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Nox

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Everything posted by Nox

  1. Nox
    You could have at least thanked me for my useful post.
  2. Nox
    Right now I bet Alex is drinking one of those new Starbucks triple fat tzatziki lattes while filling down Beeston's bunions.
  3. Nox
    Why would we not expect them to?
  4. Nox
    Don't paint in such broad strokes. Nobody is saying that analytics, especially in hockey, begins and ends with RTTM. The effects do broadly exist however and if you're working with very little information, you can make some generalized assertions such as "Alex Steen will not continue to shoot at 25% this year" based largely on mean effects. There's plenty of interesting work going on in the field that is significantly more involved than some weighted averages regressed to the mean appropriately. Take a look at this paper for nice introduction as to how we should probably be modeling real strength play. http://arxiv.org/abs/1208.0799 If there are things in there that you don't like (there may very well be) I'd love to hear them. It's an evolving field with many of the core ideas still being developed.
  5. Nox
    The Darrell troll. My favourite type.
  6. Nox
    If "playing like this" means getting better than average luck then you're probably right. If it means playing at their true talent with a more luck neutral set of noise surrounding that then I doubt it. I mean, even just take their shootout record out of the equation and you're looking at a team that's fighting for a playoff spot. Put them in the West and somebody would have burned down the ACC by now.
  7. Nox
    Why would anybody compare a hockey team and a baseball team in a semi-serious manner? That doesn't make any sense.
  8. Nox
    Shooting and save % regress to the mean much like anything else we measure in sports. You don't project Bernier and Reimer to stop 93% (or whatever it's been exactly so far) of the shots they face going forward despite what they've done already. You also don't expect the Leafs to shoot at the same lofty % they have going forward.
  9. Nox
    It was surprising I made it that far but this line is where I had to stop.
  10. Nox
    It definitely would not be an actual rare event. I was just being an ass. The Fangraphs odds seem about right.
  11. Nox
    Worse than Beeston and some cronies buying the team for their retirement side project?
  12. Nox
    -9 shot differential. Per game. Corsi/Fenwich/better stuff tell a similar story. The team in it's current form is s***. Then there's the Phaneuf debacle, the Bozak laugher and the aforementioned Clarkson cripler. Not bad for a year on the job.
  13. Nox
    http://bit.ly/1fayLMX
  14. Nox
    Dave Nonis
  15. Nox
    ftfy
  16. Nox
    Lol
  17. Nox
    Lol Well done Alex, well done.
  18. Nox
    Easy over.
  19. Nox
    Side action: Hech's ISO * 1000 (-105) vs Tercet's opening day weight (-105)
  20. Nox
    Lol I think that's probably fair.
  21. Nox
    That's an ugly Melky projection. I liked the signing too.
  22. Nox
    < 0 is bad right?
  23. Nox
    It wasn't meant to highlight your moment of shame. The beating you took for that was so overblown it's become a meme. Embrace it at this point. More so it was to make fun of the most prominent economist of the last 25 years who explicitly exposed himself as having no f***ing clue as to what he's doing. He just did it in a similar fashion to you, that's all.
  24. Nox
    You mean their might be a PDF associated with each player's projection!!?!?! Hold the god damn phone!!
  25. Nox
    Wtf is going on here? RJF - You're awful, even for an aspiring economist. A closed, tightly regulated system like MLB is about the one area where your illegitimate education should help you. Others in your field get it and have contributed to the knowledge here. Educate yourself and read some Matt Swartz posts on The Book Blog. Otherwise shut the f*** up. The market pays for wins. What goes in to projecting a win varies team to team. How much a team should pay for a win varies as well based on other factors (roster constraints, win curve, budget being the 3 dominant ones). (Side note: If anyone wants to see a book-length version of BTS's infamous "I ran a regression" thread, you should read Greenspan's "The Map and the Territory". It's utterly terrifying that that man was in the position he was.)
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