The Blue Jays' Top Three Starters Need A Boost At The Trade Deadline, Here Are Options

As the MLB deadline approaches, many rumours are swirling around the Blue Jays. Media speculation includes Toronto’s interest in improving the bullpen, acquiring a right-handed power bat, and adding a pitcher to the starting rotation.

The performance of the Blue Jays’ starting rotation has declined since 2023, when their starters produced a 3.85 ERA, followed by a 3.95 ERA in 2024 and a 4.55 ERA thus far in 2025. Among American League rotations, those ERA marks ranked second, ninth, and thirteenth, respectively. Part of that decline in 2025 is attributable to the underperformance of the starters not named José Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, and Bowden Francis. The other starters have produced a 5.79 ERA in 74 2/3 innings (15% of all innings pitched by Toronto’s starters).

However, the performance of the Big Three (Berrios, Gausman, and Bassitt) has negatively regressed after the 2022 campaign. The ERAs of the Big Three were 3.48, 3.85, and 3.98 in 2023, 2024, and 2025. On a relative basis, the difference between the American League Average Starter ERA and the Big Three’s ERA has steadily declined. The delta in 2023 was 0.86 (4.34 – 3.48), 0.21 (4.06 – 3.85) in 2024, and 0.06 (4.04 – 3.98) this campaign. Indeed, Eric Lauer’s 3.61 ERA has been a pleasant surprise. Yet, Scherzer’s 4.70 ERA and his late-career injury history, combined with the performance decline of the Big Three, cast doubts about the Toronto starting rotation’s ability to perform at an elite level in the postseason.

During the playoffs, teams do not need a five-man rotation due to the number of off days. From 2014 to 2024, on average, three starters accounted for 83% of the starts of a World Series team. However, a fourth starting pitcher was needed to cover most of the remaining starts. Please note that I excluded 2020 because, due to the pandemic,  the season and postseason were unusual.

In constructing Table 2, I calculated the ERA, xERA, and FIP percentile rankings of MLB starters who pitched a minimum of 20 innings in 2025 (193 starters qualified). Because ERA, xERA, and FIP are all useful pitching metrics, I then calculated the average of these percentile rankings. For example, Lauer’s ERA, xERA, and FIP percentile rankings were 61, 86, and 67, respectively. Hence, the reader will observe that Lauer’s average of his ERA, xERA, and FIP percentile rankings is 72. Additionally, for each team’s rotation, I assumed that teams would use their best-performing starters (those with the highest average of their respective ERA, xERA, and FIP percentile rankings or those starters with the highest ERA percentile rankings) regardless. For example, Lauer will be part of the Top 4 and 3, but Scherzer will not. Please note that the percentiles and the related average were calculated to the fourth decimal place. Hence, the average presented may be one percentile point higher or lower due to rounding.

Concerning starter slot numbers, I prefer to use the percentile rankings of a given metric. For example, a starting pitcher with an ERA that ranks in the 81st to 100th percentile is a#1 starter. A starter with an ERA that ranks in the 61st to 80th percentile is a #2. A #3 is a starter with an ERA in the 41st to 60th percentile. And on.

I also applied this approach to evaluating a team’s Top 4, Top 3, and so on. Accordingly, Toronto’s Top 3’s average of the ERA, xERA, and FIP percentile rankings is at the lower range of a #2 starter. Now compare Toronto’s Top 3 to those of the Tigers, Astros, and Yankees. They have Top 3 starters in the lower end of the #1 starter slot. In other words, thus far in 2025, the Top 3 of those foes are decidedly better than Toronto’s. Furthermore, the Tigers, Astros, Yankees, and Red Sox have much superior #1 starters than Toronto. Additionally, based on ERA, Toronto’s starter groupings (Top 4, Top 3, etc.) fall well short of the other listed teams.

Toronto would greatly benefit if it acquired a starter who can be a number one or number two. Let us begin the search!

The criteria I used to select starter targets are as follows:

• Any team with a probability of making the postseason of 25% or less (as of July 20) is a seller.  Please refer to FanGraphs for the list of teams.
• A starter must have a trade value (per Baseball Trade Values as of July 20) of less than $40 million.
• Starting pitchers must have a minimum of 300 career MLB innings pitched.
• I excluded any pitcher, currently on the 60-day Injured List, and not scheduled to return until after the July 31 trade deadline. 
• The average of a starter's ERA, xERA, and FIP percentile rankings must be higher than 60.

I use Baseball Trade Values as the source for player trade value because it is an objective third-party with a good, yet not perfect, track record. Ultimately, the market determines a player’s trade value, and various factors influence that value, including demand and supply, trade deadline pressure, and different approaches to valuing players. For an explanation of how BTV values players, please refer to this and this. 

Concerning the $40 million threshold, I selected that cut-off number because Toronto has a limited number of high-end trade chips. Hence, because Toronto’s three most valued prospects (per BTV) have a total value of $54.1 million, the Blue Jays are unlikely to have the player capital needed to acquire Paul Skenes ($132.9 million BTV) or Hunter Greene ($130.6 million BTV).

Lo, and behold, Table 4, the list of trade targets! Please note that the “availability” assessment is according to BTV. Although the names in Table 4 are interesting, what matters is the impact an acquired starter would have on Toronto during the remainder of the 2025 season and the postseason. If only there were a table handy to see the impact of an acquired starter on the Blue Jays’ fortunes. Hmmm. Wouldn’t you know it, there is! See Table 5.

Table 5 is Table 2’s data with the insertion of a selection of player metrics found in Table 4. The highlights from Table 5 are as follows:

• Based on 2025’s numbers, Trevor Rogers, Adrian Houser, or Kris Bubic would vault Toronto’s rotation into the upper echelon of the listed AL ballclubs.
• Sonny Gray or Merrill Kelly would improve the Blue Jays’ collection of starters but would not significantly move the needle.
• Many MLB observers have identified Mitch Keller as a trade target, but his 2025 performance is similar to that of Gray and Kelly.
• Like Keller, some people have opined that Seth Lugo should be a trade target for Toronto. Although his ERA is 85th percentile, his xERA and FIP marks are 36th and 49th percentile, respectively. I am not keen on Lugo.

Starter Targets
Rogers would be my #1 target. Admittedly, I am cheating because it is unlikely that Baltimore would make him available. However, it is hard to overlook the significant impact he would make on Toronto’s 2025 rotation, as shown in Table 5. Although his 2024 season was disappointing, it was likely due to his recovery from injuries. Furthermore, Rogers is under team control for the 2026 season, and his current salary is $2.6 million (2026 will be his final arb year). Although the acquisition cost is higher than Kelly’s and Houser’s, Rogers’s 2025 performance and 2026 contract status make him a worthwhile investment, justifying the higher acquisition cost.

Kelly would be a solid #2 starter. He would be a high-quality addition that would bolster the overall performance of Toronto’s rotation. As Table 6 shows, his ERA- has been better than average in the past three seasons. Lastly, Kelly’s BTV is not onerous. On the negative side, Kelly would be a rental.

As Table 5 shows, Houser’s average of his ERA, xERA, and FIP percentile rankings would noticeably improve the relative status of Toronto’s starting rotation. Additionally, his low BTV would give Toronto’s management more remaining assets to make other acquisitions than a Rogers trade would. My concern with Houser is whether he can maintain his current performance level. However, his FIP suggests that he can maintain his pitching prowess for the balance of the 2025 campaign. Lastly, like Kelly, Houser would be a rental.

The Last Word
Toronto’s starting rotation has underperformed this year. Although the depth starters have not pitched well, the Big Three have been around league average. Furthermore, given the need to use four starters in the postseason, Toronto’s Top 4 and Top 3, for that matter, lag the American League teams they may face in the postseason. Accordingly, if Toronto adds a high-quality starting pitcher for the balance of the 2025 season and the postseason, Blue Jays' management would enhance the odds of making the playoffs and succeeding in them. My preferred starter targets, from most desired to least, are Rogers, Kelly, and Houser.