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Laika

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Everything posted by Laika

  1. Laika
    This is not a good analysis. Anectodal reasoning is so tempting but it's just not very persuasive in baseball - there are hundreds of active pitchers and thousands of historic pitchers, you can find examples for every mold. I don't care that a couple of SPs succeed with s***** fastballs, or just one dominant offspeed pitch. Kuhl's odds of pulling it off are extremely low, just like every other pitcher in history with a mediocre fastball and a plus breaking ball - the vast majority of those guys are relievers. I mean you could argue that Kuhl is already performing beyond expectations by being an above replacement level starter. Look, in 2020 he tried it. FB% plummeted to just 44%; he was throwing offspeed stuff over half the time. The result was the worst walk rate of his career, worst HR rate, and therefore his worst FIP.
  2. Laika
    So does Kyle Drabek. He's only 33, I wonder what he's up to?
  3. Laika
    Are you related to Chad Kuhl? I don't get the obsession. He seems to objectively be a boring, low upside SP #5 who might even be more productive in the bullpen. I can't see any argument for him having more upside than Matz. Matz nuked the minors and has shown flashes of run prevention, strikeout ability, and strike throwing in the majors. Kuhl was a low K minor leaguer who grunts his way to an okay ERA with s***** K/BB ratio, on the strength of a good slider and a mediocre FB with two seam movement. He looks like a reliever who has been asked to start out of necessity and is making it work.
  4. Laika
    Yeah the fanbase may be sleeping on some of the young depth. Now many of the depth names suck or have low upside but there are a handful that could be good. Kay, Borucki, Hatch, Merryweather, Thornton, SWR, Murray... and how far away is Manoah?
  5. Laika
    You'll need to wait until the offseason is over. They could still add a solid SP. Even if they don't, they could at the trade deadline. Right now Toronto is in a 4 way tie for 8th in projected SP fWAR. Their strength is depth, which should benefit them over a long season, but they obviously lack the playoff punch of a true #1 and #2 starter tandem.
  6. Laika
    Is Groshans the new Biggio? Keith Law top 100 came out today. Pearson, Martin, Manoah, Orelvis, and Kirk all ranked.... No Jordan Groshans!
  7. Laika
    This is a projected upgrade on the 2021 roster though. SRF and Diaz are about replacement level, Matz is about a 1 WAR guy. The realistic upside of both SRF and Diaz is 0.5 WAR reliever, Matz' upside is 3 win SP
  8. Laika
    I still think they add one solid SP. Ideally Matz isn't handed a spot and is competing with Roark and Stripling in spring.
  9. Laika
    Translation - none of these players are worth anything.
  10. Laika
    I guess they did find a buyer...
  11. Laika
    Yeah, very little value going out. I'm fine with this I guess. Matz might have a bit more upside than most of the free agent pitchers. On one hand, I want to say that I would prefer to just cut two guys from the 40 and sign a free agent pitcher for $8M or whatever... but signing a solid SP to a pillow contract in the AL East is easier said than done. It's not where SP go to build value, obviously. I trust the organization so much that I assume they have an idea of how to fix Matz.
  12. Laika
    Ben Nicholson-Smith @bnicholsonsmith Sean Reid-Foley, Yennsy Diaz and Josh Winckowski to Mets for Matz per source
  13. Laika
    Hopefully s***** prospects. I don't think Matz is worth much. Some upside, sure.
  14. Laika
    He could get cut too, but three options makes him more valuable IMO than some other guys right now. And no, I don't think he's even a surefire CF. Might just be a fringe CF with some hitting skills, decent speed, average raw power. Tweener.
  15. Laika
    Shun Yamaguchi Derek Fisher - probably gets claimed but do we care? Sean Reid-Foley - probably gets claimed but do we care? Yennsy Diaz - probably gets claimed but do we care? Ty Tice - completely replaceable, may not even get claimed I think they'll find cash buyers for a couple of these guys, maybe Yennsy and SRF.
  16. Laika
    Even if he only produces at his 10th percentile ZiPS projection the team is fine: 10th percentile = 2.5 fWAR 50th percentile = 4.1 fWAR 90th percentile = 6.3 fWAR
  17. Laika
    Maybe but most player seasons are full of such inconsistencies. You'll be player of the month in June and then in August you can't hit a curveball.
  18. Laika
    I'm sure every competent front office tries to pick the stupid teams' pockets continuously. The Rockies suck but I'm not sure that they suck at trading... most of their problems are bad free agent signings, bad drafts, bad development, bad roster management. I mean they poached Marquez from the Rays, right.
  19. Laika
    Connorp is right. The bad 2 weeks did happen. It's tempting to say that Semien "figured it out" and would have produced 6 WAR in a full season, but he also could have went into a late summer slump...
  20. Laika
    I think a bot is programmed to repeat past posts?
  21. Laika
    Yeah Semien is a better fit for this group. Also should be a really good example for Austin Martin, who might need a similar type of defensive work ethic if he's going to stick at a premium position.
  22. Laika
    I wouldn't read too much into that statement. Saying the heavy lifting is done might mean they aren't going to sign Trevor Bauer, but no free agent SP after Bauer would really be considered a heavy lift.
  23. Laika
    Not going to touch the BLM stuff in general because that topic is incredibly complex, but many of the violent protestors have suffered severe consequences. Kathy Griffin's career effectively ended after her stunt. Actions have consequences! Again, Curt Schilling is just reaping what he sowed. I don't feel bad for him at all.
  24. Laika
    I believe the Committee changes from time to time. 16 members. Here is the breakdown from a recent year. It's players, executives, and media members. 12 votes are needed so pure player support would not be enough for Schilling to get in. Hall of Fame members George Brett, Rod Carew, Dennis Eckersley, Eddie Murray, Ozzie Smith and Robin Yount; major league executives Sandy Alderson, Dave Dombrowski, David Glass, Walt Jocketty, Doug Melvin and Terry Ryan; veteran media members/historians Bill Center, Steve Hirdt, Jack O’Connell and Tracy Ringolsby.
  25. Laika
    Schilling is a massive loser who has proudly and intentionally made himself into a social outcast. He's not some laudable contrarian. He's reaping what he has been sowing. When someone pisses everybody off, on purpose, for years, it should not be surprising or a "joke" when they are then rejected from social institutions.
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