Frag

One-way, too. How cute!

Habs sign Douglas Murray to a 1-year contract. LOL

I guess Deck McGuire shows us why you shouldn't draft pitchers with average stuff that high in the first round for reasons like "most likely to reach majors" and whatnot.

Lawrie's month-by-month progression in wRC+: 64, 78, 96, 191 Also, if you think Lawrie has quite the attitude problem, it's a good thing you weren't a Tigers fan in the early 20th Century. Can't imagine how many threads would be made about Ty Cobb's attitude.

Because a championship ring means you are automatically a good coach, no matter how stupid your strategies/tactics are, right Randy Carlyle?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/08/royals-acquire-emilio-bonifacio.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

Drew's response was much better:

I need a vacation. Blargh!

Thanks! So, essentially, the top 20 players in the past 6 years (excluding goaltenders) in dGD are: 1 SEDIN, HENRIK 131.4 2 CROSBY, SIDNEY 114.6 3 DATSYUK, PAVEL 96.4 4 SEDIN, DANIEL 93.3 5 TOEWS, JONATHAN 89.6 6 CHARA, ZDENO 88.4 7 THORNTON, JOE 80.2 8 OVECHKIN, ALEX 75.9 9 SPEZZA, JASON 68.6 10 BACKSTROM, NICKLAS 66.2 11 RYAN, BOBBY 66.2 12 HORTON, NATHAN 66.0 13 SEMIN, ALEXANDER 66.0 14 VISNOVSKY, LUBOMIR 65.5 15 ST._LOUIS, MARTIN 64.3 16 ELIAS, PATRIK 60.5 17 GETZLAF, RYAN 59.9 18 MALKIN, EVGENI 57.2 19 KUNITZ, CHRIS 55.6 20 HEDMAN, VICTOR 55.2 Bottom 20 are: 1 JOHNSON, JACK -64.8 2 MOEN, TRAVIS -63.3 3 GIRARDI, DAN -62.3 4 MORRIS, DEREK -52.6 5 ADAMS, CRAIG -52.1 6 HANDZUS, MICHAL -48.3 7 STUART, BRAD -46.9 8 PHILLIPS, CHRIS -42.5 9 THORNTON, SHAWN -41.7 10 MARCHANT, TODD -41.6 11 BROUWER, TROY -41.4 12 MOREAU, ETHAN -40.5 13 NYSTROM, ERIC -40.1 14 CROMBEEN, BJ -40.0 15 SBISA, LUCA -39.9 16 PAHLSSON, SAMUEL -39.3 17 CAMPBELL, GREGORY -39.3 18 ZANON, GREG -38.6 19 MCCLEMENT, JAY -38.5 20 EDLER, ALEXANDER -38.5 *Itallics = Defenceman

Thanks! It's been a lot of work. I'm just going to re-post this here from PPP, with some modifications from the original post: I'm going to do further tests on dGD and GIGD, but I wonder if GIGD may be a hockey version of FIP.

So, okay, I created this new metric that incorporates SH% into dCorsi called delta goal differential (dGD). The methodology is as follows: 1) Instead of multiplying the player’s actual CA by his actual CSv%, I multiply it with his opponent’s Corsi on-ice SH% (OppCSh%; when he wasn’t on the ice). This would be the expected SV% if the player had a “league average” goaltender behind him accounting for quality of opposition if we assume players outside the goaltenders have negligible effects on their team’s SV% (There is possibly a small effect, but I’m assuming it’s negligible right now). I'll call it "Goalie-Independent Goals Against" or "GIGA" for now. I get the goal differential by subtracting the player’s actual GF with GIGA instead of the old GA to get me "Goalie-Independent Goal Differential" or "GIGD". 2) Then, I calculate the expected goal differential by: multiplying the player’s exCF (based on usage) with his teammate’s on-ice Corsi SH% when he is not on the ice with them; multiply the player’s exCA with his opponent’s on-ice SH% when he is not on (like mentioned in 1 when calculating GIGA); and, calculate the expected goal differential based on this. 3) Finally, I calculate dGD between the player’s “actual” GD (GIGD) and his “expected” GD. So, without further ado, here are the top/bottom 10 forwards/defencemen in the past 6 years using dGD (5v5 only; minimum 50 TOI): Top 10 forwards (dGD): 1 SEDIN, HENRIK 131.4 2 CROSBY, SIDNEY 114.6 3 DATSYUK, PAVEL 96.4 4 SEDIN, DANIEL 93.3 5 TOEWS, JONATHAN 89.6 6 THORNTON, JOE 80.2 7 OVECHKIN, ALEX 75.9 8 SPEZZA, JASON 68.6 9 BACKSTROM, NICKLAS 66.2 10 RYAN, BOBBY 66.2 Bottom 10 forwards: 893 PAHLSSON, SAMUEL -39.3 894 CROMBEEN, BJ -40.0 895 NYSTROM, ERIC -40.1 896 MOREAU, ETHAN -40.5 897 BROUWER, TROY -41.4 898 MARCHANT, TODD -41.6 899 THORNTON, SHAWN -41.7 900 HANDZUS, MICHAL -48.3 901 ADAMS, CRAIG -52.1 902 MOEN, TRAVIS -63.3 Top 10 defencemen: 1 CHARA, ZDENO 88.4 2 VISNOVSKY, LUBOMIR 65.5 3 HEDMAN, VICTOR 55.2 4 LETANG, KRIS 54.4 5 ROBIDAS, STEPHANE 54.2 6 HAMHUIS, DAN 51.6 7 CARLE, MATT 48.6 8 COBURN, BRAYDON 42.4 9 GREEN, MIKE 40.8 10 GOLIGOSKI, ALEX 40.3 Bottom 10 defencemen: 475 JOVANOVSKI, ED -33.7 476 FOWLER, CAM -37.6 477 EDLER, ALEXANDER -38.5 478 ZANON, GREG -38.6 479 SBISA, LUCA -39.9 480 PHILLIPS, CHRIS -42.5 481 STUART, BRAD -46.9 482 MORRIS, DEREK -52.6 483 GIRARDI, DAN -62.3 484 JOHNSON, JACK -64.8 Edler was a big surprise in the bottom 10 list. I knew Girardi was overrated, but I didn't realize he was this bad. The list for defencemen make me realize that SH% may not be as important a tool compared to forwards (which, to me, makes sense; forwards tend to have greater spreads in SH% than dmen).

Steve Burtch's post about dCorsi (something we were collaborating on for the past week) on PPP now.

Sorry for the barrage of numbers, but I made a mistake while calculating goal differential (with the player's SH%). After correcting the error, the top 20 in the past 6 seasons in delta goal differential (dGD) are: 1 SEDIN, HENRIK 133.1 2 SEDIN, DANIEL 123.5 3 CROSBY, SIDNEY 121.3 4 TOEWS, JONATHAN 103.3 5 GETZLAF, RYAN 100.9 6 PERRY, COREY 95.5 7 ST._LOUIS, MARTIN 92.2 8 KUNITZ, CHRIS 90.7 9 DATSYUK, PAVEL 88.9 10 RYAN, BOBBY 82.2 11 OVECHKIN, ALEX 81.4 12 MALKIN, EVGENI 78.5 13 STAMKOS, STEVEN 74.6 14 BACKSTROM, NICKLAS 73.8 15 HORTON, NATHAN 65.3 16 SEMIN, ALEXANDER 65.2 17 THORNTON, JOE 64.7 18 ELIAS, PATRIK 64.5 19 VORACEK, JAKUB 62.3 20 BURROWS, ALEX 59.8 Bottom 20: 883 MAYERS, JAMAL -34.2 884 JACKMAN, TIM -34.2 885 DRURY, CHRIS -35.0 886 MOREAU, ETHAN -35.3 887 ORR, COLTON -35.5 888 LAPIERRE, MAXIM -36.2 889 PELLEY, RODNEY -36.3 890 GLASS, TANNER -36.5 891 PANDOLFO, JAY -36.9 892 KORPIKOSKI, LAURI -37.4 893 DWYER, PATRICK -37.5 894 DRAPER, KRIS -39.4 895 NYSTROM, ERIC -40.9 896 MARCHANT, TODD -41.2 897 SUTTER, BRANDON -43.2 898 CAMPBELL, GREGORY -43.5 899 THORNTON, SHAWN -45.0 900 ADAMS, CRAIG -49.2 901 HANDZUS, MICHAL -57.5 902 MOEN, TRAVIS -60.2 Just a note, a win is marginalized to approximately a 6 goal differential. So, to determine how well these players were above/below average, just divide by 6.

Okay now, top 20 forwards last season were (dCorsi alone; no SH% or SV%): 1 EBERLE, JORDAN 354.1 2 SEDIN, DANIEL 340.2 3 KOIVU, MIKKO 312.1 4 KESSEL, PHIL 305.5 5 SEDIN, HENRIK 293.0 6 TAVARES, JOHN 281.3 7 HALL, TAYLOR 278.8 8 PARISE, ZACH 265.4 9 LADD, ANDREW 255.0 10 WILLIAMS, JUSTIN 249.3 11 CROSBY, SIDNEY 237.1 12 VORACEK, JAKUB 221.0 13 FOLIGNO, MARCUS 211.4 14 PERRY, COREY 211.0 15 SHORE, DREW 205.8 16 PACIORETTY, MAX 199.3 17 NUGENT-HOPKINS, RYAN 184.6 18 COGLIANO, ANDREW 184.5 19 GRABOVSKI, MIKHAIL 180.3 20 BERGERON, PATRICE 180.3 Top 20 in GD if SH% is considered (flawed, but possibly necessary): 1 EBERLE, JORDAN 16.4 2 KESSEL, PHIL 16.1 3 CROSBY, SIDNEY 15.7 4 SEDIN, DANIEL 14.7 5 HALL, TAYLOR 14.5 6 SEDIN, HENRIK 13.1 7 LADD, ANDREW 12.8 8 KOIVU, MIKKO 12.2 9 TAVARES, JOHN 12.2 10 WILLIAMS, JUSTIN 10.9 11 PARISE, ZACH 10.8 12 PERRY, COREY 10.5 13 VORACEK, JAKUB 10.5 14 KUNITZ, CHRIS 9.7 15 PACIORETTY, MAX 9.6 16 FOLIGNO, MARCUS 9.1 17 KADRI, NAZEM 8.6 18 STAMKOS, STEVEN 8.3 19 COGLIANO, ANDREW 8.2 20 DUPUIS, PASCAL 8.0 Meanwhile, bottom 10 (if SH% of individual player in GD is considered): 471 RIBEIRO, MIKE -5.6 472 SUTTER, BRANDON -5.7 473 EMMERTON, CORY -5.9 474 KOVALCHUK, ILYA -6.1 475 NOLAN, JORDAN -6.3 476 STAAL, ERIC -7.7 477 KANE, PATRICK -8.1 478 GIONTA, STEPHEN -8.7 479 BOLLAND, DAVE -9.2 480 TLUSTY, JIRI -9.3 Bottom 10 in dCorsi (no SH% or SV%): 471 SUTTER, BRANDON -135.2 472 STAAL, ERIC -138.7 473 CAMPBELL, GREGORY -142.6 474 KANE, PATRICK -144.6 475 KOVALCHUK, ILYA -151.5 476 EMMERTON, CORY -160.2 477 NOLAN, JORDAN -166.6 478 GIONTA, STEPHEN -181.0 479 TLUSTY, JIRI -182.6 480 BOLLAND, DAVE -197.9 It seems a flaw with this metric is that one season may be too small a sample size to use. Players on good teams will look worse and players on bad team will look better.

I wonder if this finding could be a step towards evaluating roster management by NHL coaches.

Now Steve Burtch found something interesting. When you include TOI into the regression, CF20 for forwards shoots up the R^2 value to 59% (goes up even further if you include OppCF20, which surprised me a bit). The effect isn't seen when you run a regression on CA20, which suggests that coaches have some understanding on utilizing the offensive side of their forwards' game. However, coaches really aren't that good at utilizing the defensive side of their forwards' game. The effect was seen among defencemen CF20 (R^2 up from 54% to 56%), but wasn't as prominent as it was for forwards (up from 55% to 59%).

CA20 = Corsi Against per 20 minutes CF20 = Corsi For per 20 minutes Opp20CF/A = Corsi For/Against of opposition when player not on ice TMCF/A = Teammates' Corsi For/Against when player not on ice Hope that helps.

Yup.

From updated numbers, new comparables: - Cody Franson - Tom Gilbert and Carlo Colaiacovo - Carl Gunnarsson - Marc Staal and Anton Volchenkov - Dion Phaneuf - Nicklas Lidstrom (age effect to consider) and Andrei Markov - David Clarkson - Dominic Moore and Markus Naslund - Dave Bolland - Mike Fisher - Tyler Bozak - Gregory Campbell - Joffrey Lupul - TJ Hensick? - Phil Kessel - Blake Wheeler and Nathan Horton - Mikhail Grabovski - Anze Kopitar - Mark Fraser - Derek Meech - Nikolai Kulemin - Saku Koivu, Martin Havlat and... Nazem Kadri? - JVR - JP Dumont, Darren Helm, and Matt Duchene

Updated: 1 EHRHOFF, CHRISTIAN 283.2 2 BOYLE, DAN 170.8 3 DILLON, BRENDEN 169.1 4 KOSTKA, MICHAEL 162.8 5 VISNOVSKY, LUBOMIR 161.4 6 SCHENN, LUKE 160.8 7 HEDMAN, VICTOR 157.5 8 LETANG, KRIS 155.6 9 TIMONEN, KIMMO 150.5 10 VLASIC, MARC-EDOUARD 148.8 11 BRODIE, TJ 144.5 12 MUZZIN, JAKE 143.6 13 STRALMAN, ANTON 138.3 14 MCDONAGH, RYAN 121.5 15 BRODIN, JONAS 120.9 16 SUBBAN, P.K. 112.9 17 GUNNARSSON, CARL 108.3 18 FRASER, MARK 106.9 19 HICKEY, THOMAS 105.1 20 FRANSON, CODY 103.3 Also, bottom 20: 248 ELLERBY, KEATON -113.1 249 KEITH, DUNCAN -116.2 250 LARSSON, ADAM -116.2 251 MACDONALD, ANDREW -117.9 252 KUBA, FILIP -118.4 253 SUTER, RYAN -123.5 254 REGEHR, ROBYN -124.0 255 HAMONIC, TRAVIS -124.9 256 SEABROOK, BRENT -125.2 257 MURRAY, DOUGLAS -126.2 258 ZANON, GREG -130.4 259 O_BYRNE, RYAN -135.5 260 GRYBA, ERIC -135.6 261 LASHOFF, BRIAN -144.3 262 JACKMAN, BARRET -150.5 263 STUART, BRAD -156.0 264 SALVADOR, BRYCE -175.8 265 ORPIK, BROOKS -187.8 266 DEL_ZOTTO, MICHAEL -199.7 267 SCUDERI, ROB -280.0

Now I feel like the only one posting here, but I updated the spreadsheet. Upped the TOI limit while doing a regression analysis from 50 to 200 min. Improved the R^2 values by quite a bit, especially for CA20 among defencemen (R^2 = 0.52; p < 0.001).

This season: http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/3000489/Dickey_Error_Jul_31_medium.gif

So I applied this stat for defencemen during the 2012-13 season (SSS issues may become more of a problem here, especially in a lockout-shortened season). Who was the best defencemen of the year based on dCorsi? The winner is... Christian Ehrhoff! Top 20 of the year by dCorsi (>50 min TOI): # Player Name dCorsi 1 EHRHOFF, CHRISTIAN 309.4 2 BOYLE, DAN 184.3 3 VISNOVSKY, LUBOMIR 173.8 4 DILLON, BRENDEN 172.0 5 SCHENN, LUKE 170.5 6 LETANG, KRIS 168.5 7 KOSTKA, MICHAEL 168.3 8 MUZZIN, JAKE 168.1 9 STRALMAN, ANTON 164.4 10 HEDMAN, VICTOR 164.1 11 BRODIE, TJ 160.2 12 VLASIC, MARC-EDOUARD 155.8 13 TIMONEN, KIMMO 154.7 14 SUBBAN, P.K. 136.9 15 MCDONAGH, RYAN 132.9 16 BRODIN, JONAS 132.4 17 FRANSON, CODY 122.7 18 FRASER, MARK 118.6 19 HICKEY, THOMAS 116.0 20 GOLIGOSKI, ALEX 111.5

Just for fun, closest comparables between players based on a combo of dCF20 and dCA20 (07-13 seasons): - Cody Franson - Ryan McDonagh - Carl Gunnarsson - Marc Staal and Anton Volchenkov - Dion Phaneuf - Nicklas Lidstrom (age effect to consider) - David Clarkson - Clarke MacArthur and Dominic Moore - Dave Bolland - Jiri Tlusty - Tyler Bozak - Fernando Pisani - Joffrey Lupul - TJ Hensick? - Phil Kessel - Rick Nash Extra: - Alex Semin - Marian Hossa

*sigh* I hate being right sometimes.