BTS
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I don't really see why pagan would get more than Aoki did in his last two deals (1/4 and 1/5.5). Maybe he goes to 1/6 or 1/7 or something?
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I could see him signing for like 1/5 + an option or something and providing close to 2 wins from LF. Would love that signing.
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Yeah, this team really needs to invest in a high-end 3B.
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Two years ago Osuna was entering his age-20 season and had never pitched in AA. He was a fringy top-100 type. Him throwing 143 MLB innings in his first two seasons with a 2.63 ERA, 3.1 fWAR, 3.4 WPA, and 4.3 RA-9 WAR while probably sitting top-5 in reliever trade value is him turning into a very big success IMO. This is a prospect who panned out beautifully, and as low as my opinion is of AA, I think this actually turned out well.
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Really happy about four of the things he said: - hasn't decided on QO for Saunders (hopefully this is a polite way of saying Saunders) - Osuna is a permanent reliever (I think this is for the best) - wants a good backup catcher who can have productive ABs (no more Thole, and they probably won't start the season with a Jimenez or McGuire) - referenced the strong market for OF/1B in free agency (intends to make use of the free agent market) No red flags at all in that interview. Except saying Bautista is a competent OF. Really hoping he doesn't return.
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Yeah, it's over. Osuna will never start here.
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Not a whole lot there really. Biggest takeaways: - QO will be offered to Bautista and Edwin - still not sure on QO for Saunders - Osuna is a reliever permanently - They'd like to bring Biagini to camp as a starter - would be willing to go 3+ years on a contract for a reliever - "Looking for back-up catcher who can handle our pitching staff, be a leader, give a productive at-bat." I like what he said about Osuna and the backup catcher position. I bet we see the team in on Suzuki, Hundley, and Castro
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that's bait
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Yeah, that would be a steal. I think he gets closer to 8/240.
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Tellez is interesting. There are no red flags in his numbers, and yet scouty types (like Eric Longenhagen) keep saying they think the swing won't work against MLB pitching.
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Mike Trout.
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If I'm putting money on Osuna best days being either ahead of him or behind, I'm taking behind. Would anyone be surprised if his arm explodes?
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Recent comps are the Kimbrel and Giles trades. So lots.
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Not sure either of those are clearly better right now. Probably Diaz, but I'd like to see more than 50 innings from him.
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We're really debating whether Osuna is a top-20 reliever? I think the list of guys who are clearly better is Britton, Miller, Chapman, Betances, and Jansen.
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I don't think he's written anyone off. He's pointed out that his bat has declined, and that his defense probably will too as he gets to his mid 30s.
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It's a terrible way to evaluate a relief pitcher.
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Giving Price to Boston seems to be working out alright.
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I'd be shocked if most GMs weren't looking at some proprietary version of WAR. Dave Stewart obviously wasn't, but things have really changed in the last 5-10 years.
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I wouldn't assume that either. I'm not sure that there's any one metric that does a good job capturing the value of a very good reliever. fWAR isn't sufficient for the reasons I've stated. RA-9 WAR has its own issues, and WPA relies too much on context. I'm comfortable saying that I think Morrow was less valuable than his fWAR indicates, and that I think he would have been a very good reliever, and that I think very good relievers are undervalued by fWAR. I'm not saying it was a mistake that he was used as a starter, but I think it's possible that he would have added more value in relief (probable was too strong, and relies too much on subjective preferences in evaluating how valuable a pitcher is). You mentioned Cecil earlier. Two people could go on for pages debating whether or not he would have been more valuable as a starter, and both could make valid and convincing arguments. In the end the decision was fine, and it might at the same time have cut into his value to the team.
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Not necessarily, but I do think they're undervalued by fWAR for two reasons: they tend to have ERAs lower than their FIPs, and they pitch a lot of high leverage innings.
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I didn't say 2-WAR reliever.
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You'd have to think that he would have been less prone to injury in the pen to buy the argument. I'm pretty comfortable saying Morrow would have been worth close to two wins a year in high leverage relief.
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Looking at it now, he averaged about 2 fWAR and 1 RA/9 WAR/year here. Depending on how much of that you attribute to bad luck he was either a solid starter or a back end guy. Any reason to think a starter with contact management problems would manage that better in relief?
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You know what's crazy? Those Morrow debates started 7 years ago. And yeah, in hindsight Toronto probably would have extracted more value from Morrow as a high leverage reliever.
