Built for the Moment, Trey Yesavage Gets the Ball for Game 6

Trey Yesavage is built for this.

How could he not be? His season so far has been somewhat of a fairytale: he's gone from being drafted a mere 15 months ago to playing across five different levels in one season, and not only pitching in the major leagues, but doing so in some of the biggest games the Blue Jays franchise has had in over a decade. His signature moment so far was when he started Game 2 of the Division Series against the Yankees with a historic performance, striking out 11 and helping the Blue Jays make it through to the ALCS.

Yesavage is about to face his biggest challenge yet. After helping the Blue Jays move past the Yankees, he’ll get an even bigger test this weekend. On Friday, it was confirmed that he will be the starter for Game 6, which, after the Blue Jays' 6-2 loss to the Mariners in Game 5, became a win-or-go-home game for the team, which is a lot of pressure for anyone, let alone a 22-year-old with just five big league starts to his name.

If Yesavage pitches anything like he did in the division series, then it won’t be an issue. If any pitcher gets through five without allowing a hit, then odds are his team is going to win that game. But then there is the chance that he pitches like he did in Game 2 of the ALCS. This saw Yesavage show signs of being beatable, as the Mariners got him for five earned runs while walking three times and striking out just four over four innings on Monday. The five earned runs are the most he’s allowed in a start in his short big league career, with the four walks being the most as well.

Not only that, Yesavage had some more question marks as the start went on. In the first inning, he hit the leadoff hitter Randy Arozarena (after a missed strike three call), then walked Cal Raleigh, and then Julio Rodríguez took a splitter that caught too much of the plate on a 1-2 count and sent it deep into left field. Three batters in, Yesavage was down 3-0. For the first time in his career, the adversity had set in.

Looking under the hood, his average fastball velocity in that inning sat at 94.8 mph, which was right around his season average of 94.7 mph, so nothing out of the ordinary there. But as the game continued, it started to decline:

• 1st inning - 94.8 mph
• 2nd inning - 94.3 mph
• 3rd inning - 93.1 mph
• 4th inning - 92.8 mph

You can see it dropping on the following chart from Baseball Savant:

A drop in velocity could mean many things. It could be fatigue, it could be the sign of a minor injury, or maybe he didn’t have enough calories in him. Who really knows, but with the Blue Jays now facing a win-or-go-home situation, it could be a risky proposition to start Yesavage if he is indeed not 100%.

Could the workload be catching up to him? It wouldn't be unimaginable. Yesavage has pitched more this season than he ever has in his career. In college, the highest innings total he reached in a season was 93.1, and so far this season, he’s thrown 121.1 IP, with the most recent of those being in high-stress situations.  The Blue Jays were cautious about his innings jump while he was in the minor league; he made piggyback starts and even came out of the bullpen a few times. But this could be a sign that the innings jump is starting to get to him.

There is also the possibility that Yesavage may be dealing with some injury. This was always somewhat of a concern for the righty, who throws at such a unique arm slot. While that is very good for causing deception, because hitters just don't see that type of pitcher that often, there may be a link to elbow issues. Baseball America ran a study (which can be read here) that discovered that pitchers who have a lower arm slot suffer significantly less joint stress at both the elbow and the shoulder. So, while his arm slot helps him generate deception, it also introduces biomechanical quirks that could increase the risk of injury or fatigue.

Now, this doesn’t necessarily mean that Yesavage is injured or that he is doomed to have surgery, but pair this with the sudden loss of velocity, and it may be enough to raise some eyebrows or at least cause some level of concern. But John Schneider doesn’t seem worried. After Game 2, the skipper did hint that the velocity drop was part of the reason Yesavage got the hook when he did, but there haven't been any signs of major concern. There’s been no news about Yesavage getting looked at, and no one on the Blue Jays coaching staff seems worried about it, so even if there is some doubt, he’ll be good to go this evening.

It is also worth considering that his struggles could have been related to something happening off the field. Before his Game 2 start, Yesavage spoke to the media about how people close to him were being harassed for his performance on the field, and he specifically mentioned his parents, girlfriend and brother. Baseball players are human too and go through all the same emotions that everyone else has. It could be possible that maybe his head wasn’t in the right space. If you're thinking about how your performance can affect the people you love and care about, it's very reasonable to see how that could cause your performance on the mound to fluctuate.

For what it's worth, Yesavage has earned the trust of the coaching staff and front office, and the Blue Jays are going with their talented rookie phenom to start in what has now become a must-win game. If the Blue Jays lose, their season is over, and the magical run comes to an end. If they win, the Blue Jays will head to their franchise's second-ever Game 7, hoping to earn a spot in the World Series for the third time in franchise history.

Trey Yesavage says he’s built for this, and even after the small hiccup in Game 2, I believe in him. Most importantly, the Blue Jays do too.