I didn’t respond when I first saw it but I was thinking red/black but then you have to account for one team being better, so there’d be more of one color on the wheel, that gap is always unique of course. But it pushes it from 50/50. So it’s hard to pinpoint an exact number in terms of probabilities but looking at it as red/black or coin flip is best start.
But to play devils advocate, someone will say human emotion is involved. The idea that being down 1-0 in a 3 game series will cause people to perhaps perform differently. While you can’t really quantity that, it can’t be completely dismissed either