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LGBJ29

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Everything posted by LGBJ29

  1. LGBJ29
    Yeah I didn't get the chart at first either I needed to read the article for context. I'm sure there are even more factors at play such as success rate of the bunter and who is pitching as well. I think there are so many additional variables on both plays (bunt and swing away) that we can't draw the conclusion just based on the standard charts we find online that either a) bunting is always bad or bunting is great small ball. I find most on this board are either on one extreme or the other, but it's important to realize in certain circumstances we have less information available to us and standard graphs or our own bias isn't always the most accurate
  2. LGBJ29
    Yeah agreed it needs to be taken into account. You can get that by multiplying the bunt success rate by the % chance of scoring a run. I think that lowers the chance of scoring a run by about 6% in the bunt scenario which then brings the %chance of scoring a run right about equal. As you acknowledged uou then though need to factor in the hitter who is sacrificing himself. A below average hitter would bring the chances of scoring a run down in the swing away circumstance, above average hitter raises it. I found the bunt info here. It is from 2015, the most accurate and recent info I could find unfortunately, but still a good resource. https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2016/04/04/exploring-2015-bunts/
  3. LGBJ29
    Kevin Smith off to a slow start in New Hampshire 80 AB .188/.217/.313 24K 3BB
  4. LGBJ29
    To answer your first question, it does not take into account failed attempts, that is assuming a successful bunt. Also to your 20-30% point, a runner on second with nobody out has the highest sac success rate coming in close to 90% And yes, are you implying I tried to write "stop their fists" on purpose soldier?
  5. LGBJ29
    For sure, and with a real lineup I hope the trend doesn't continue
  6. LGBJ29
    I 100% agree with you guys on the PR and wasn't specifically calling you out or anything, more so the outrage in GDT's and what not
  7. LGBJ29
    The first scenario you gave above is exactly what he did Friday night (McKinney for Goins), and people are still mad about it. Do you have any examples for your second point? I haven't seen him bunt with any quality hitters at the plate yet, just people expecting him to.
  8. LGBJ29
    that's right, a man on second with no outs has higher expected run total than a man on 3rd with 1 out, however the % chance of scoring 1 run is about 6% higher with the man on third, and since it was bottom 9 with a tie game it was a fine move. It really makes no sense to be upset about that move. I feel like everyone here see's the run expectancy chart and just uses it as an absolute. Those charts are based on league average hitters, and there is a ton of variance depending on who is actually hitting. The expected runs fluctuate greatly on the hitter being asked to sacrifice himself, and also the players due up. So far Charlie has been bunting with guys like Urena, Hanson, McKinney and Maile. You can't take sub 50 wRC+ hitters and expect them to produce the same result as 100 wRC+ hitters. I don't have the numbers in front of me, nor do I know how to calculate them, but I'd be willing to bet the run expectancy and run% is higher to successfully bunt those players over rather than let a 50 wRC+ hitter swing away
  9. LGBJ29
    stomp their feet, autocorrect on my phone. There wasn't anything else you could pull from the post?
  10. LGBJ29
    The bunt is a mistake in a number of circumstances, but there are a lot of time where it mathematically makes sense. As much as everyone wants to stop their fists and say they hate every bunt they see, bunting the runner to 3rd successfully was mathematically the smart move and increased our chances of winning on Friday
  11. LGBJ29
    lol ok
  12. LGBJ29
    if tercet watched that at bat we're in for years of him telling us how bad Vlad is
  13. LGBJ29
    No way Teo! No Way
  14. LGBJ29
    get someone warm Sanchez is losing it
  15. LGBJ29
    Sanchez has been good a times but also inconsistent with his command. A ton of pitches he's overthrowing, and a ton he's not following through. He's missed a lot of pitches that haven't been close to the zone. That being said he's gotten a lot of swing a misses and weak contact
  16. LGBJ29
    Arizona and Texas switching from grass to turf? I didn't know this
  17. LGBJ29
    same actually. From hitters like Sogard and Hanson I don't mind the bunt. The expected runs changes in these situations depending on the quality of hitter sacrificing himself
  18. LGBJ29
    I actually havent been to a game yet, what are they serving for $5? I assume a 355mL can of domestic light beer?
  19. LGBJ29
    not with $5 beers
  20. LGBJ29
    Anyone else plan on going? Tickets are cheap, I got 3 in 220 for $50 each on the jays site. And with the $50 JFL19 is giving me tonight for Kyler Murray I essentially get to see Vlad's debut for free. *End Humble Brag
  21. LGBJ29
    You can't assume finger health, and Keuchel isn't getting anywhere near 30M per. I would take Keuchel at 3/60 (He probably wont even get that), over Sanchez at 5/60
  22. LGBJ29
    I voted no. Obviously the Shoemaker ACL was a freak incident, but being able to find a guy like him on the open market at 3.5M >>>>> committing 5 years to Sanchez's fingers. Guys like Keuchel going unsigned this long too. Him at 2-3 years over Sanchez's 5 easily for me.
  23. LGBJ29
    but what if there's another Socrates Brito out there?
  24. LGBJ29
    A history of making bets allows you to act as the house in an online forum? Get real, people make bets on here all the time, if a long standing member doesn't pay they'll get weeded out fast. Either make the bet or don't. Setting ridiculous terms is just a way to get out of it.
  25. LGBJ29
    I was thinking the same thing, in what world is he getting destroyed here
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