crrr

Citing Rajai's 80 PA's in 2013 and neglecting his bad 2011 and 2012 is very misguided. Melky was about what Snider was until 2011, where there seems to be a structural change in his statistics/performance. Ignoring the existence of structural change is a major statistical faux-pas. Also, continually citing Melky's hamstring issues, and ignoring those of Rajai's isn't very honest. One is playing, the other is not. "I stand by my previous commentary. Neither is successful right now given what we expect from a corner outfielder. Both are about the same" Under your scenario, right now we would be using Snider versus everyone. Even Pitt won't do that. Also your 'what if' scenarios are not the same. Snider has not shown power for some time, and Melky has shown to be a top tier average hitter for two years now. To pretend these two situations are equally likely - Snider hitting for power and Melky hitting for average, is just completely unfounded. So, I respect your "gut feeling" that the platoon may be better. I see no reason why going into the year one should have expected it would be.

Also, another questionable assumption in your analysis is that either Snider or Davis are good fielders. They are not.

Typically in this sort of analysis one attempts to weigh more recent statistics more. I'm not even sure how you got to .270 given that that's the maximum of their career averages. Assuming you broke it down in splits, you completely neglected the fact that there are many more RHers than LHers in the league, and so you should weigh the stats towards the .250 of Snider, who would be playing more. Using recent statistics more, Rajai hasn't hit his career average vs LHers in a few years, and Snider has hovered around his. But, to remove some of the stupidity of this argument, one should also note over the last several years, the OBP of Melky has been much better than both Snider and Rajai, and if we use statistics from the last 3 years, which one could reasonably argue are much more indicative compared to their career rates, Melky is simply an incomparably better than a Snider/Rajai platoon, given Snider would get many more ABs.

That's what I'm saying, a .320 hitter is huge, Snider isn't huge so we can go very far down before we hit where Snider is, which seems to be a maximum of .270 hitter when played only versus RHers. Also, the notion that a .320 hitting left fielder is 'probably a good player' is a substantial understatement. I won't look through the history, but I doubt too many outfielders have hit .320 and had a bad year. A Snider/Rajai platoon is almost certainly worse than a .280 Melky.

Snider is showing he can be a somewhat valuable platoon player, nothing more.

I guess what I'm saying is that Melky is likely better than Snider even if he hits .270. As someone noted, Pitt is hiding Snider vs LHers, and he's not even really tearing up the RHers he's facing. also, I dont think it's very reasonable to expect Snider to go on a power tear, his power has dried up considerably

I don't see why Melky would need to be a .320 hitter to justify that chain of moves.

I mean for his general struggles throughout his career

As Morris said, I think it's much more related to hanging sliders up in the zone

lol, another bad slide...

I'm not a big believer in war, but he has 0.6 WAR, and given our replacement guys are pretty poor, it really doesn't make any sense

I'm interested in whatever makes them stop lo-vistaing

My main point is for a win now team, prospects, especially one in A ball are of little value. Obviously TDA was thought to be able to contribute, but they may have known a bit more than we do about his durability, which looks like a fairly major concern going forward. There was plenty of reason to believe the team was good, and there still is. They've played much better in May than April, they just got screwed by the fact they put up a terrible April. It also doesn't help that they have had some fairly major injuries

I'm not really trying to evaluate whether it was a good trade or not, I just think people around here over value the return on prospects, especially guys still IN A ball. As it stands right now, if Dickey were having a half decent season this would be looking pretty good

I think his main point is that you can say that about any prospect...

To be fair, he's still pitching in A-ball, long time until we see how that stuff matches up vs the top tier guys

especially if you reduce the time horizon to 3, as it probably discounts very quickly... Also, I'm not sure the evaluation for them was money based, so you have to keep in mind too. They wanted major leaguers now...

Well he's at 0.6 war, if you increase that discount rate the value becomes much closer...

So, based on that what is Syndergaard and d'Arnaud really worth relative to Dickey? Jays are definitely in win mode now so for them you should discount even more... Also, I would say it's accurate to say Syndergaard and d'Arnaud are really close to 50 and 20, respectively... Also d'Arnaud is injured so he's providing 0 value. Dickey would be around 6 minimum, I would say based on how they do it.

They showed a statistic today which said people are hittiner .400 on his fastball, and I tihnk like .263 on the Knuckler. The main problem here is he's having some trouble getting over. Given that hasnt been a major problem for him for some time, I feel pretty confident he'll figure it out

A top 50 pitching prospect...? What portion of top 50 pitching prospects pitch 300 innings in the MLB?

Have you not watched him over the last 3 weeks? He's clearly converging to that..

Oh no, a Dinger thought!

I'm going to go with 1-8

The sad thing is it's true. They just don't have any games to give away.