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Laika

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Everything posted by Laika

  1. Here is an interesting attempt to rank the contributions that each team received from their "core" players. Each player's WARP (WAR) is multiplied by both an age indexing factor and a team control indexing factor. Young players with lots of team control see their WARP value rise - old players nearing free agency see their WARP value fall. A "core player" is arbitrarily defined as somebody with a Core Warp of 5.0 or greater. The Blue Jays are found to have only one core player - Marcus Stroman. That's tied with the Padres for the fewest core players in baseball. Toronto ranks 28th in the composite Team Core Value ranking. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25034#.VGOV1TFVHhE.twitter My Comments 1) I think this is interesting and I think it serves to highlight a lot of the concerns that fans have with the current structure of the Blue Jays roster. If you are a fan that thinks the Blue Jays need to take advantage of an apparent competitive window that could slam shut in the not too distant future, this article affirms your beliefs. 2) The study is purely descriptive. It is not predictive (the article mentions this explicitly). The WARP values are actual WARP values from the 2014 season. A "truer" rank of core value moving forward would use projections for future seasons. (This would likely turn Lawrie, Hutchison, and Norris into "core players"). 3) The study has a potential bias towards teams with money. The Dodgers lead the league in Team Core Value largely because they have been able to purchase many years of control on good players like Gonzalez, Greinke, and Kemp. (But LA still deserves much credit for developing and smartly acquiring core guys like Puig, Kershaw, and Ryu). Veteran players like Cano and Ellsbury are also considered core players because of their production + how much team control they come with, but the study treats 3 years of arbitration control the exact same as 3 years of control at $25 million dollars. 6 years of a highly talented rookie should be considered a superior 'core' asset than 6 years of Jacoby Ellsbury at $21M, because the cost of your core affects the rest of your baseball team.
  2. You make a strong case for your own competence. Criticism rescinded.
  3. Yikes. If North is the best regular on the main board.... well, might as well tear the whole thing down and trade all the decent posters for prospects.
  4. I don't know a whole lot about SEO but I'm pretty sure than an eponymous URL isn't exactly a great choice for a startup baseball blog thing.
  5. Yeah it's not all about maximizing dollars. At Cuddyer's age, guaranteed years are just as valuable. Also, the Rockies suck and Cuddyer is from the East coast.
  6. I'm actually a huge fan-boy of Daniel 3:16. Great PD stats. Hmmm.
  7. His point is that Cuddyer and Granderson are statues... get with the program, sparky.
  8. Harvey, DeGrom, Wheeler, Niese, Colon, Gee, Syndergaard, Matz, Montero is a practical embarrassment of rotational riches. If they are planning on more than one QO signing, then they really aren't "giving up a first for Cuddyer". Go ahead and put your big boy pants on, New York, sign Hanley and Andrew Miller or whoever, and try to win something.
  9. lol the Mets r really dumb why
  10. CarGo is so overrated, lol.
  11. Lind and Pearce would probably rake as a 1B platoon, and Pearce could play LF against RHP. I would've asked for Chris Davis, lol. But, Toronto was looking for a cheaper player so that would've been a no-go...
  12. I really think the Blue Jays are taking the idea of Lawrie playing 2B a biiiiiit too seriously. I'd rather leave Lawrie at 3rd and sign someone like Jed Lowrie to man 2B for much, much less money than Pablo will get to be someone's half-decade 3B.
  13. Dunno. MiLB periphs don't completely blow.
  14. I dunno, he wasn't exactly free. Plenty more Conger fish in the sea.
  15. Foolhardy dogmatism towards framing is getting kind of annoying. Yes it's real and yes it's big but.... Hank Conger? Really?
  16. Everything you say is correct up until "Cubs... win a world series". Then I had a seizure.
  17. Would be silly to drop your load on Jon Lester in free agency and then hold Bryant back for super 2. Imagine they did that and missed the playoffs by a game?
  18. They have $ so they'll probably only turn to Happ if a few free agent targets spurn them for some weird reason. Or, maybe maybe some analyst with Epstein's ear likes Happ's velocity uptick and thinks he's undervalued. Who knows. They had so much success with Jason Hammel last year that they will almost certainly sign another Hammel type in free agency.
  19. They're not just gonna lead the league in waiver claims... they'll f***ing LAP the league! Waiver claims yeah!
  20. Toronto "wins" on paper, sure, but the fact is that most MLB trades have one side winning paper due to the simple fact that there are a finite number of players, sellers, and buyers - and thus a finite number of options available to teams. Ideal trades where the scales line up perfectly are incredibly rare.
  21. well if thehurl thought it was a good idea then it'll never happen and I should be ashamed.
  22. Steamer says that Valbuena is about as good a 3B option as Prado or Aramis. I feel like the market wouldn't value him as even close to being in the same tier as those guys though. By market value he would be closer to bench / UTIL rates... I think.
  23. Fallback trade target - Luis Valbuena. 2 years of control left Projected by MLBTR to make 3.1M in arbitration this year 2.7 fWAR in 2014 Projected for 2.4 fWAR in 2015 In his physical prime Plays 2B and 3B with varying competency Infield in Chicago is absolutely clogged with Bryant/Baez/Russell/Castro. Alcantara is an infielder by trade too. And Olt can backup 3B with pinch hitting pop. Cubs could conceivably compete with more pitching. Proposal - JA Happ straight up for Luis Valbuena.
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