerud363
    Are you comparing AL East to NL West?? Colorado, Arizona, San Fran, Sandiego vs Baltimore, NY, Boston, Toronto Not going to bother looking up the numbers, but will say Colorado is so extreme it evens out for the slight hitting parks in the East.
  19. Olerud363
    Not sure where you'd find data. It seems like the trend has changed subtly. They are pulling the starter quick and then the putting the reliever in. Or maybe not. I seem to remember it happening both ways this year. The other day they went Ray/Merryweather instead of Merryweather/Ray Does it even matter which way it is?? I guess if Ray shits himself you want to know that before wasting Merryweather. On the other hand if you want Ray to get some wins with low innings wouldn't you rather it go Merryweather/Ray. That way Ray can get the win with 4 and 1/3 and a giant settlement in arbitration when he goes 11-4.
  20. Olerud363
    It's almost impossible to find a comparable for him. Most guys that can get on base at a .420 clip in the low minors don't play catcher. And if they do they are sometimes uncatchered (Biggio, Delgado). Take Joe Mauer and make him a 5 foot 8 mexican... what would happen?? He'd probably be on the radar a couple of years late, but other than that he'd be Joe Mauer in the minors and force himself to the majors anyway. What would happen after that?? How the hell would I know. Not sure there has ever been a 5' 8" 260 pound catcher who gets on base at .420 in the low minors.
  21. Olerud363
    Didn't they make some adjustments a couple of weeks ago then give up on them when he went 4/30 ?? Maybe needs to watch video of EE, Trout, young Pujols and other big legends.
  22. Olerud363
    Since everyone is bringing up old stuff again here it is.... I was completely wrong on Billy Mckinney. I tried to be fair to him but it looks like he won't even reach the Fred Lewis (low end) comparable. The funny thing was I was just trying to be fair to Grant, but at the same time point out how silly the Justin Upton comparison was. In the end (at least with the Jays) McKinney came no where near even the low end projection I was thinking. Lesson: If you are trying to find a comparable to a mediocre prospect make sure you choose a guy who has 0 career WAR and didn't do s***, that's what most often happens.
  23. Olerud363
    Just for comparision Frank Thomas 1990 - Frank Thomas 2007 - Vlad Guerrero JR 2018 - Vlad Guerrero JR 2020 - Guys change over the years, it is only natural. Frank Thomas by the time he got to us from Chicago was a bit bigger and no longer had the bat speed to be a .320 hitter. Still a bit of power but not 40 homer power. Same with Vladdy, the younger Vladdy JR would of been a .320 hitter no problem, but by the time he got to us from New Hamphsire he was bigger and the bat slower. Like old Frank still can get one up in the stands once in a while but no longer the cobra he was in his 2018 prime.
  24. Olerud363
    Couldn't be to more opposite catching prospects physically or stats wise.
  25. Olerud363
    It still dumbfounding. Guys like Travis Snider or Lawrie had warts and still it was a surprise when they failed. Vlad hit .402 with power in double a. Vlad has a 19-12 bb-k ratio in aaa. He struck-out 12 times in 39 games. Is it just fitness ?? Montreal game Completely different guy?? Looks solid, no gut, swing looks a bit quicker, maybe flatter, not as much an uppercut, explosive talent ready to destroy MLB... then he gains 30 pounds of slop and the swing looks a bit slower and loopier now. Or is it just me?? Fitness and swing gurus what do you think?
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