I didn't say I strongly believe, I said there's a "pretty strong chance." I think his bat is comparable to Evan Longoria, who didn't quite get to .900 OPS but nearly did on several occasions. I think if after Longoria's rookie season, you took a poll asking people if he would get 2 .900 OPS seasons in his career, the majority of people would probably have said yes. You want to play the odds, and I get that. Most prospects bust, even the good ones usually don't become elite. I believe Seager has an elite bat, and obviously I put my fantasy money where my mouth is. However, even if he's more like a 20 HR, .825 OPS bat, that's still a borderline 1st round redraft pick and a much better asset than Kyle. I'm not going to make any black and white declarative statements like you did, I couch everything with IMO. You don't know what will happen and neither do I.
Let's completely disregard Seager's absurdly good line and call it a BABIP mirage, that's fine. You can't fake a 12.4% BB rate and .224 ISO, nor can you fake a 45% hart-hit ball rate. Those are real, elite underlying abilities. I also heavily consider his AA performance, since AA performance is a KPI for me. If you mash AA at 20/21, it bodes very, very well for your future.