Laika

It's not insane... Just think of year 3 as an insurance policy for Bauer. The contract is 2/$85 with an opt out and a $20 insurance policy on his career

Insanely good deal. AA strikes again. It's like he blackmails some of these players. I know this one specifically is likely just Covid depressed but still...

I know this is stupid reasoning, but Bauer's cute little video has three jerseys/logos in it: Mets, Jays, Dodgers. Safe to assume the Mets and Dodgers were very close. I don't know why the Jays would be in there if they weren't competitive. Maybe Bauer's ego made him want to make it look like three teams were chasing him to the end, but I think it's more likely that Toronto just was kind of close here.

Where do the Mets even go from here? They'll end up signing like, Jackie Bradley Jr., Trevor Rosenthal, and Jake Odorizzi to three year deals.

So the douche probably would have topped $50M on a true one year deal.

2/$85 is bonkers. He'll be the most hated athlete in sports if he sucks.

This guy sucks

Thank you for your years of honest service.

He's destined to be a Met. They need him more - their rotation depth is very weak. Carrasco and Stroman are paper, Syndergaard will be rehabbing for half the year, and nobody should expect Peterson or Lucchesi to be anything more than SP5 types in 2021. After DeGrom and those names, their minor league depth is dogshit. It's actually kind of insane that they traded Matz - it's like they are operating under the assumption that they don't need more than 5 or 6 SP. They need Bauer to devour like 230 innings.

Imagine if: Everyone stays healthy, Kirk takes over C, Vladdy breaks out, Tellez doesn't regress much, and Hernandez doesn't regress much... Springer .360 wOBA Bo .360 wOBA Teoscar .350 wOBA Vlad .360 wOBA Tellez .350 wOBA Gurriel .350 wOBA Semien .330 wOBA Kirk .330 wOBA Biggio .335 wOBA Look at that 7-8-9, lmao

Both, probably?

That's the perfect comparison. Ozuna is also more athletic than Martinez, FWIW. Bad defensive reputation (even if UZR doesn't peg Ozuna as awful most years) but look at how much better Ozuna's BsR is.

Teams have no right to buyout a contract, aside from buyouts that are part of option years. If they release a player they still owe them the full amount of money. However, players and teams are technically allowed to amend their contracts and agree on lower buyouts. The union strongly frowns upon it though and perhaps frowns upon it to the point that they basically don't "allow" players to take a reduced buyout of a guaranteed contract. You almost never see it happen, of course. In 2014 the Orioled signed some Korean to a three year MLB deal. He sucked so bad in AAA in 2014 that they didn't invite him to camp in 2015, and then the player agreed to give up his guaranteed money in exchange for a release so he could go home.

4D chess

Yes. There has been some longform journalism on this. It seems like Davis is determined to play out the contract and collect his dough. The union was at some point probably leaning on him pretty heavily to keep playing. I imagine the relationship between David and the O's is completely broken at this point. I wonder if he would even quit if they offered him like, 95 cents on the dollar.

O's are hoping he finds baseball so embarrassing at some point that he retires and gives up the money.

Good for Chase. He had a near career year in 2020* *by xFIP

You're too old to make memes, Jim.

I think there is a much higher chance that Doolittle is completely cooked. I mean they both might be done, but in Yates' puny 2020 sample he had his normal velocity and he missed bats.

?????? You know Liriano is 37, right? And he was a full time reliever in 2019... There's a chance he has stayed in shape and the fastball is still there. He could be a decent backend or middle RP.

Even Lowry and Siakam fit that archetype, sort of. Stanley Johnson's playmaking has been impressive this year. Davis has been a bit disappointing. Seems like he's not fitting in with the system or something.

Paxton, German Marquez, Sonny Gray, David Price.... use your imagination

There are 1000 different ways to read that

It's a hard trade to analyze because of the opt out. It might a horrible trade. It might be fine. My assumption was that Colorado might pay down some portion of Arenado's 2021 salary but the majority of the $51M would only become applicable if he does not opt out. But no! Morosi said: Jon Morosi @jonmorosi Source: The #Rockies are paying Nolan Arenado's $35 million salary this season; $15 million is owed to the Cardinals in this calendar year, with the remaining $20 million deferred. Which really makes it seem like the "$20 million deferred" is already locked in and guaranteed. So in Scenario A where Arenado opts out, the Cardinals are giving up Gomber and the "prospects" and will have to pay Arenado $20M in 2021, but the Rockies at some point will reimburse them for the $20M. So it's like Gomber + the "prospects" for one year of Arenado that really only costs a couple million bucks, or whatever it costs to pay that $20M up front considering the time value of money blah blah. In Scenario A the Cardinals make out like absolute bandits because they get a 4 WAR player for not much more than Gomber and some s*** prospects. Arenado at a cost of say $2M is probably worth like $30M in surplus value and I doubt Gomber and Montero etc. combined are worth more than $10M. Scenario B is where Arenado does not opt out. The Cardinals then pay him $214M through 2027, less the $51M from Colorado, so 7/$163M. He's 1.5 years younger than George Springer and projects to be slightly worse in 2021 by both Steamer and ZiPS.... .... Scenario B actually does strike me as a negative value scenario. I think Arenado has less than no projected surplus value on that contract and it has albatross risk. Gomber and the prospects aren't a big package to give up but they also make it a bit worse. People can say that he would absolutely get 7/$163 with the signing team sacrificing a high draft pick on the open market, and they might be right, but that doesn't make it a positive contract. So the whole thing swings on whether or not he opts out. How do you straddle that risk? The negotiations must have been fascinating. If he opts out after 2021 he will be opting out of 6/$179M. Pretty huge risk. Doubt he does that but he might if he has a career year. Is he capable of a 7+ WAR season? If he opts out after 2022 it will be 5/$144. Again a huge risk. Again I doubt he opts out, but I think it's a but more likely for him to opt out after 2022 than after 2021. The CBA will also be expiring before 2022 so that has to be considered somehow. It's hilarious but St. Louis is likely hoping he is so amazing in 2021 and or 2022 that he just opts out and f***s off.