BTS
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Everything posted by BTS
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Yeah, that and being an extreme flyball guy point to someone who's probably going to have an ERA less than his DIPS. But not 1.8 better than his DIPS. Every projection system will probably have him with an ERA over 4, and like 2 tenths of a run less than his DIPS.
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Yeah, that and being an extreme flyball guy point to someone who's probably going to have an ERA less than his DIPS. But not 1.8 better than his DIPS. Every projection system will probably have him with an ERA over 4, and like 2 tenths of a run less than his DIPS.
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What are some recent FA comps to Estrada? Off the top of my head: - Jason Vargas pre-2014 (4/32) - Chris Young pre-2015 (1/700K + bonuses) - Aaron Harang pre-2015 (1/5) - Kyle Kendrick pre-2015 (1/5.5) Jason Hammel pre-2015 and Colon pre-2014 would have projected better than Estrada will and signed for 2/20. I think someone will probably go to something like 2/16 for him and he'll throw like 300 innings of ~4.3 ERA ball as a 5th starter.
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Did you not watch Bannister leave Perez in to face Donaldson, Bautista and Edwin for a third time yesterday? Have you not watched Ned Yost hit Alex Gordon 8th all playoffs? -
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2000&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,a Highest FIP-ERA season of the last 15 years. And his xFIP is even worse. Absolutely littered with pitchers who shortly regressed to their peripherals. Hellickson was a FIP-beating darling until he wasn't. So was Cahill. Romero. Fister last year. If you're buying Estrada next year, you have to be counting on one of two things: - He gives you 30 starts of 4-4.5 ERA ball. - He improves his skill level randomly at the age of 33. Gambling 16M on his ability to beat peripherals by a full run would be lunacy. I don't think anyone will do it.
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Because as much as I've criticized this FO, I don't believe they'd spend $15.8M on a guy that anyone reasonable will project to have an ERA well over 4.
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He won't be offered a QO.
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He won't be offered a QO.
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Letting Estrada walk will be one of the best decisions of the offseason.
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No, but it sure puts things into perspective when other playoff managers mismanage games in ways that Gibby would never dream of doing. Letting Perez start the 6th inning against Donaldso, Bautista, and Edwin, and then bringing in Chi-Chi, and then having him pitch to Tulo 3-1 with 1B open, 2 out, runners on 2nd and 3rd, and Navarro on deck.
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I hope everyone who thinks Gibby is a bad manager has taken notice of Yost's work for KC and Bannister's decisions tonight.
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Because I like baseball...
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It's unbelievable. Perez starting the 6th against the big three, and then Chi Chi not walking Tulo. Terrible, terrible management.
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Why was Gonzalez throwing a strike to Tulo with 1B open and 2 out? Horrible mismanagement that inning by Bannister.
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Wow, leaving Perez out for the 6th was egregious. I'd be livid if I was a Texas fans.
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Astros with a 3-1 lead
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omg
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Is Estrada the right choice for tonight?
BTS replied to reedjohnsonfan's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
I'd start Dickey. I think he's the better pitcher, and then there's the Dickey effect. -
Yeah. I'd be shocked if there's a discount. He's been underpaid through a long stretch as one of the games elite players. He'll be looking to exceed V-Mart money.
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Not saying I'd do it, necessarily, but you could defend it. Bautista = ~ 4 wins + comp pick Betances = 3 wins + $13M + another 3 years of control It's a moot point anyway because I suspect he'll be retained, but value wise it wouldn't be a bad deal if they weren't going to re-sign him.
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I wonder who fans would be more comfortable giving a 4/80 deal to: Edwin or Bautista. Both are probably 1B in 2017 and beyond.
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I think you could make a case for trading Bautista for Betances. Maybe. Can't think of another one.
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Moving discussions to different threads is over moderation IMO. Discussions should be able to follow a natural course as long as nobody is trolling. This isn't HFboards.
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Are the Red Sox going to acquire a front rotation starter this offseason, or is the plan to roster five Wade Mileys again?
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I don't really understand the desire to keep Price. He's going to exceed 210M on a 7-year deal and he's already 30. If they do that, they have him, Martin, Tulo, and Donaldson locked in at ~90M, with Bautista and Edwin costing another 40+ if they're retained. I really think they should be looking at 2nd-tier free agent arms like Chen, Anderson, Leake, Lacke, Samardzija, Latos. Preferably on a 1-year commitment. Bautista, Edwin, Dickey, Cecil and Smoak all hit free agency after next year. A big pitching contract this offseason could really tie their hands.
