Not sure where you are getting your numbers from. Fangraphs has his 2021 HR/FB at 9.2%, after previous 5 seasons of 15.1%, 14.7%, 13.7%, 14.8%, 15.4%.
You agree he will regress, the only difference of opinion is the scale. Seems I am expecting him to regress more than you, that's all. Not sure how that is a "moronic take".