http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2000&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,a
Highest FIP-ERA season of the last 15 years. And his xFIP is even worse. Absolutely littered with pitchers who shortly regressed to their peripherals. Hellickson was a FIP-beating darling until he wasn't. So was Cahill. Romero. Fister last year.
If you're buying Estrada next year, you have to be counting on one of two things:
- He gives you 30 starts of 4-4.5 ERA ball.
- He improves his skill level randomly at the age of 33.
Gambling 16M on his ability to beat peripherals by a full run would be lunacy. I don't think anyone will do it.