Laika
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Everything posted by Laika
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4/60 for Martin and probably an Ellsbury-ish deal for Hanley.
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That's well below market value. Wow.
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Hypothetically the positional adjustment fully and completely negates the difference in positional competence. A ~2 win player doesn't get any more valuable because you move him to LF instead of CF. A Dirks/Pillar/Mayberry platoony thing can probably be worth more than 2 WAR (this is why you let Melky walk and only bring in a LF if it's someone comfortably above average).
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Pro for Sanchez: Not obvious on his Baseball Reference minor league page, where one would focus mostly on his K and BB rates, are his extreme groundball tendencies. Sanchez had a freaky 65.7% GB rate in AA last year, leading all starting pitchers I believe. He translated this to the big leagues in his 33 relief innings. The people who think Sanchez can start could point to someone like Justin Masterson, who has been a pretty solid SP throwing mostly just a hard moving FB and a breaking ball. Extreme GB dude that has struggled with walks and been an erratic K rate guy. Trading the first 6 years of Justin Masterson's career for Jay Bruce would be very, very stupid.
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It's pretty lazy/easy to just comp Randy Johnson for every prospect that can't throw enough strikes as a starter. How about we look at the entire population instead of the absolute, best case, 1/10000 scenario? Forget about Bruce and just focus on selling Sanchez right now. If you can find a GM who's dumb enough to even think of a Randy Johnson esque development path, you shove Sanchez into his pocket in a second and walk away with the profit. And to be completely fair here I am a Sanchez fan. But TINSTAAPP.
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LaRoche is 35 and has less career fWAR than 27 year old Bruce.
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The amount of debate on both sides of this affirms my belief that if a trade were to happen, Sanchez for Bruce is a pretty realistic scenario.
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Agree. Actually I thought / still think similar things about Drabek....
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Hutch > Sanch
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So now Steamer is gospel? Ok. Bruce tore meniscus in his knee and had surgery in May. Could conceivably have fudged his swing and sent his season down the tubes. Maybe he'd cost less than Sanchez. I dunno.
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Melky wants a five year deal and Aaron Sanchez would reasonably project to have a ~zero WAR career. Jay Bruce was poopy last year but that's pretty much the only reason he's available. Four win player before that. Big strong country kid. Toronto trades for players because free agents don't come here You guys are all so dum
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For anyone who believes in lineup protection... Just imagine Bruce sandwiched in between Bautista and Edwin.
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Rumoured to be available. Under contract for his physical prime, age 28-30. $12M $12.5M $13M team option w/ $1M buyout. Thumpy LHB that plugs an obvious roster hole. I'd probably be fine trading Sanchez for him.
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Wright Zobrist Niese Hammel (dropped and picked up) Quentin (not keeping)
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I know he moved to CF this year, but I wonder if he can can play 2B at all... if he could, great bench fit for Toronto. Feliz probably goes very high. Pretty sure he throws like, 99. With a future relief profile anyway, no harm in a team paying 50k to let him try to jump all the way to a big league bullpen. Juan Nicasio DFA'd by Colorado also. I'd easily pick him up and stick him in the pen.
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Burns, Berti, and Stilson seem highly protectable. Only reason not to protect Burns or Berti would be defensive info that we aren't privy to.
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I doubt it, actually. The projected decline in K% and rise in BABIP are based off of the trends of traditional pitchers. I think a more sensible projection for Dickey would be closer to exactly what he's done in Toronto over the last two years, less a few innings. 7.15 K/9, 2.96 BB/9, .264 BABIP, 3.97 ERA, 4.19 xFIP. He's mean RA9-WAR in Toronto has been 2.65. I think he's a decent bet to put up 2+ WAR again in 2015.
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Blue Jays will make offer to Sandoval in next 24 hours :(
Laika replied to Angrioter's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Hmm. He reportedly turned down the Pence contract for SF as well. Toronto probably has to go to 5/$100 to have any shot at him (barring breaking the 5 year role and giving him a legit 6 year offer). If you assume Lawrie can play 2nd full time, then Toronto would get an immediate 3 WAR boost and have 3+ win players across the infield. And when Travis comes up, Gibbons could cycle Lawrie and Sandoval through DH in an attempt to keep them healthy, guard Travis against same hand pitching, etc. I really think that Reyes needs Lawrie's D helping him out on the left side as he ages though. -
Blue Jays will make offer to Sandoval in next 24 hours :(
Laika replied to Angrioter's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Driving up the price for Boston maybe, while using the 'five year policy' to maintain ostensible honesty but limit actual exposure? -
5 minutes into the audio and he's already called Adam Lind soft, using the classic "didn't really care about winning" language. I hate when media personalities slag on players immediately after they leave town.
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~250 pound 3B that hasn't been much better then league average in each of the past 3 years, and whose value is highly dependent on maintaining his defensive skills.... Hopefully Boston gets him.
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I just think you can get there logically. If a knuckleballer can be framed, then they should benefit disproportionately from a good framer since so many thrown strikes in the bottom third of the zone get called balls. If a knuckleballer can't really be framed because of how catchers have to react to the knuckleball, then he's the guy who benefits the least, obviously.
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It's either the most or least to gain. One or the other.
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Hopefully the Blue Jays have realized how significant it is to essentially have a dead roster spot... And it's not like Thole has been helping Dickey maintain his NYM level performance.
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Dickey and Buehrle are probably to top 2 bets in baseball to start 32+ games, and they are both good enough at preventing runs that they should keep a good offense like Toronto's in almost every game. If Rogers indeed has lifted the payroll cap, then it's hard to justify giving up a dual performance buffer like that. Having both of them significantly reduces the risk of rotational disaster. I wonder if it's possible to 'frame' a knuckleball?
