Dr. Dinger

Wrong. He was 2nd best; now he's the best.

Is Teoscar Hernandez Really This Good? https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/is-teoscar-hernandez-really-this-good/ by Scott Strandberg - April 30, 2018 It’s always interesting to look back at lopsided trades like the one that sent Teoscar Hernandez to Toronto, especially because the team that gave him up was the Houston Astros, a franchise that the vast majority of knowledgeable fans would agree tends to make many more smart decisions than dumb ones. With that in mind, I think what was amazing about the Teoscar deal is just how down the Astros were on the talented young outfielder. On July 31, 2017, the Astros traded Teoscar and Nori Aoki to the Blue Jays. The return? Francisco Liriano, who brought with him a truly shameful 5.88 ERA, which was largely fueled by his 4.68 BB/9. Even at the time, it seemed pretty clear that the Astros knew Liriano was washed up, as the club converted him to a glorified LOOGY. Liriano pitched a grand total of 16.2 IP with the Astros — 14.1 IP in the regular season, 2.1 IP in the playoffs — over the course of 25 appearances. Of course, this post is not about Liriano, but it’s important to contextualize how little the Astros valued Teoscar that they were willing to part with him (and Aoki) for 16.2 IP of replacement-level relief pitching. With George Springer, Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez, Derek Fisher, and Jake Marisnick hanging around the major-league club — and stud prospect Kyle Tucker climbing through the minors — it’s certainly true that the Astros were dealing from depth. Still, the Jays did one hell of a job landing Teoscar in exchange for a 34-year-old pitcher fighting to keep his ERA under 6.00. If I’ve been hesitant to buy into Teoscar, that was the primary reason. “If he was actually good, there’s no way Houston would’ve traded him for a Liriano rental,” said the voice in my head, and who am I to argue with that logic. Yet, a month into the 2018 season, Teoscar is taking the majors by storm. For fantasy purposes, he’s been one of the hottest waiver pickups of the young season. For their part, it’s not like the Jays instantly fell in love with their new acquisition either. Teoscar impressed in his September call-up last year, hitting .261/.305/.602 with eight homers in 95 plate appearances, yet Toronto still went out and beefed up their outfield depth by adding Curtis Granderson and Randal Grichuk in the offseason. That effectively squeezed Teoscar out of a job and sent him back to Triple-A. Even though it didn’t take him long to find his way to the majors in 2018 — he was recalled when Josh Donaldson hit the DL on April 13 — it’s still noteworthy that this wasn’t the original plan. But that’s enough about how we got here. Let’s discuss what Teoscar is doing with the opportunity, starting with a simple look at his major-league numbers over the course of his three partial seasons. 2016 (112 PA): .230/.304/.420, .190 ISO, 9.8% BB, 25.0% K 2017 (95 PA): .261/.305/.602, .341 ISO, 6.3% BB, 37.9% K 2018 (64 PA): .316/.391/.702, .386 ISO, 10.9% BB, 23.4% K My goodness, what’s not to like about this? Obviously, these are all somewhat small samples, but it still means something when literally everything is significantly better than it was in his first two stints in the majors. It’s mighty impressive how he’s maintained and even increased his power production, while also making massive strides in the plate discipline department. It would be great to determine how sustainable these improvements are, so let’s try to find an answer. Unfortunately, it does look like the improvements in his K-rate — and probably his AVG too — are somewhat small-sample mirages. Teoscar currently has a 16.0% swinging strike rate, which is tied with Joey Gallo and Matt Olson for the 9th-highest whiff rate in the majors this season. That’s a tiny improvement from last year’s 16.6% SwStr, but I’ll just say that guys with a 16% whiff rate don’t typically hit .316, or anywhere near .316 for that matter. Something’s got to give here. When it comes to his power production, well that’s a different (and more optimistic) story. As Josh Shepardson pointed out in his Statcast column last week, Teoscar is a Statcast darling so far this season. As of this writing, Teoscar’s 96.7 mph average exit velocity is the seventh-best rate in the majors, and there’s plenty to like in his batted-ball data too, like his 26.2% line-drive rate and 52.4% hard-hit rate. For those of you looking for a nice visual of his power, I’d like to direct your attention to this unreal homer to center, this pulled no-doubter, this oppo bomb from yesterday, etc. The wild card for his fantasy value is whether or not he can translate his plus speed into stolen-base production. So far in the majors, that has not happened, as the one bag he’s swiped so far this season is his only steal in 271 career major-league plate appearances. Still, considering he stole 169 bases in 3,078 PA in the minors with a solid 75.4% success rate, it certainly wouldn’t be shocking if he managed to chip in 10+ steals over the course of the season. Once his strikeout rate climbs a bit, and his .368 BABIP decreases, Teoscar realistically levels out as a .250-.260 hitter when it comes to batting average. On the other hand, he’s shown a lot of in-game power at the major-league level — probably moreso than scouts ever expected of him — and it’s not like he’s getting lucky with cheap homers that sneak over the fence down the line. Even if he doesn’t produce much in the way of stolen bases, Teoscar’s power should keep him relevant for fantasy purposes — as will the fact that he’s the No. 2 hitter in a decent lineup that plays in a hitters’ park. Hitting second for the Jays is already paying big dividends for him, as he’s picked up 12 runs and 11 RBI in his 14 games. The batting average is the only part of his game that I think is a bit of a mirage. As long as you don’t expect him to hit .300+ all year, I think he’s a relatively safe bet for production, which is a serious compliment when you’re discussing a relatively unheralded 25-year-old prospect. Of course, there’s always a chance the wheels fall off and he ends up whiffing his way out of a job, proving the Astros right about him in the process. I just don’t see that happening though. There is almost certainly some regression coming, but he should remain a valuable mixed-league fantasy asset even if/when that regression arrives. Also, he still has some untapped upside in the form of stolen bases, so his ceiling might be even higher than his excellent current production. I’m buying in.

There is no possible way for Vlad to get promoted before September except via an extension, and he should know that. He could take money right now and be a full-time major leaguer, otherwise he'll have to wait another full year to get the permanent call. A year is a long time. He could take the extension and still hit free agency around age 27/28 and get another massive windfall, so it's a very real possibility that he'd consider it.

I mostly look at age, K & BB rates, and wRC+. Standard (actual) prospects in AA are usually around 21 years old, and for each year younger/older than that, their performance is exponentially more/less impressive. For a hitting prospect, I'd want to see him be a year or two younger than his peers, striking out less than 20% of the time and walking at least 7% of the time with a wRC+ above 100. You might look at a prospect in AA with a 110 wRC+ and say to yourself, well that's not very impressive, it's only 10% better than his peers, but if he is two years younger than the competition, it's extremely impressive. For Vlad to have a 192 wRC+ (ie 92% better than average for the level), while being 2.5 years young for the level, and having god-tier K & BB rates... it basically indicates that he is a potential Hall of Fame caliber hitter.

It's probably a good idea to rotate Vlad and Donaldson through DH and 1B opportunities as well, if the team decides to pursue this option. It would provide more defensive flexibility than Morales, to say the least.

Remember how Mark Shapiro gave Alex Anthopoulos a dressing down for mortgaging the future of the franchise in the Tulowitzki and David Price trades, but then it turned out that Shapiro inherited the best prospect in baseball from AA?

FWIW, Vlad has repeatedly stated that his goal is to be in the majors before his 20th birthday.

I've been saying this for a couple weeks now and it makes sense for both parties. Vlad could be in the big leagues tomorrow and have financial security while providing the opportunity for substantial surplus value for what we know is an extremely frugal Front Office. Getting team options for 3 of his FA years is a bit of a pipe dream, but it's nice to reach for the stars. I don't think there's any question that he can be an above average MLB hitter right away.

.380/.442/.582, 192 wRC+ Video game numbers.

I tried to trade Craig Kimbrel for Josh Hader, and silvergun wouldn't do it. And he was right not to.

Holy s***, how did Kingery earn 2B/3B/SS/OF already? Nice utility piece for this year and next.

Been expecting this with Seager for awhile now but it definitely sucks big time.

Corey Seager going for TJS RIP my season

Now would be a good time to offer Josh Donaldson a contract extension: 4 years, $110M, 5th year vests @ $25M if he gets 500 PA in year 4. With the time he's missed and his age, the odds are he won't get anywhere near that on the open market this winter.

Don't worry, I traded them both for Michael Kopech. And actually the production I got from Gio was probably much better than SP4 as he's posted a sub-3 ERA across his last 230 IP.

I mean, yes, but also the fact that this is literally a one-way bet.

This seems like an extremely poor wager for you.

Exactly. If we are talking about optics/fan opinion, it would be far worse to demote Teo at this point than to release Morales. It's also just worse for our on-field competitiveness and player dev.

Fair enough, although he might accept assignment if he feels that no other team is interested in signing him anyway.

Don't forget, when we DFA him, there will be absolutely no trade suitors and no one would even consider taking on his contract, so we will be able to outright him to AAA. He's not going to retire and walk away from that money, so we will be able to keep him in the organization in case Smoak or Pearce gets hurt. As soon as Donaldson is healthy enough to DH for the Jays, Morales needs to go.

Buy two closers, get a free Gattis!

The reality is that Josh Donaldson should probably DH a lot this year. Morales getting DFA is slowly moving from a nice-to-have to a necessity.

Keone Kela and Hunter Strickland are legit closers and y'all should buy them from me before silvergun does.

He's Aaron Sanchez with better command. Only 2 HR allowed in 190+ MiLB innings. Carlos Martinez is another comp I would throw on him.

Fire him into the sun. He gets his $33M, no point in crying any tears for him. He got fat and old and forgot how to hit. Tough titty.