http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/images/headshot_70348.jpg7. Mark Appel, RHP
DOB: 06/15/1991
Height/Weight: 6’5”, 220 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted first overall by the Houston Astros in the 2013 MLB draft, Stanford University; signed for $6,350,000; traded to Philadelphia in the Ken Giles deal
Previous Ranking(s): 2015: #2 (Org), #35 (Overall)
2015 Stats: 4.37 ERA, 131.2 IP, 135 H, 110 K, 51 BB between Double-A Corpus Christi and Triple-A Fresno
Key Tools: 60 fastball, 55 change, 50 slider
Role: 50—No. 4 starter/low-end setup man
We are only a scant few years away, one imagines, from all information on the internet being conveyed through emoticons and memes in some sort of corgi-centric re-imagining of the Star Trek: The Next Generation classic, “Darmok.” Fortunately, my future Mark Appel report will lose nothing in translation when under the key tools and role, there is just a ¯_(ツ)_/¯ .
Appel is a confounding prospect to pin down, even after three seasons in the minors. At their best, his pitches will flash 7/6/6 potential, but those are flashes and they’ll rarely do so in the same game. His fastball generally sits in the low 90s now, only occasionally showing the near-elite velocity it had in college--well, except for that one start when he was popping 97 on the gun, but maybe you caught him on a different one when he was 89-92 and everything was flat. See, this is the problem.
The changeup is his best secondary offering. It's deceptive out of his hand and shows late fade and dive. If you catch it on a good day, it looks like a potential plus offering. The slider is his third pitch at present. It has above-average velocity and occasionally will show some short, hard tilt, but it lacks the true two-plane break needed to consistently miss bats.
The mechanics here are good: clean, simple, and repeatable. All his pitches come out from the same three-quarters arm slot. Yet you frequently hear that the ball is easy to pick up out of his hand. He shows it briefly behind him in during his delivery, and batters do seem quite comfortable timing his fastball. His command is fine, if not above average, but the limited deception leaves him with a thinner margin for error.
It's easy to see Appel as a change-of-scenery candidate, but the raw stuff is down from college (most of the time), and he will be 24 next season. It's not hard to see him turning into a similar—if not more frustrating—type of starter as Thompson, where the profile doesn't quite play to the level of the stuff. There is also a chance he ends up in a bullpen where the top end velocity might show up more frequently in short bursts. Hell, he still might turn into a no. 2 starter, but that is looking more and more like a longshot worthy of no more stake than the ol' crafty quid.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: On one hand, I’m mad at Jeff for using the shruggy face. On another hand, if there were ever a prospect worthy of two shruggy faces, it’s Appel. There’s no more likely prospect to have been traded in your dynasty league over the last 18 months, and for good reason—valuations are all over the place and everyone’s worried they’ll be holding the bag when we all realize it won’t work. However, the raw stuff remains and there’s top-25 fantasy starter upside with an easy-to-visualize fallback as a closer. Just remember you have to squint when you say that.
Major league ETA: Late 2016