Tim Dierkes - MLBTR via MLBTR mailbag
Do you know if Vlad Jr.’s launch angle has improved this year in spring training, as that seems to have been the problem with him hitting home runs the last couple of years? He's getting a lot of hits in spring training but only one home run, I think.
It’s true that Vlad Jr. has only popped one home run in his 33 spring plate appearances through Monday, but he’s also slugging .840 due to four additional extra-base hits. But Guerrero’s launch angle is a real concern - he hits the ball as hard as just about anyone, but too often into the ground.
In 2020, Vlad posted 93rd percentile exit velocity at just a 4.6 degree average launch angle, the latter of which was among the lowest in the game. 90th percentile for launch angle is greater than 17.6 degrees, according to Baseball HQ. The launch angle leaderboard matches up well with the top home run hitters, led by Joey Gallo at 26.8 degrees. There are a few exceptions - Juan Soto had an even lower launch angle than Vlad, and Eloy Jimenez was not much better.
Though Guerrero famously lost 42 pounds in the offseason, he indicated he did not make mechanical adjustments to his swing to attempt to hit the ball in the air more. He’s got his launch angle up to 9.7 degrees this spring, which would at least be middle of the pack, but that’s on a sample of just 24 batted balls. Of the 43 players with data on at least 20 batted balls this spring, Vlad’s launch angle ranks 26th.
Guerrero’s launch angle was 6.7 degrees in 2019. I think we should take him at his word: he said he didn’t adjust his swing. If I were a betting man, I’d project fewer than 30 home runs for Vlad Jr. this year.