John_Havok

Last year didn’t have the AL east teams crushing every other division like paper. Right now WC 3 has a win percentage of .585. Would be either 94 or 95 wins. It could end up lower, but that would require Texas to crash hard while seeing nearly no improvement from any other team currently below them. One probably doesn’t happen without the other And yes, if I had to pick a team to fall out of the race, it would be Texas.

Noda with no power though. That decreases his overall value by a fair margin given his lack of defensive usefulness.

Pitch clock violation for too long of an ovation? No ump would be that stupid would they?

No doubt. the Bautista “ no home town discount” decision to let him walk was the best decision made in the past 10 seasons probably regarding letting a guy walk. Thing is…Bo is probably the better bet to be great and remain great-ish over a long term deal. Vlad isn’t. Vlad definitely has more marketing presence and sway in Toronto and across Canada vs Bo for reasons that really don’t matter, but rightly or wrongly could certainly be taken into account by a front office on deciding who to sign. It be monumentally stupid to do that instead of going after the guy who’s going more likely to help your team win, but…FOs do have to take that into account at least somewhat in their decision making process.

Who would you feel more confortable hitching your wagon to if you had to pick one? and why?

It's not because they were minor league parks - it's because he knew how to hit fly balls to his pull side regularly back then. It could be as simple as Vlad being "over-prepared" by the analytics and is suffering from analysis paralysis. Look at his ST games... he just went out there and was "see ball-hit ball" oriented without worrying about the scouting reports of the pitcher he was facing or what their tendencies were. Maybe his brain just isnt wired for to take in all that info and transfer it into a coherent plan at the plate. THat kind of approach probably doesnt work for everyone, though it probably works wonders for certain guys. His injuries probably have a bit to do with it too, but maybe once healthy the hitting coach and strategist just need to take a step back from Vlad and just let him grip it and rip it for a while.

I think we've seen Bo's floor and Vlad'd floor. Bo's is better. We're seeing Bo's ceiling right now likely, though there is at least a chance his D improves a bit over the next few seasons. Bo has that massive inner drive to be better. Vlad had that for a while, but I think he lost it a bit and needs to get it back.

Probably need 3rd in the division for a playoff spot, though 4th could even get in if the AL West shits the bed. Looks like Texas and Houston gonna make it though. I'd bet the playoffs are going to be 3 from the East, the s***** Central winner, and 2 from the West. Probably going to need 95 wins to be a WC team I think

That average does not make my dick move.

Would sure go a long way to help the pen that's for sure. Even if Bowden can be a starter that's better than Manoah right now that would be amazing.

If he's running elite EVs, the babip can almost be justified, but I suspect that's not the case given his lack of power. Anyone know where a guy can get minor league EV numbers in a leaderboard fashion rather than clicking on individual games at baseballsavant ?

It's a complicated question because if you think about absolute talent ceiling, Vlad wins. If he pulled his head out of his ass he SHOULD be able to hit like 2021 Vlad did fairly consistently. That's a guy I want for the next 10 years. But in real world ceiling...Bo wins. Bo has a higher ceiling but that's largely due to the position he plays. With even modest improvement on defense... he's a 7 fWAR+ guy at his peak. 150 wrc+ bat with even average SS defense is money in the bank. I dont think he'll ever be elite D, but maybe even slightly above average is well within the realm of possibility. The downside of Vlad... well... we're seeing it. Tremendously skilled bat to ball tendencies have him swinging at garbage he should swing at and prevents his power from playing up to where it should. 2-3 fWAR floor though simply because when he does contact the ball, the EVs are savage. Usefull player, but not a guy you sign to a 10 year deal hoping you get more ceiling and less floor. Bo's downside... probably 3.5-5 fWAR. His bat is prone to going into streaks where the babip gods torment him and he'll probably never walk alot. But because of his hit tool and power his offensive floor is right around 120 wRC+. That's probably even low given that his worst season output is the COVID shortened 2020 when he put up... 120. any full season has been 122 and 129. He has a higher floor and a higher chance of playing near his ceiling IMO. Vlads ceiling right now is more of a dream than a reality. Bo's ceiling is actually kind of in view.

Stroman just threw a CG 1-hit shutout against the Rays. f*** the Rays.

Now it's the walk rates going through the roof. HR rates coming down

LOL, probably more of a "next year hopefully if he's not terrible" kind of thing. The drop in OF defense from literally anyone on the roster except maybe Kirk....to Horwitz would be substantial.

That's actualyl down from the 30% rate he was rocking on May 5th. Here's an updated chart from the one i posted may 5th

Pretty much crap with the bat. Excellent defensively though.

Sure, because that’s what they know the drooling mouth-breather audience wants to hear

Yep.

May 28 Vladdy - 1 Point Bichette - 1 Point -mphenhef Chapman - 2 Points Varsho - 2 Points Springer - 2 Points - Jonn Belt - 3 Points - Spanky Kirk - 4 Points - JaysAllMighty, Dylan Biggio - 5 Points - John_Havok Merrifield - 5 Points Off the bench: 10 Points

Yeah, one consistency with most of their lineup is crushing heart of the plate, and really sucking at the shadow. It’s like if their brain is telling them it’s going to be heart, sell out and yank it. Their pull rate as a team is 41% centre is 36%. Only 23% oppo. Jays as a comparison…38, 36, 26. 3% doesn’t sound like a lot when you’re talking pull rate vs oppo, but when you add that up over even 2 months of a season, that’s quite a few runs., especially hen you add in their 40% fly ball rate vs the Jays 36%. Thing is, people are going to look at these numbers and think the Jays are bad when that’s not the case, they’re well above average in nearly all important hitting numbers that are publicly available..it’s just the Rays are in another universe

It would just be nice to have 1 lefty reliever who can miss bats

Not from me, pitching is the problem overall. Situationally there’s always times where a bat fails, or whatever, but overall issues on the team right now stem from the pitching being wildly inconsistent

Well they’re already slowing down…wrc+ of 148 for April May it’s only 129…

Could be very well versed in pitch tendencies …I dunno. I’m not hearing any trash cans being banged or hitters glancing to the dugouts or 3b coaches for signals. Electronic stealing of pitch comm could be done in theory but you still have to then relay that info to the batter somehow, unless every Tampa batting helmet has a pitch comm receiver in the earpiece thats preset to the opposing teams devices and they can hear every pitch call, but that would be blatantly obvious after a game or two.