Laika

This is insane if 1/18 is true

Holy f***, Semien on a one year deal would be unreal

Not really. They are just the most talked about. Bauer Tanaka Paxton Porcello Archer Odorizzi Shoemaker Wainwright Brett Anderson Walker Rodon Hill Leake Arrieta Homer Bailey Hamels Matt Moore (good numbers in Japan in 2020!) Trevor Cahill Tyler Anderson McHugh Fiers Anibal Sanchez Aaron Sanchez Nobody wants to see Toronto dumpster dive but the bottom of this list has some guys who should help a team and somebody will strike gold on one of those shittier names. Look how good Drew Smyly was last year.

There was a recent indication from Atkins that moving Biggio to 3B is not something they really want to do. Like, they'll do it if all they can land is a 2B but they clearly would prefer to leave him at second and sign a 3B

The called zone tends to be rounded and wider than the textbook zone, but it tends not to include the very corners of the textbook zone. And yes, there are pitches that have movement characteristics that impact whether or not a human will call them a strike. The robot would ignore these movement characteristics.

I do worry a bit that robo-umps will make the game more boring. The pitcher-catcher nuance can be pretty good and blown calls are at least an emotional event. I'm also wondering what they will do with the current discrepancy between the textbook strike zone and the actual called strike zone. These are not the same. If the robotic zone is just the textbook zone, it will change the game quite a bit, perhaps.

I do think Shoemaker has something to offer but he would be wayyyyy down my preference list right now. A s***** team like the Orioles should absolutely sign him though.

I don't think that is the deal with Tanaka. The rumblings earlier in the offseason were that he wanted to return to New York or he would think long and hard about going home. Now that the Yanks have brought in other SP they have probably told him they are out, so he is going home.

Sounds like Tanaka is about to sign back with his old NPB team. There were rumblings of this at the start of the offseason

Yeah I think the stuff about winning with Houston is just puffery. I want he took the highest AAV and is just betting that he'll still be able to get a deal two years from now

Then the players are dumb (which is entirely possible). Teams will still pay out the ass for Gerrit Cole and Mookie Betts types. And with expanded playoffs the middle market will have more incentive to buy free agents, rather than the current state where a huge chunk of the league is rebuilding/retooling and trying to wait out the free agent market for bargains at the end.

Yeah but it's politics as connorp says. The players are only rejecting it because it's part of some omnibus deal MLB has presented that includes expanded playoffs and (presumably) inadequate monetary compensation to the players for expanded playoffs. Basically, MLB is pretending that the universal DH is worth more to the players than it is. It's not a big deal to the players. Objectively it's just something that the league should do because it's good for the product, so better for players and owners. This is only leaking today because MLB decided to leak it to make the players look bad.

I think the only way to get that in a market like this is just to give a guy like Odorizzi or Paxton the multi-year deal they are looking for. People might be looking past Odorizzi. He was pretty sick in 2019 and in 2020 his increased velocity was there. Only 30 years old right now. There's upside on something like 3/$36. Or he might just suck. No idea what was going on in 2020. Looks like he couldn't get ahead of hitters and therefore he wasn't fooling hitters or getting whiffs.

The rumour is that Tanaka is only LOOKING for a one year deal, which makes him perfect. Give him $20M if that's what it takes.

I'd probably take the Pettersson and Hart side but the pick could end up high enough to flip it around

Census data in Canada is so out of date. Population dynamics are changing rapidly in places like Toronto. I think I went to school with approximately 56k Koreans in Toronto a few years ago.

I dunno. A) He kind of is a f***ing idiot, or at least the type of person to be blinded by how much he loves himself If he gambles on himself a bit and it pays off he could not only make much more money but he could go down in history I actually don't think a team is going to pay him quite as much as 5/$175. I think he's looking at $150 max on a traditional deal. Let's say he signs the deal I envision and then in 2022 he pitches 280 innings with 25 wins, 330 strikeouts, and another Cy Young, along with an MVP. How much does he get that offseason? I think he would be attracted by the chance to go for it and elevate his historic status. It's also not like it's a massive, all or nothing gamble, based on the possible contract. If his normal contract right now would be 150-175M, he's only gambling like 50-75M.

2023-2025 is just an insurance policy for Bauer in case he suffers a catastrophic injury. Think of it like a two year deal with a player friendly insurance policy at the end. The main point is that Bauer gets to try his start every four days thing in 2022 - no team is actually going to let him do that under a normal contract structure. And he'd be an idiot to take a one year deal right now when he could get six figures guaranteed, so that contract is the compromise. Bauer guarantees himself $106M just in case he loses his fingers tweeting too hard. Bauer gets to try to redefine starting pitching in 2022. Toronto gets an SP1/2 for the next two years but avoids major commitment after 2022. It's perfect

I don't even think of Tanaka's UCL thing as a negative anymore. He has held up for so long I think you need to flip the script and start thinking about him as a remarkably durable SP who has figured something our with respect to his arm. Since 2015 he is 19th in total IP and 18th in GS.

I wonder if someone will get really creative with Trevor Bauer. He wants to trial his start every four days thing and bet on himself, but the wonky 2020 season seems to make the innings jump too dangerous for him to do that in 2021. Here is a thought: 2021: $30.69M 2022: $37.420M *Bauer can opt out after 2022 2023: $12.69420M 2024: $12.69420M 2025: $12.69420M *it's written into the contract or otherwise promised that the team will support him in his desire to start every four days in 2022 The specific numbers aren't that important but the general idea is that the money from 2023-2025 is just an insurance policy for Bauer in case he suffers catastrophic injury. It makes it more likely that he would accept this deal now because some of the downside risk is removed. If his plan works out in 2022 he would opt out and be in line for a big final payday at age 32. There are precedents for pitchers in their early 30s signing massive deals: Greinke, Strasburg, Darvish, Scherzer. Verlander got $33 AAV at 36. Ryu 4/$80 at 33 is big enough. For Toronto specifically, the deal only commits big money during the two years that Springer is getting frontloaded.

It's not that simple. At some point a good team needs to consolidate wins in single, star level players. The rotation spots in question are probably Roark and Stripling. 1 WAR and 2 WAR, roughly by projections. Bauer at 4 wins is a 3 win upgrade. Tanaka at 3 wins is a 2 win upgrade, then Paxton at 2.5 is only an additional 0.5 win upgrade. That's overly simplified but you get the point

The kids are on TikTok now. Twitter is like, four social media platforms in the past. Bunch of old white guys.

Nah they just slide guys in and out when they graduate or get traded. They don't change rankings, order, or evals

HahahHHHhAjajajahahahahahah is that not like sac bunting in the ninth when you need a two run homer to tie the game? Coach should be fired into the sun

I think the lists you're looking at are outdated. MLB.com doesn't actually update their rankings throughout the year and their 2021 Yankees list isn't out, I think.