Jimcanuck

We need baseball.

Can Ryan Goins stick, with 29 man rosters?

Looks like a plan, and we gonna have some baseball this year Assume this means league wide DH and robo-umps

Let's make a deal, I'm interested in your 2021 1st round pick

Wish i was rebuilding instead of league favourite, really like Patino

Rest of the chat below. The answer to the Zac Veen swing question reminded me of Olerud. Smoothest swing I ever saw. Lou (Atlanta): Do you think Austin Wells can stick at catcher for the long term? Carlos Collazo: I would lean towards no, based on the industry feedback. But how teams value catcher defense is going to change fairly significantly soon, too. Joe (Ithaca, NY): Could you elaborate on what makes Zac Veen's swing the best amateur swing you've ever seen? That is incredibly high praise. Carlos Collazo: Mechanically, the best swing I've ever seen, yeah. Also, know that this is my fourth year really doing this for BA, so my pool of hitters is much smaller than a lot of the scouts in the game who have been doing this for decades. I just love how fluid and loose the swing is. He's explosive without being violent, he has a sizeable load in his lower half but it doesn't disrupt his timing on getting the foot down and his hands are remarkable quiet throughout the entire process. He seems balanced before, during and after the swing in his follow through and it looks like he has plenty of natural leverage and loft as well without creating a ton of holes in the zone. We have some video of his swing on the site (go to the BA 300 and click the video), and from the open side it's just nice to watch. Frank (Des Moines): Based on several scouting reports it sounds as if Ed Howard has limited offensive potential. Is this an accurate conclusion or am I missing something? Carlos Collazo: I don't think limited is the right word. If you said there's a lot you have to project on to get to solid offensive potential I think that would be more fair. The offensive tools are in the tank. He just needs more reps and continued improvement. Bat speed and the swing itself are fine. RT (NC): CJ Abrams, arguably, had the best debut in 2019 for first year players. Who do you see having that type of debut in this class? Carlos Collazo: Abrams has fantastic pure bat-to-ball skills and is a 70 or 80 grade runner from the left side. There's no one in that range on the high school side this year. Carlos Collazo: By that, I mean no high school player ranked close to where Abrams was a year ago with that skillset. Steve (Houston): What is the usual proportion of high school to college kids drafted each year? And would you expect that number to change in one direction or another this year? Carlos Collazo: This is a good question. We wrote a piece last summer discussing how teams have increasingly drafted college players. When we did the research then, high school players accounted for roughly 18-30 percent of the players drafted and signed going back to 1981. In 2019, 137 of the 960 players drafted and signed came from the high school ranks. That's a tick over 14 percent. If you just look at the top 10 rounds, 56 of 291 drafted and signed players were high schoolers (19 percent). I would be surprised if we didn't see lower percentages in the high school demographic this year, considering the number of players who simply didn't play. Though how teams handle money-savers in the draft this year could affect those numbers. Devin (Columbus): Might the shorter draft actually help most college seniors? Since most will now go undrafted, many might be able to get the $20k max instead of being drafted and signing for $5k. Carlos Collazo: Do not bet on owners simply going up to that $20K limit because they can. It's a cap, not a floor. Plenty of guys are going to sign for $5K. Adam (Crown Point, IN): Love the work you guys do, but being a huge college baseball guy and want that sport to keep thriving, I feel like Zac Veen is a generational talent, percentage he actually lands at Florida?! Hey,there's always a chance! Carlos Collazo: Veen doesn't need to get to Gainesville for college baseball to thrive next year. It's going to have more talent than it knows what to do with. Keith (California): Similar question as before... Outside of the top 4 hitters (Martin, Torkelson, Gonzales, Veen) which 3 hitters have the highest ceiling and which 3 hitters have the highest floor? Thanks! Carlos Collazo: Wow. I'm disappointed you excluded Garrett Mitchell from this group. He is our fourth bat, and I'll just group him in this selection of players because he would be the highest ceiling if we didn't. Ceiling: 1) Austin Hendrick 2) Casey Martin 3) Pete Crow Armstrong. Floor 1) Patrick Bailey 2) Heston Kjerstad 3) Austin Wells/Daniel Cabrera. Carlos Collazo: We have successfully ended with a question similar to what we started with. That's good circular writing strategy, folks. Thanks for joining and thanks as always for your continued passion about the draft and amateur players in general. I'm glad we could talk some actual baseball and I look forward to seeing this transcript in a few years and looking foolish! Until next time. Stay safe.

Certainly wouldn't be surprised. Baseball America has an 80 grade on the hit, 60 grade on the power. Fangraphs is not the only one projecting an elite MLB'er. Apparently there is no real difference in the hit tool, from both sides of the plate. But more power from the left side, IIRC.

See my edit. I have Fangraphs in my corner on this one.

I said its a reasonable projection. Not saying it will happen. Fangraphs has a FV of 80 on Franco. This corresponds to an expected peak WAR of > 7.0 by their own chart. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-new-fangraphs-scouting-primer/

Franco has otherworldly strike zone management / discipline. A reasonable projection is Lindor type numbers with a OBP at least 50 points higher Franco has been thrown out some 40% of SB attempts. Given that he's 5'10" and already ~200 lbs at 19 yrs, the SB totals may be low.

Potentially. I am sure MLB would be able to work something out, the hotel chains are starved for cash. Could be a two week on, two week off thing for the staff, with a test before each two week on. I am sure there are plenty of other matters that would need to be sorted.

By the time it gets going, mid-May or a little later, the caseload should be down significantly and widespread fast testing should be available (and certainly available for the MLB undertaking). Should be feasible with the appropriate controls.

I can't imagine they would not have family with them, if they have one. Others, like Reese McGuire for example, will need to find things to do. Although the game schedule is apparently going to be intense, so free alone time might not cause problems. 40 man rosters means we might see guys like Franco, Kelenic, other guys of that ilk on the field.

Seems quite workable, I'm just wondering if there will be rule changes to minimize player contact on the field. Mentions no mound visits. What about tag plays?

I for one would be ecstatic to see some games, regardless. Even if it's just a compendium of MLB and MiLB players that have had the virus and recovered.

So if there is no season this year, or a significantly abbreviated one, are we just having a NPD in early 2021 based on 2019 season standings?

Hard to say. The more worrisome aspect is there doesn't seem to be the same level of covid-19 precautions in the DR, going by that video. Also, welcome to the board.

Two years ago

In the USA it was 36.6 years for men, 42.2 years for women. Impact of WWI and the Spanish Flu. University of Berkeley https://u.demog.berkeley.edu/~andrew/1918/figure2.html Worldwide an average life expectancy in 1918 of 29 yrs is not implausible, but this was an anomaly as the data shows.

I can believe it, based on his completely incomprehensible posts.

Small sample, could be just random chance. I would put less credence in the draft selection and more in the high performance development team the Jays have put together.

BA has a 6 part series on IFA, with more parts to come. So far, the only mention of the Jays is below. Manuel Beltre, SS, Dominican Republic Beltre, 15, is the most famous player in the 2020 class, as he has spent years documenting his daily training on his Instagram account of more than 35,000 followers. A baseball rat, Beltre has a simple, repeatable swing from the right side and is one of the top hitters in the class, with ample game experience and a baseball IQ well beyond his years. He's expected to sign with the Blue Jays. Beltre trains with Jaime Ramos.

J4L is MIA

I made a career switch a few years ago, man. Construction claims is easy money.

William (Bronx, NY): Any rumblings to where Nick Gonzales might go to? It's disappointing that we couldn't get a longer look at him this year. Carlos Collazo: It is disappointing that we couldn’t see more of him. But Gonzales is one of the guys who will be affected the least by this. He had already banked quite a bit of his draft stock. I keep hearing the Royals tied to him. F'ing Royals.